Valuing future information under uncertainty
First Claim
1. A method of performing an oilfield operation of an oilfield, comprising:
- analyzing the oilfield operation to generate a decision tree comprising a first decision and a second decision,wherein the first decision comprises (a) a first outcome that dictates acquiring information relevant to the second decision and (b) a second outcome that dictates not acquiring the information, andwherein the second decision is influenced by the first outcome of the first decision, the second outcome of the first decision, and uncertainties associated with the oilfield;
formulating a figure of merit of the oilfield operation according to the decision tree based on the information and the uncertainties associated with the oilfield;
determining, by a processor, a value of the figure of merit by modeling the oilfield operation using statistical sampling; and
performing the oilfield operation upon making the first decision based on the value of the figure of merit.
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Accused Products
Abstract
The invention relates to a method of performing an oilfield operation of an oilfield having at least one well having a wellbore penetrating a subterranean formation for extracting fluid from an underground reservoir therein. The method steps include analyzing the oilfield operation to generate a decision tree comprising a first decision and a second decision, wherein a first outcome of the first decision dictates acquiring information relevant to the second decision, formulating a figure of merit of the oilfield operation according to the decision tree based on the information and uncertainties associated with the oilfield, determining a value of the figure of merit by modeling the oilfield operation using statistical sampling, and performing the oilfield operation upon making the first decision based on the value of the figure of merit.
29 Citations
24 Claims
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1. A method of performing an oilfield operation of an oilfield, comprising:
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analyzing the oilfield operation to generate a decision tree comprising a first decision and a second decision, wherein the first decision comprises (a) a first outcome that dictates acquiring information relevant to the second decision and (b) a second outcome that dictates not acquiring the information, and wherein the second decision is influenced by the first outcome of the first decision, the second outcome of the first decision, and uncertainties associated with the oilfield; formulating a figure of merit of the oilfield operation according to the decision tree based on the information and the uncertainties associated with the oilfield; determining, by a processor, a value of the figure of merit by modeling the oilfield operation using statistical sampling; and performing the oilfield operation upon making the first decision based on the value of the figure of merit. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
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9. A surface unit comprising a memory and a processor, embodying instructions stored in the memory and executable by the processor to perform method steps to perform an oilfield operation, the instructions comprising functionality to:
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analyze the oilfield operation to generate a decision tree comprising a first decision and a second decision, wherein the first decision comprises (a) a first outcome that dictates acquiring information relevant to the second decision and (b) a second outcome that dictates not acquiring the information, and wherein the second decision is influenced by the first outcome of the first decision, the second outcome of the first decision, and uncertainties associated with the oilfield; formulate a figure of merit of the oilfield operation according to the decision tree based on the information and the uncertainties associated with the oilfield; determine a value of the figure of merit by modeling the oilfield operation using statistical sampling; and perform the oilfield operation upon making the first decision based on the value of the figure of merit. - View Dependent Claims (10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A non-transitory computer readable medium, embodying instructions executable by the computer to perform method steps for performing an oilfield operation of an oilfield having at least one well having a wellbore penetrating a subterranean formation for extracting fluid from an underground reservoir therein, the instructions comprising functionality to:
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analyze the oilfield operation to generate a decision tree comprising a first decision and a second decision, wherein the first decision comprises (a) a first outcome that dictates acquiring information relevant to the second decision and (b) a second outcome that dictates not acquiring the information, and wherein the second decision is influenced by the first outcome of the first decision, the second outcome of the first decision, and uncertainties associated with the oilfield; formulate a figure of merit of the oilfield operation according to the decision tree based on the information and the uncertainties associated with the oilfield; determine a value of the figure of merit by modeling the oilfield operation using statistical sampling; and perform the oilfield operation upon making the first decision based on the value of the figure of merit. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24)
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Specification