Prediction engines using probability tree and computing node probabilities for the probability tree
First Claim
Patent Images
1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
- providing a probability tree of nodes in which each node is associated with a tries value and a success value, and at least one node is associated with a computed probability value representative of a predicted response rate for an advertisement creative; and
computing a first probability value for a first node of the probability tree based on its associated tries value and success value, and a computed probability value associated with a parent node to the first node, wherein the first probability value is computed based on an algorithm that generates a probability value approximately equal to that of the parent node to the first node when the success value associated with the first node approaches zero.
10 Assignments
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
There are methods and apparatus, including computer program products, for providing a probability tree of nodes in which each node is associated with a tries value and a success value, and at least one node is associated with a computed probability value representative of a predicted response rate for an advertisement creative; and computing a first probability value for a first node of the probability tree based on its associated tries value and success value, and a computed probability value associated with a parent node to the first node. In one exemplary embodiment, the first probability is computed according to the following equation:
-
Citations
23 Claims
-
1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
-
providing a probability tree of nodes in which each node is associated with a tries value and a success value, and at least one node is associated with a computed probability value representative of a predicted response rate for an advertisement creative; and computing a first probability value for a first node of the probability tree based on its associated tries value and success value, and a computed probability value associated with a parent node to the first node, wherein the first probability value is computed based on an algorithm that generates a probability value approximately equal to that of the parent node to the first node when the success value associated with the first node approaches zero. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5)
-
-
6. A computer-implemented method comprising
providing a probability tree of nodes in which each node is associated with a tries value and a success value, and at least one node is associated with a computed probability value representative of a predicted response rate for an advertisement creative; - and
computing a first probability value for a first node of the probability tree based on its associated tries value and success value, and a computed probability value associated with a parent node to the first node, wherein the first probability value is computed by dividing the success value associated with the first node by the tries value associated with the first node when the success value associated with the first node approaches zero. - View Dependent Claims (7, 8, 9, 10)
- and
-
11. A computer-implemented method comprising:
-
providing a probability tree of nodes in which each node is associated with a tries value and a success value, and at least one node is associated with a computed probability value representative of a predicted response rate for an advertisement creative; and computing a first probability value for a first node of the probability tree based on its associated tries value and success value, and a computed probability value associated with a parent node to the first node, wherein the first probability value is computed according to the following - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15)
-
-
16. A computer-implemented method comprising:
-
limiting a number of times advertisement impressions for a first creative are served on a particular publisher site to a throttling threshold that is based in part on a statistical accuracy of bids for the advertisement impressions; providing a multi-level probability tree of nodes in which each node is associated with a computed probability value representative of a predicted response rate for an advertisement creative; wherein the bids for advertisement impressions that are based on a computed probability value that is associated with a lower level tree node are more statistically accurate than the bids for advertisement impressions that are based on a computed probability value that is associated with a higher level tree node. - View Dependent Claims (17, 18)
-
-
19. A machine-readable non-transitory medium that stores executable instructions to cause a machine to:
-
provide a probability tree of nodes in which each node is associated with a tries value and a success value, and at least one node is associated with a computed probability value representative of a predicted response rate for an advertisement creative; and compute a first probability value for a first node of the probability tree based on its associated tries value and success value according to the following equation; - View Dependent Claims (20, 21, 22, 23)
-
Specification