Traffic predictor for network-accessible information modules
First Claim
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1. A method for estimating the performance of an information package, comprising operations of:
- receiving one or more values of respective attributes of an information package;
obtaining for at least one of the one or more attributes, a buzz value characterizing the level of interest in the attribute based on analysis of online user search activity, wherein the obtaining operation further comprises;
accessing a search system maintaining buzz values for a plurality of terms, topics or categories;
mapping one or more of the attributes of the information package to respective terms, topics or categories; and
estimating a future performance of the information package by providing one or more attributes and one or more buzz values as input parameters to a regression model to yield a numerical value characterizing the estimated performance of the information package, wherein the regression model is based on historical performance of a set of previous information packages relative to the one or more attributes, and provides the coefficients for the input parameters to the estimated performance of the information package and wherein each operation of the method is executed by one or more processors.
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Abstract
Methods, apparatuses and systems directed to predicting the performance of an information package or module presented on a network addressable resource, such as a web page. A particular implementation relies on regression models that utilize statistical measures of user interest in terms, concepts and other subject matter as revealed in on-line search activity of a pool of users. A model receives as inputs a plurality of attribute values corresponding to an information package or module (including one or more statistical measures of interest) and outputs an estimated click-thru rate.
43 Citations
19 Claims
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1. A method for estimating the performance of an information package, comprising operations of:
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receiving one or more values of respective attributes of an information package; obtaining for at least one of the one or more attributes, a buzz value characterizing the level of interest in the attribute based on analysis of online user search activity, wherein the obtaining operation further comprises; accessing a search system maintaining buzz values for a plurality of terms, topics or categories; mapping one or more of the attributes of the information package to respective terms, topics or categories; and estimating a future performance of the information package by providing one or more attributes and one or more buzz values as input parameters to a regression model to yield a numerical value characterizing the estimated performance of the information package, wherein the regression model is based on historical performance of a set of previous information packages relative to the one or more attributes, and provides the coefficients for the input parameters to the estimated performance of the information package and wherein each operation of the method is executed by one or more processors. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
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10. An apparatus comprising:
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one or more network interfaces; a memory; one or more processors; and a performance predictor module, comprising computer-readable instructions physically stored in the memory, operable to cause the one or more processors to perform the following operations; receive one or more values of respective attributes of an information package; obtain, for at least one of the one or more attributes, a buzz value characterizing the level of interest in the attribute based on analysis of on-line user search activity, wherein this operation further includes the operations; access a search system maintaining buzz values for a plurality of terms, topics or categories; and map one or more of the attributes of the information package to respective terms, topics or categories; and compute an estimated future performance of the information package by applying one or more of the attributes and buzz values to a regression model, wherein the regression model is based on historical performance of a set of previous information packages relative to the one or more attributes. - View Dependent Claims (11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
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19. A method comprising operations of:
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defining, using a computing device, one or more values of respective attributes of an information package; obtaining, for at least one of the one or more attributes, a buzz value characterizing the level of interest in the attribute based on analysis of on-line user search activity, wherein the obtaining operation further comprises mapping one or more of the attributes of the information package to respective terms, topics, or categories having buzz values; and providing one or more attributes and one or more buzz values as input parameters to a regression model to yield an estimated future click-thru rate for the information package, wherein the regression model is based on historical click-thru rate performance of a set of previous information packages relative to the one or more attributes, and provides the coefficients for the input parameters to the estimated click-thru rate for the information package; and optimizing the information package by iteratively redefining one or more values of the respective attributes of the information package and applying the redefined attribute values and corresponding buzz values to the regression model until a desired estimated future click-thru rate is achieved.
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Specification