Agent based modeling of risk sensitivity and decision making on coalitions
First Claim
1. A method in a parallel processing computer system for simulating individual and social behavior, comprising:
- creating a neighborhood of cells;
allocating resources to the cells;
assigning an agent to each cell;
selecting one of a plurality of decision rules for interactions between agents, wherein one of the plurality of decision rules includes a coordination game;
analyzing risk sensitivity using an analytical function W(x)=e(d+ax+c sin(bx)), where a>
bc;
iteratively conducting discrete interactions between the agents using the selected decision rule and allocated resources, wherein the discrete interactions of a first subset of the agents are conducted on a first computing device of the parallel processing computer system and the discrete interactions of a second subset of the agents are conducted on a second computing device of the parallel processing computer system; and
recording interaction outcome.
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Abstract
An agent based model system provides simulation of the influence of environmental variables and tendencies in individual and social decision making relating to the formation of coalitions and ethnic groups. The system is based on improved understandings of human decision making under risk, and incorporates recent theoretical developments and computational tools. The system gives analysts the ability to predict the development of coalitions and ethnic groups, as well as the ability to manage the behavior of individuals in such groups. The model results provide confidence intervals for various possible scenarios in a mix of agents'"'"' decision rules and distribution of environmental resources. Applications include management of ethnic groups and violent conditions in unstable nations, the tracking of terrorist organizations, development of coalitions and oligopolies in business, and the modeling and interdiction of criminal organizations.
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Citations
38 Claims
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1. A method in a parallel processing computer system for simulating individual and social behavior, comprising:
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creating a neighborhood of cells; allocating resources to the cells; assigning an agent to each cell; selecting one of a plurality of decision rules for interactions between agents, wherein one of the plurality of decision rules includes a coordination game; analyzing risk sensitivity using an analytical function W(x)=e(d+ax+c sin(bx)), where a>
bc;iteratively conducting discrete interactions between the agents using the selected decision rule and allocated resources, wherein the discrete interactions of a first subset of the agents are conducted on a first computing device of the parallel processing computer system and the discrete interactions of a second subset of the agents are conducted on a second computing device of the parallel processing computer system; and recording interaction outcome. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
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23. A non-transitory, computer-readable medium having machine-executable code for simulating the interactions of agents, comprising:
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code for creating a neighborhood of cells; code for allocating resources to the cells; code for assigning an agent to each cell; code for selecting one of a plurality of decision rules for interactions between agents, wherein one of the plurality of decision rules includes a coordination game; code for analyzing risk sensitivity using an analytical function W(x)=e(d+ax+c sin(bx)), where a>
bc;code for iteratively conducting discrete interactions between the agents using the selected decision rule and allocated resources; and code for recording interaction outcome. - View Dependent Claims (24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38)
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Specification