System and method for predicting external events from electronic author activity

• US 7,844,483 B2
• Filed: 02/26/2007
• Issued: 11/30/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 10/11/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Buzzmetrics, Ltd. (Nielsen Holdings plc)
• Original Assignee: Buzzmetrics, Ltd. (Nielsen Holdings plc)
• Inventors: Holtzman, David, Arnett, Nicholas D., Pool, David
• Primary Examiner(s): MEINECKE DIAZ, SUSANNA M
• Application Number:
  US11/710,742
• Publication Number:
  US 20070150335A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,373 Days
• Field of Search: 705/10
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 21/31 User authentication
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 21/6254 by anonymising data, e.g. decorrelating personal data from the owner's identification
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2221/2117 User registration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 51/216 Handling conversation history, e.g. grouping of messages in sessions or threads
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 63/0407 wherein the identity of one or more communicating identities is hidden cryptographic mechanisms or cryptographic arrangements for anonymous credentials or for identity based cryptographic systems H04L9/00
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 65/1101 Session protocols
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 9/40 Network security protocols

Abstract

A system and method for collecting and analyzing electronic discussion messages to categorize the message communications and to identify trends and patterns in pre-determined markets. The system comprises an electronic data discussion system wherein electronic messages are collected and analyzed according to characteristics and data inherent in the messages. Objective data is collected by the system for use in analyzing the electronic discussion data against real-world events to facilitate trend analysis and event forecasting based on the volume, nature and content of messages posted to electronic discussion forums. The message posting activity of a plurality of posters can be tracked to determine the tendency of individual posters to initiate or moderate discussions, accurately predict events external to the discussion forums, accelerate or decelerate a buzz level in a forum, or precede a rising market or a falling market.

Claims

1. A system for processing messages collected from a plurality of electronic discussion forums, comprising:

a processor;

a computer-readable medium storing machine readable instructions;

a message collector for collecting messages from the plurality of electronic discussion forums;

a message processor for processing the messages according to a series of topics, wherein the message processor processes the messages to compute a relevance value of a message to at least one topic from the series of topics;

a data analyzer for tracking a plurality of pseudonyms posting in the plurality of electronic discussion forums based on the processing of the messages, and for generating output related to posting activity of the plurality of pseudonyms on the at least one topic, wherein the data analyzer is to identify changes in discussion level following postings by one of the pseudonyms in the plurality of pseudonyms to identify a tendency of the postings of the pseudonym to accelerate or decelerate a buzz level in a forum; and

a report generator for generating a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the output of the data analyzer, wherein the change in the discussion level is an increased discussion level in a single discussion thread of the electronic discussion forums wherein the message processor, the data analyzer, and the report generator are implemented with the processor executing the machine readable instructions stored on the computer-readable medium.

2. A system for processing messages collected from a plurality of electronic discussion forums, comprising:

a processor;

a computer-readable medium storing machine readable instructions;

a message collector for collecting messages from the plurality of electronic discussion forums;

a message processor for processing the messages according to a series of topics, wherein the message processor processes the messages to compute a relevance value of a message to at least one topic from the series of topics;

a data analyzer for tracking a plurality of pseudonyms posting in the plurality of electronic discussion forums based on the processing of the messages, and for generating output related to posting activity of the plurality of pseudonyms on the at least one topic, wherein the data analyzer is to identify changes in discussion level following postings by one of the pseudonyms in the plurality of pseudonyms to identify a tendency of the postings of the pseudonym to accelerate or decelerate a buzz level in a forum; and

a report generator for generating a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the output of the data analyzer, wherein the change in the discussion level is an increase in the number of distinct pseudonyms posting on the electronic discussion forums, wherein the message collector, the message processor, the data analyzer, and the report generator are implemented with the processor executing the machine readable instructions stored on the computer-readable medium.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein the data analyzer processes past external events in order to classify a pseudonym and the output is affected by such classification.

4. The system of claim 3, wherein the classified pseudonym is given a score based on the classification.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein the score is one of a high, low, or medium score.

6. The system of claim 3, wherein the classification relates to the tendency of the pseudonym to initiate or moderate discussions in a forum.

7. The system of claim 3, wherein the classification relates to the tendency of postings by the pseudonym to precede a rising market or a falling market.

8. The system of claim 3, wherein the classification relates to the tendency of the postings by the pseudonym to accelerate the buzz level without measurably affecting future external events.

9. A computer-implemented method for processing messages collected from a plurality of electronic discussion forums, comprising:

collecting the messages with a computer system from the plurality of electronic discussion forums;

processing the messages with a computer system according to a series of topics, and computing a relevance value of a message to at least one topic from the series of topics;

tracking a plurality of pseudonyms posting in the plurality of electronic discussion forums based on the processing of the messages and identifying a tendency of postings with one of the pseudonyms in the plurality of pseudonyms to precede an increased discussion level in the electronic discussion forums or to precede a decreased discussion level in the electronic discussion forums; and

generating, with a computer system, a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the result of tracking, wherein the increased discussion level is an increased discussion level in a single discussion thread of the electronic discussion forums.

10. A computer-implemented method for processing messages collected from a plurality of electronic discussion forums, comprising:

collecting the messages with a computer system from the plurality of electronic discussion forums;

processing the messages with a computer system according to a series of topics, and computing a relevance value of a message to at least one topic from the series of topics;

tracking a plurality of pseudonyms posting in the plurality of electronic discussion forums based on the processing of the messages and identifying a tendency of postings by one of the pseudonyms in the plurality of pseudonyms to precede an increased discussion level in the electronic discussion forums or to precede a decreased discussion level in the electronic discussion forums; and

generating, with a computer system, a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the result of tracking, wherein the increased discussion level is an increase in the number of distinct pseudonyms posting on the electronic discussion forums.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein tracking the plurality of pseudonyms includes processing past events in order to classify the pseudonym.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the classified pseudonym is given a score based on the classification.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the score is one of a high, low, or medium score.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein the classification relates to the tendency of the pseudonym to initiate or moderate discussions in a forum.

15. The method of claim 11, wherein the classification relates to the tendency of the pseudonym to accelerate or decelerate a buzz level in a forum.

16. The method of claim 11, wherein the classification relates to the tendency of postings by the pseudonym to precede a rising market or a falling market.

17. The method of claim 11, wherein the classification relates to the tendency of postings by the pseudonym to accelerate a buzz level without measurably affecting future external events.

18. An article of manufacture storing machine readable instructions that, when executed, cause a processor to:

collect messages from a plurality of electronic discussion forums;

process the messages according to a series of topics to compute a relevance value of a message to at least one topic from the series of topics;

track a plurality of pseudonyms posting in the plurality of electronic discussion forums based on the processing of the messages, and for generating output related to posting activity of the plurality of pseudonyms on the at least one topic;

identify changes in discussion level following postings by one of the pseudonyms in the plurality of pseudonyms to identify a tendency of the postings of the pseudonym to accelerate or decelerate a buzz level in a forum; and

generate a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the output of the data analyzer, wherein the change in the discussion level is an increased discussion level in a single discussion thread of the electronic discussion forums.

19. An article of manufacture storing machine readable instructions that, when executed, cause a processor to:

collect messages from a plurality of electronic discussion forums;

process the messages according to a series of topics to compute a relevance value of a message to at least one topic from the series of topics;

track a plurality of pseudonyms posting in the plurality of electronic discussion forums based on the processing of the messages, and for generating output related to posting activity of the plurality of pseudonyms on the at least one topic;

identify changes in discussion level following postings by one of the pseudonyms in the plurality of pseudonyms to identify a tendency of the postings of the pseudonym to accelerate or decelerate a buzz level in a forum; and

generate a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the output of the data analyzer, wherein the change in the discussion level is an increase in the number of distinct pseudonyms posting on the electronic discussion forums.