Method and apparatus to forecast the availability of a resource
First Claim
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1. A method for forecasting availability of a resource for a work assignment, comprising:
- selecting a forecast horizon;
determining for a first segment of a first task, wherein a first task is a single task, a first probability related to an availability of at least a first resource within said forecast horizon, wherein said first resource comprises a first agent;
determining for a second segment of said first task a second probability related to said availability of said at least a first resource within said forecast horizon, wherein said first and second probabilities are different from one another;
combining said determined first probability and said determined second probability;
normalizing a result of said combining said determined first and second probabilities to obtain a probability of agent availability within said selected forecast horizon; and
applying said obtained probability of agent availability to assign work to a resource having a probability of agent availability that is within said selected forecast horizon, wherein said method comprises the execution of program instructions by a processor to perform said method, wherein said program instructions are recorded in a computer readable storage medium.
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Abstract
The present invention is directed to systems and methods for providing an accurate forecast of resource availability within a determined forecast horizon. Statistics regarding time spent by resources in tasks that can be differentiated into or considered as a number of discrete segments are accessed to obtain a probability of resource completion of the task within the forecast horizon. In particular, statistics related to different task segments are combined to obtain a composite forecast of resource availability. Embodiments of the present invention may be applied to predictive dialer applications and workflow systems.
194 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method for forecasting availability of a resource for a work assignment, comprising:
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selecting a forecast horizon; determining for a first segment of a first task, wherein a first task is a single task, a first probability related to an availability of at least a first resource within said forecast horizon, wherein said first resource comprises a first agent; determining for a second segment of said first task a second probability related to said availability of said at least a first resource within said forecast horizon, wherein said first and second probabilities are different from one another; combining said determined first probability and said determined second probability; normalizing a result of said combining said determined first and second probabilities to obtain a probability of agent availability within said selected forecast horizon; and applying said obtained probability of agent availability to assign work to a resource having a probability of agent availability that is within said selected forecast horizon, wherein said method comprises the execution of program instructions by a processor to perform said method, wherein said program instructions are recorded in a computer readable storage medium. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 17)
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14. A method for forecasting arrivals of agents, comprising:
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selecting a forecast horizon; forecasting using an automatic call distributor the number of agents associated with the automatic call distributor that are available within said selected horizon, said forecasting including; determining a probability of completion of talk state within the forecast horizon for each of a plurality of agents; determining a probability of completion of wrap-up state within the forecast horizon for each of said plurality of agents assuming each is at the start of wrap-up; for each of said plurality of agents, combining said determined probability of completion of talk state and said determined probability of completion of wrap-up state to obtain an agent arrival probability for each of said plurality of agents within said forecast horizon; combining said agent arrival probabilities for each of said plurality of agents to obtain a first forecast; and initiating an outbound call when said first forecast indicates an excess supply of agents. - View Dependent Claims (15, 16)
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18. A work distribution system, comprising:
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means for predicting a time to a next work item requiring an agent; means for accessing a first agent current work segment statistic; means for accessing a second agent current work segment statistic; means for determining a first probability of completing said first agent work segment within said predicted time at an elapsed time in said first work segment by applying at least said first agent work segment statistic; means for determining a second probability of completing said second agent work segment within said predicted time at zero elapsed time in said second work segment by applying at least said second agent work segment statistic; means for combining said first and second probabilities to obtain an agent arrival probability within said predicted time; and means for placing outbound calls, wherein said agent arrival probability is provided as an input to said means for placing outbound calls. - View Dependent Claims (19, 20)
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Specification