Method and apparatus for evaluating fraud risk in an electronic commerce transaction
First Claim
1. A method for evaluating fraud risk in an electronic commerce transaction and providing a representation of the fraud risk to a merchant using electronic communication, the method comprising:
- generating and storing two or more fraud risk mathematical models, each model having a corresponding distribution of fraudulent transactions and a corresponding distribution of non-fraudulent transactions;
generating for each mathematical model of the two or more mathematical models, a pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions, wherein one sigmoidal function of the pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions approximates a relationship between a set of raw scores produced by said each mathematical model and a percentage of fraudulent transactions associated with each raw score of the set of raw scores, and another sigmoidal function of the pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions approximates a relationship between said each raw score and a percentage of non-fraudlent transactions associated with said each raw score;
defining for each mathematical model a first point at which a number of transactions that represent mistaken sales begin to have a positive count;
a second point at which a number of transactions that represent mistaken rejections begin to have a zero count; and
a third point at which the fraudulent and non-fraudulent transaction distributions for said each mathematical model intersect, wherein the third point corresponds to a particular raw score for which a percentage of fraudulent transactions equals a percentage of non-fraudulent transactions;
receiving transaction information and performing;
applying the transaction information to the two or more fraud risk mathematical models, wherein each mathematical model produces a corresponding raw score; and
transforming the two or more corresponding raw scores into a single corresponding risk estimate using a first transform function when a raw score falls within a range of values between raw scores corresponding to the first point and the third point respectively, or a second transform function when the raw score falls within a range of values between raw scores corresponding to the third point and the second point respectively;
wherein the first transform function is different from the second transform function;
wherein the method is performed by a computer system.
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Abstract
According to one aspect, transaction information is received and applied to multiple fraud risk mathematical models that each produce a respective raw score, which are transformed with respective sigmoidal transform functions to produce optimized likelihood of fraud risk estimates to provide to a merchant. In one embodiment, the respective fraud risk estimates are combined using fusion proportions that are associated with the respective risk estimates, producing a single point risk estimate, which is transformed with a sigmoidal function to produce an optimized single point risk estimate for the transaction. The sigmoidal functions are derived to approximate a relationship between risk estimates produced by fraud risk detection models and a percentage of transactions associated with respective risk estimates, where the relationship is represented in terms of real-world distributions of fraudulent transaction and non-fraudulent transaction. One embodiment is directed to computing respective risk test penalties for multiple risk tests in one or more of the multiple fraud risk mathematical models used to estimate the likelihood of fraud, given a certain pattern of events represented by the transaction information, wherein the respective risk test penalties are computed as the inverse of the sum of one and a false positive ratio for the respective risk test.
272 Citations
18 Claims
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1. A method for evaluating fraud risk in an electronic commerce transaction and providing a representation of the fraud risk to a merchant using electronic communication, the method comprising:
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generating and storing two or more fraud risk mathematical models, each model having a corresponding distribution of fraudulent transactions and a corresponding distribution of non-fraudulent transactions; generating for each mathematical model of the two or more mathematical models, a pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions, wherein one sigmoidal function of the pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions approximates a relationship between a set of raw scores produced by said each mathematical model and a percentage of fraudulent transactions associated with each raw score of the set of raw scores, and another sigmoidal function of the pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions approximates a relationship between said each raw score and a percentage of non-fraudlent transactions associated with said each raw score; defining for each mathematical model a first point at which a number of transactions that represent mistaken sales begin to have a positive count;
a second point at which a number of transactions that represent mistaken rejections begin to have a zero count; and
a third point at which the fraudulent and non-fraudulent transaction distributions for said each mathematical model intersect, wherein the third point corresponds to a particular raw score for which a percentage of fraudulent transactions equals a percentage of non-fraudulent transactions;receiving transaction information and performing; applying the transaction information to the two or more fraud risk mathematical models, wherein each mathematical model produces a corresponding raw score; and transforming the two or more corresponding raw scores into a single corresponding risk estimate using a first transform function when a raw score falls within a range of values between raw scores corresponding to the first point and the third point respectively, or a second transform function when the raw score falls within a range of values between raw scores corresponding to the third point and the second point respectively; wherein the first transform function is different from the second transform function; wherein the method is performed by a computer system. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
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10. A computer-readable volatile or non-volatile medium storing one or more sequences of instructions for evaluating fraud risk in an electronic commerce transaction and providing a representation of the fraud risk to a merchant using electronic communication, which instructions, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to carry out the steps of:
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generating and storing two or more fraud risk mathematical models, each model having a corresponding distribution of fraudulent transactions and a corresponding distribution of non-fraudulent transactions; generating for each mathematical model of the two or more mathematical models, a pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions, wherein one sigmoidal function of the pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions approximates a relationship between a set of raw scores produced by said each mathematical model and a percentage of fraudulent transactions associated with each raw score of the set of raw scores, and another sigmoidal function of the pair of corresponding sigmoidal functions approximates a relationship between said each raw score and a percentage of non-fraudulent transactions associated with said each raw score; defined by defining for each mathematical model a first point at which a number of transactions that represent mistaken sales begin to have a positive count;
a second point at which a number of transactions that represent mistaken rejections begin to have a zero count; and
a third point at which the fraudulent and non-fraudulent transaction distributions for said each mathematical model intersect, wherein the third point corresponds to a particular raw score for which a percentage of fraudulent transactions equals a percentage of non-fraudulent transactions;receiving transaction information and performing; applying the transaction information to the two or more fraud risk mathematical models, wherein each mathematical model produces a corresponding raw score; and transforming the two or more corresponding raw scores into a single corresponding risk estimate using a first transform function when a raw score falls within a range of values between raw scores corresponding to the first point and the third point respectively, or a second transform function when the raw score falls within a range of values between raw scores corresponding to the third point and the second point respectively; wherein the first transform function is different from the second transform function. - View Dependent Claims (11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
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Specification