Determining a corrective action based on economic calculation

• US 8,015,134 B2
• Filed: 05/31/2007
• Issued: 09/06/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 05/31/2007
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Solar Turbines Incorporated (Caterpillar Incorporated)
• Original Assignee: Solar Turbines Incorporated (Caterpillar Incorporated)
• Inventors: Boggs, Brian Lee, Grichnik, Anthony J., Seskin, Michael
• Primary Examiner(s): Vincent; David R
• Assistant Examiner(s): Brown, Jr.; Nathan H
• Application Number:
  US11/806,372
• Publication Number:
  US 20080301499A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,559 Days
• Field of Search: 706/45
• US Class Current: 706/45
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0232 based on qualitative trend analysis, e.g. system evolution
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0281 Quantitative, e.g. mathematical distance; Clustering; Neural networks; Statistical analysis

Abstract

A computer-implemented method is provided for determining a corrective action. The method may include obtaining diagnostic data and calculating, using the diagnostic data, a prognostic. The method may also include retrieving, when the prognostic is above an alarm level, historical records and calculating a Bayesian posterior probability using the diagnostic data and the historical records. Further, the method may include calculating a prognostic prescience metric using the diagnostic data and the historical records and determining, based on the Bayesian posterior probability, the prognostic prescience metric, and an economic calculation, the corrective action.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for determining a corrective action, comprising:

obtaining diagnostic data;

calculating, using the diagnostic data, a prognostic;

retrieving, when the prognostic is above an alarm level, historical records;

calculating a Bayesian posterior probability using the diagnostic data and the historical records;

calculating a prognostic prescience metric using the diagnostic data and the historical records;

performing an economic calculation using a processor associated with a computer; and

determining, based on the Bayesian posterior probability, the prognostic prescience metric, and the economic calculation, the corrective action.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the corrective action comprises a repair to a machine.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the corrective action comprises a medical intervention to a patient.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the diagnostic data and the historical records include data indicating a status of a component of one or more machines.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the diagnostic data and the historical records include data indicating a status of a biological function of one or more patients.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the Bayesian posterior probability is calculated as

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the prognostic prescience metric is calculated as

8. A computer-readable medium, tangibly embodied, including a tool for determining a corrective action, the computer-readable medium comprising instructions for:

obtaining diagnostic data;

calculating, using the diagnostic data, a prognostic;

retrieving, when the prognostic is above an alarm level, historical records;

calculating a Bayesian posterior probability using the diagnostic data and the historical records;

calculating a prognostic prescience metric using the diagnostic data and the historical records;

performing an economic calculation; and

determining, based on the Bayesian posterior probability, the prognostic prescience metric, and the economic calculation, the corrective action.

9. The computer-readable medium of claim 8, wherein the corrective action comprises a repair to a machine.

10. The computer-readable medium of claim 8, wherein the corrective action comprises a medical intervention to a patient.

11. The computer-readable medium of claim 8, wherein the diagnostic data and the historical records include data indicating a status of a component of one or more machines.

12. The computer-readable medium of claim 8, wherein the diagnostic data and the historical records include data indicating the status of a biological function of one or more patients.

13. The computer-readable medium of claim 8, wherein the Bayesian posterior probability is calculated as

14. The computer-readable medium of claim 8, wherein the prognostic prescience metric is calculated as

15. A system comprising:

a platform;

at least one input device; and

at least one central processing unit in communication with the platform and the at least one input device, wherein the central processing unit;

obtains diagnostic data;

calculates, using the diagnostic data, a prognostic;

retrieves, when the prognostic is above an alarm level, historical records;

calculates a Bayesian posterior probability using the diagnostic data and the historical records;

calculates a prognostic prescience metric using the diagnostic data and the historical records;

performs an economic calculation; and

determines, based on the Bayesian posterior probability, the prognostic prescience metric, and the economic calculation, the corrective action.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein:

the corrective action comprises a repair to a machine, and

the diagnostic data and the historical records include data indicating a status of a component of one or more machines.

17. The system of claim 15, wherein:

the corrective action comprises a medical intervention to a patient, and

the diagnostic data and the historical records include data indicating a status of a biological function of one or more patients.

18. The system of claim 15, wherein the central processing unit calculates the Bayesian posterior probability as

19. The system of claim 15, wherein the central processing unit calculates the prognostic prescience metric as

20. The system of claim 15, wherein the central processing unit performs an economic calculation to determine the corrective action.