Method and system for asset valuation using a statistical approach
First Claim
Patent Images
1. A computerized method for processing and displaying data of a business unit comprising the steps of:
- extracting, by a computer processing device, a set of past data of said business unit from a past database, wherein the extraction of said set of past data of said business unit includes;
examining files stored within the past database, andextracting contract term data from said files stored within the past database;
determining, by the computer processing device, a set of future plan data of said business unit, wherein said determining of said set of future plan data comprises;
automatically determining by using the extracted contract term data said set of future plan data by the computer processing device;
estimating the expectation of a discounted cash flow for each element of a set of models which define a specific growth trajectory according to said set of past data and said set of future plan data, wherein for each model;
estimating a standard deviation from said past data;
setting a risk premium derived from said estimated standard deviation and a predetermined risk factor;
calculating a risk adjusted value by deducting the set risk premium from said expectation; and
displaying the risk adjusted value and an estimated discounted cash flow value probability distribution on a display device.
3 Assignments
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
The disclosed embodiments are directed to a system, non-transitory computer readable medium and method of determining a value of an asset and presenting a visualization of the determined asset value The exemplary system and method use past data and future plan data related to the asset that is processed by a computer to determine the asset value. Different valuation processes may be used to determine the asset value. The resulting valuations may be presented to a user for comparison purposes.
-
Citations
23 Claims
-
1. A computerized method for processing and displaying data of a business unit comprising the steps of:
-
extracting, by a computer processing device, a set of past data of said business unit from a past database, wherein the extraction of said set of past data of said business unit includes; examining files stored within the past database, and extracting contract term data from said files stored within the past database; determining, by the computer processing device, a set of future plan data of said business unit, wherein said determining of said set of future plan data comprises; automatically determining by using the extracted contract term data said set of future plan data by the computer processing device; estimating the expectation of a discounted cash flow for each element of a set of models which define a specific growth trajectory according to said set of past data and said set of future plan data, wherein for each model; estimating a standard deviation from said past data; setting a risk premium derived from said estimated standard deviation and a predetermined risk factor; calculating a risk adjusted value by deducting the set risk premium from said expectation; and displaying the risk adjusted value and an estimated discounted cash flow value probability distribution on a display device. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13)
-
-
14. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium including instructions that, when executed by a processor, perform the steps of:
-
extracting, by a computer processing device, a set of past data of said business unit from a past database, wherein the extraction of said set of past data of said business unit includes; examining files stored within the past database, and extracting contract term data from said files stored within the past database; determining, by the computer processing device, a set of future plan data of said business unit, wherein said determining of said set of future plan data comprises; automatically determining by using the extracted contract term data said set of future plan data by the computer processing device; estimating the expectation of a discounted cash flow for each element of a set of models which define a specific growth trajectory according to said set of past data and said set of future plan data, wherein for each model; estimating a standard deviation from said past data, setting a risk premium derived from said estimated standard deviation and a predetermined risk factor; calculating a risk adjusted value by deducting the set risk premium from said expectation; and displaying the risk adjusted value and an estimated discounted cash flow value probability distribution on a display device.
-
-
15. A system for processing and displaying data of a business unit comprising:
-
a display device; an enterprise resource planning system for maintaining data related to operation of a business entity; a business data warehousing system for collecting, planning and reporting data in communication with the enterprise resource planning system, the business data warehousing system comprising a processor configured to; extract a set of past data of said business unit from a past database maintained by the enterprise resource planning system by examining files stored within the past database, extract contract data from said files stored within the past database; extract a set of future plan data of said business unit from a future plan database by automatically determining and extracting at least one preconfigured subset of said set of future plan data from a future plan database maintained by the enterprise resource planning system; extract all future plan data remaining after extraction of the at least one preconfigured subset of said future plan data from said future plan database; estimate the expectation of a discounted cash flow for each element of a set of models which define a specific growth trajectory according to said set of past data and said set of future plan data including the preconfigured subset of said future plan data, wherein for each model; estimate a standard deviation from said past data, set a risk premium derived from said estimated standard deviation and a predetermined risk factor; calculate a risk adjusted value by deducting the set risk premium from said expectation; and display the risk adjusted value and an estimated discounted cash flow value probability distribution on a display device. - View Dependent Claims (16, 17, 18)
-
-
19. A method for valuing a business unit and providing a probability distribution and a risk adjustment using a plurality of parameterized growth models comprising the steps:
-
calculating, by a processing unit, for a past interval a time series of actual data from a transaction data database maintained in a system memory; calculating, by the processing unit, for a future interval a time series of uncertain plan data, wherein said uncertain plan data is plan data subject to uncertainty; calculating, by the processing unit, for said future interval a time series of certain plan data, wherein said certain plan data is plan data having certainty; calculating the parameters of each of the said growth models from said actual data and said uncertain plan data using statistical techniques thus specifying a growth trajectory; deriving for each of said growth models beyond said future interval an infinite time series of plan data according to said growth trajectory; discounting said uncertain, certain and model dependent derived plan data using period corresponding market traded interest rates; summing up for each of said growth models said discounted plan values thus estimating an expectation of said value of said business unit; estimating a standard deviation for each of said models using said actual data; setting a risk premium for each of said models from said estimated standard deviation and a predetermined risk factor; calculating a risk adjusted value for each of said models by deducting said risk premium from said estimated expectation value; and displaying for each of said models said risk adjusted value and a probability distribution defined by said estimated expectation value and said estimated standard deviation on a display device. - View Dependent Claims (20, 21, 22, 23)
-
Specification