Method for determining an appropriate algorithm to apply for forecasting network access usage

• US 7,856,497 B2
• Filed: 03/07/2001
• Issued: 12/21/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 05/19/2000
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Synamedia Limited
• Original Assignee: Scientific-Atlanta LLC (Cisco Systems, Inc.)
• Inventors: McKinnon, Martin W. III, Ehrley, John Joseph, Subramanian, Mani M., Kolesnikov, Oleg M., Harrell, James E. Jr., Sotack, Timothy Sean
• Primary Examiner(s): Flynn; Nathan
• Assistant Examiner(s): Afolabi; Mark O
• Application Number:
  US10/276,654
• Publication Number:
  US 20090070454A1
• Time in Patent Office: 3,576 Days
• Field of Search: 709/220, 709/201, 709/219, 709/217, 709/218, 709/249, 709/238, 709/232, 709/224, 709/226, 709/203, 709/245, 707/501, 707/505, 707/506, 707/530, 707/513, 715/215, 715/735, 715/736, 715/740, 370/230, 370/231, 370/232, 370/352, 370/389, 370/229, 370/254, 370/360
• US Class Current: 709/224
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 12/2801 Broadband local area networks
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 12/2856 Access arrangements, e.g. Internet access asynchronous transfer mode networks H04L12/5601; broadband local area networks H04L12/2801; optical access or distribution networks H04Q11/0067; access to open networks H04L12/5691; digital subscriber line end-user equipment and bit-level processing of data on a PSTN-based network H04M11/00; home network gateways H04L12/2834; wireless access networks H04W
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 12/2861 Point-to-multipoint connection from the data network to the subscribers
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 12/2876 Handling of subscriber policies group policies management H04L41/0893
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/0896 Bandwidth or capacity management, i.e. automatically increasing or decreasing capacities flow or congestion control using dynamic resource allocation, e.g. in-call renegotiation, H04L47/76
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5003 Managing SLA; Interaction between SLA and QoS
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5009 Determining service level performance parameters or violations of service level contracts, e.g. violations of agreed response time or mean time between failures [MTBF]
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5019 Ensuring fulfilment of SLA
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5022 by giving priorities, e.g. assigning classes of service
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5029 Service quality level-based billing, e.g. dependent on measured service level customer is charged more or less
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5067 Customer-centric QoS measurements
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5087 wherein the managed service relates to voice services management of VoIP services H04M7/0081
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/509 wherein the managed service relates to media content delivery, e.g. audio, video or TV
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/00 Arrangements for monitoring or testing data switching networks
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/045 for graphical visualisation of monitoring data
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/06 Generation of reports
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/062 related to network traffic
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/067 using time frame reporting
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/0829 Packet loss
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/0876 : Network utilisation, e.g. volume of load or congestion level
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/0882 : Utilisation of link capacity
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/0888 : Throughput
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/106 : using time related information in packets, e.g. by adding timestamps
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/12 : Network monitoring probes
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/16 : Threshold monitoring
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/10 : Flow control; Congestion control
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/11 : Identifying congestion
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/15 : in relation to multipoint traffic arrangements for broadcast or multicast in data networks H04L12/18
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/20 : Traffic policing
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/24 : Traffic characterised by specific attributes, e.g. priority or QoS
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/263 : Rate modification at the source after receiving feedback
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/29 : using a combination of thresholds
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/70 : Admission control; Resource allocation
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/762 : triggered by the network
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/788 : Autonomous allocation of resources
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/805 : QOS or priority aware
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/808 : User-type aware
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/823 : Prediction of resource usage
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/824 : Applicable to portable or mobile terminals
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/826 : Involving periods of time
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/828 : Allocation of resources per group of connections, e.g. per group of users
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 47/83 : based on usage prediction
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/2385 : Channel allocation H04N21/266 takes precedence; Bandwidth allocation H04N21/24 takes precedence ; allocation of channels according to the instantaneous demands of the users in time-division multiplex systems H04J3/1682; admission control, resource allocation in open networks H04L12/5692; arrangements for maintenance or administration in data switching networks involving bandwidth and capacity management H04L41/0896; negotiating bandwidth in wireless networks H04W28/16
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/2408 : Monitoring of the upstream path of the transmission network, e.g. client requests monitoring data switching networks utilization H04L43/0876; scheduling or organising the servicing of application requests H04L67/60
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/6118 : involving cable transmission, e.g. using a cable modem
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/64738 : Monitoring network characteristics, e.g. bandwidth, congestion level data switched network analysis H04L41/14; monitoring functioning in data switched networks H04L43/0817; flow control in packet networks H04L47/10
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 7/17309 : Transmission or handling of upstream communications
• CPC Class Codes: Y02D 30/50 : in wire-line communication networks, e.g. low power modes or reduced link rate

Abstract

A method of providing network access across a shared communications medium between competing users (86) includes the step of allocating network access for each user for a future time interval (102). Features include forecasting network access (1100) of the users in a future time interval, and prioritizing the users for allocating network access to the users. The network access allocations represent network access allowances available to the users during the future time interval, and further may represent network access usage. Classes of users can be allocated network access first (1114), and then each user allocated network access from the class allocation.

Claims

1. A method of providing network access across a shared communications medium between competing users, the method comprising:

monitoring network access usage by each user during a time interval;

forecasting network access usage by each user during a future time interval based on said monitored network access usage by each user, wherein said forecasting comprises predicting future network access usage each user based upon monitored past network access usage patterns of each user, wherein the usage patterns of each user are analyzed to determine an appropriate algorithm to apply for forecasting network access usage; and

based on said forecasted network access usage, allocating network access to each user for the future time interval, wherein allocating network access comprises prioritizing each user, and wherein prioritizing each user comprises;

comparing said monitored network access usages for each user with a specified respective minimum levels of network access for each user, and

awarding priority to qualified users when said respective monitored network access usage for the qualified users falls below the qualified users'"'"' specified respective minimum level of network access.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein allocating network access comprises allocating network access to the users proportionally based on each user'"'"'s forecasted network access usage.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein said prioritizing is based on each user'"'"'s forecasted network access usage.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein users are prioritized based on an established minimum quality of service (QoS) standard.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein prioritizing is based on service level agreements (SLAs) of the users regarding the provision of network access.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein SLAs specify the respective minimum levels of network access for each user.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein each network access allocation represents a bandwidth allowance of a respective user during the future time interval.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein each network access allocation represents bandwidth to be utilized by each user during the future time interval.

9. A method of providing network access across a shared communications medium between competing users pursuant to service level agreements (SLAs) of the users, the method comprising:

monitoring network access usage by each user during a time interval;

comparing said monitored network access usage by each user with a predetermined threshold value;

determining if each user has a first assigned forecasting function;

assigning the first forecasting function to each user determined to not have a previously assigned forecasting function;

determining a usage pattern of each user having had assigned the first forecasting function;

assigning a second forecasting function to each user determined to have had assigned the first forecasting function and a qualified usage pattern;

forecasting future bandwidth of each user over a future time interval based on the monitored network access usage;

prioritizing each user for access to the forecasted future bandwidth, wherein prioritizing each user comprises;

comparing said monitored network access usages for each user with a specified respective minimum level of network access for each user, and

awarding priority to qualified users when said respective monitored network access usage for the qualified users falls below the qualified users'"'"' specified respective minimum level of network access; and

soliciting a user to modify the user'"'"'s SLA if the user'"'"'s monitored network access usage and the user'"'"'s forecasted future usage varies from the predetermined value by a predetermined tolerance.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein soliciting the user comprises contacting the user via email.

11. The method of claim 9, wherein soliciting the user comprises contacting the user via redirection of a web browser of the user to a solicitation web page.

12. The method of claim 9, wherein network access comprises bandwidth across the shared communications medium for consumption by each user in conveying data of the user.

13. The method of claim 9, further comprising, based on said monitored network access usage, allocating network access to each user for the future time interval.

14. A computerized method of allocating among a plurality of users bandwidth for conveying information across a shared communications medium, the method comprising:

receiving data representative of past bandwidth of each user during a time interval;

determining if each user has a first assigned forecasting function;

assigning the first forecasting function to each user determined to not have a previously assigned forecasting function;

determining if each user having had assigned the first forecasting function is associated with a seasonal pattern;

assigning a second forecasting function to each user determined to have had assigned the first forecasting function and a qualified seasonal pattern;

forecasting future bandwidth of each user over a future time interval based on the data representative of the past bandwidth;

prioritizing users, wherein prioritizing the users comprises;

comparing said monitored network access usages for each user with a specified respective minimum level of network access for each user, and

awarding priority to qualified users when said respective monitored network access usage for the qualified users falls below the qualified users'"'"' specified respective minimum level of network access; and

allocating bandwidth to each user sequentially in decreasing order of user priority.

15. The computerized method of claim 14, wherein the bandwidth data is the bandwidth requested for each user.

16. The computerized method of claim 14, wherein the bandwidth data is the bandwidth consumption of each user.

17. The computerized method of claim 16, wherein the bandwidth that is forecasted is based on the bandwidth consumption of each user.