Electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system, electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method, and program for executing support method, and program for executing operation management support method on computer

• US 8,069,077 B2
• Filed: 06/10/2004
• Issued: 11/29/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 06/11/2003
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Matsumoto, Shigeru, Iino, Yutaka
• Primary Examiner(s): JOHNSON, GREGORY L
• Application Number:
  US10/864,896
• Publication Number:
  US 20050015283A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,728 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.31, 705/7.25, 705/7.29, 705/7.33, 705/7.34, 705/7.35
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/008 involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 40/70 Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/10 Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/14 Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards

Abstract

An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system includes a condition-input unit inputting costs of electric power generation in electric power generating facilities, probability distribution of predicted values of the demand for electric power, and probability distribution of predicted values of the transaction price of power on the market. An optimal-operational-condition calculating unit calculates the performance of power generation of the power generating facilities based upon the costs of power generation, the probability distribution of predicted values of the demand for power and the probability distribution of predicted values of the transaction price of power on the market, input from the condition-input unit so as to obtain the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the maximum performance of power generation A risk estimating unit calculates and estimates a risk value of damage of the optimal operation under the optimal operational conditions. A calculation-result display unit displays the optimal operational conditions and the risk-estimation results.

Claims

1. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system, comprising:

a condition-input unit for inputting costs of an electric power generation in electric power generating facilities, a probability distribution of predicted values of a demand for electric power, and a probability distribution of predicted values of a transaction price of the electric power on a market;

optimal-operational-condition calculating means for calculating a performance of the electric power generation of said electric power generating facilities based upon said costs of the electric power generation of said electric power generating facilities, said probability distribution of the predicted values of the demand for the electric power, and said probability distribution of the predicted values of the transaction price of the electric power on the market, input from said condition-input unit to obtain optimal operational conditions which exhibit a maximum performance of the electric power generation;

risk estimating means for calculating and estimating a risk value of damage of an optimal operation under said optimal operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating means;

reserve-electric-power optimizing means for calculating optimal partial-load operational conditions or optimal over-rated-load operational conditions for operating said electric power generating facilities while maintaining a reserve electric power production capability, according to a price at which said electric power generating facilities supply a reserve electric power, wherein the reserve-electric-power optimizing means receives a partial-load operational condition or an overload operational condition and determines whether a cost of the reserve electric power production capability matches the price at which said electric power generating facilities supply the reserve electric power; and

a calculation-result display unit for displaying said optimal operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating means and risk-estimation results estimated by said risk estimating means.

2. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein

said risk estimating means includes at least one of:

market-risk calculating means for calculating a market risk value corresponding to damage due to a fluctuation of the demand for the electric power and the transaction price of the electric power on the market;

liquidity-risk calculating means for calculating a liquidity-risk value corresponding to damage from trading on an electric power market due to a deregulation of electric power on the market;

credit-risk calculating means for calculating a credit-risk value corresponding to damage due to a shortage of information with regard to a demand of consumers; and

operational-risk calculating means for calculating an operational-risk value corresponding to damage due to an unexpected trouble of said electric power generating facilities and an unexpected trouble of an operation thereof.

3. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein

said risk estimating means includes at least one of:

market-risk calculating means for calculating a market risk value corresponding to damage due to a fluctuation of the demand for the electric power and the transaction price of the electric power on the market;

liquidity-risk calculating means for calculating a liquidity-risk value corresponding to damage from trading on an electric power market due to a deregulation of electric power on the market;

credit-risk calculating means for calculating a credit-risk value corresponding to damage due to a shortage of information with regard to a demand of consumers;

operational-risk calculating means for calculating an operational-risk value corresponding to damage due to an unexpected trouble of said electric power generating facilities and an unexpected trouble of an operation thereof; and

total-risk calculating means for calculating a total-risk value based upon a market risk value, a liquidity-risk value, a credit-risk value, and an operational-risk value calculated by various risk calculating means.

4. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein

said calculation-result display unit includes at least one of:

a function of displaying a risk-estimation calculated by said risk estimating means in the form of a probability distribution of the electric power generating performance;

a function of displaying a lower limit of a reliability as worst-case risk-estimation results; and

a function of displaying a sigma value which represents irregularities in the performance of electric power generation.

5. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, further comprising:

optimal-tradeoff calculating means for calculating optimal tradeoff operational conditions based upon determining parameters with regard to a tradeoff between an optimal performance of the electric power generation and risk values, which are input of said determining parameters from said condition-input unit.

6. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein the price at which said electric power generating facilities supply the reserve electric power is an input from said condition-input unit.