Methods, systems and computer readable code for forecasting time series and for forecasting commodity consumption
First Claim
1. A computer program product encoding a computer program stored on a non-transitory computer readable storage medium for executing a process on a digital computer processor, the process comprising a set of instructions for forecasting commodity consumption by a target individual of a large population of a size of at least on the order of magnitude of one million individuals, the large population including individuals exhibiting irregular historical consumption patterns of a commodity, the target individual not necessarily having a commodity consumption pattern representative of the large population, wherein the set of instructions comprises instructions for:
- a) selecting, from the large population of individuals having a size on the order of magnitude of one million, a representative sub-set of the population, the representative sub-set of the population, when combined with the target individual, not required to coincide with the large population;
b) providing historical consumption data describing actual historical consumptions of the commodity by the representative sub-set of the large population during one or more less-recent historical time period(s) and during one or more more-recent historical time periods(s);
c) for a plurality of commodity consumption forecast models, evaluating, for the specific case of the representative sub-set selected in step (b), performance of each forecast model of the plurality of forecast models by determining the ability of each forecast model of the plurality of commodity consumption forecast models to predict;
i) consumption of the commodity by the representative population sub-set during the more-recent historical time period(s) fromii) data describing consumption of the commodity by the representative population sub-set during the less-recent historical time period(s)d) according to the results of the forecast performance evaluating of step (c), selecting a sub-plurality of commodity consumption forecast models from the plurality of consumption forecast models;
e) for the target individual of the large population, providing historical consumption data describing actual historical consumptions of the commodity by the target individual during one or more less-recent historical time period(s) and during one or more more-recent historical time periods(s), the historical consumption data of the target individual not necessarily representative of the large population or of the representative sub-set of the large population;
f) for the selected sub-plurality of commodity consumption forecast models, evaluating, for the specific case of the target individual, performance of each forecast model of the sub-plurality of forecast models by determining the ability of each forecast model of the sub-plurality to predict;
i) consumption of the commodity by the target individual during the more-recent historical time period(s) fromii) data describing consumption of the commodity by the target individual during the less recent historical time period(s);
g) formulating a combined forecasting model adapted for the target individual that includes at least some forecast models of the sub-plurality weighted for the target individual, in accordance with the results of the model performance-evaluating for the specific case of the target individual; and
h) forecasting, future consumption of the commodity by the target individual using the combined forecast model.
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Abstract
Methods, systems and computer readable code for forecasting commodity consumption and for forecasting time series are provided. According to some embodiments, the forecasting includes deriving at least one population commodity consumption forecasting model from population historical consumption data, deriving an individual commodity consumption forecasting model for at least one individual of the population from at least one population commodity consumption forecasting model and from individual historical consumption data, and forecasting future individual commodity consumption for the individual using individual commodity consumption forecasting model. According to some embodiments, the presently disclosed forecasting includes forecasting future values of an individual time series within a population of time series, where each time series on the same domain. Thus, according to some embodiments, the forecasting includes deriving at least one population forecasting model from past values of the population of time series, deriving an individual time series for at least one individual time series forecasting model from past individual time series values and from at least one population forecasting model and forecasting future values of said individual time series using the individual time series forecasting model.
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Citations
14 Claims
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1. A computer program product encoding a computer program stored on a non-transitory computer readable storage medium for executing a process on a digital computer processor, the process comprising a set of instructions for forecasting commodity consumption by a target individual of a large population of a size of at least on the order of magnitude of one million individuals, the large population including individuals exhibiting irregular historical consumption patterns of a commodity, the target individual not necessarily having a commodity consumption pattern representative of the large population, wherein the set of instructions comprises instructions for:
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a) selecting, from the large population of individuals having a size on the order of magnitude of one million, a representative sub-set of the population, the representative sub-set of the population, when combined with the target individual, not required to coincide with the large population; b) providing historical consumption data describing actual historical consumptions of the commodity by the representative sub-set of the large population during one or more less-recent historical time period(s) and during one or more more-recent historical time periods(s); c) for a plurality of commodity consumption forecast models, evaluating, for the specific case of the representative sub-set selected in step (b), performance of each forecast model of the plurality of forecast models by determining the ability of each forecast model of the plurality of commodity consumption forecast models to predict; i) consumption of the commodity by the representative population sub-set during the more-recent historical time period(s) from ii) data describing consumption of the commodity by the representative population sub-set during the less-recent historical time period(s) d) according to the results of the forecast performance evaluating of step (c), selecting a sub-plurality of commodity consumption forecast models from the plurality of consumption forecast models; e) for the target individual of the large population, providing historical consumption data describing actual historical consumptions of the commodity by the target individual during one or more less-recent historical time period(s) and during one or more more-recent historical time periods(s), the historical consumption data of the target individual not necessarily representative of the large population or of the representative sub-set of the large population; f) for the selected sub-plurality of commodity consumption forecast models, evaluating, for the specific case of the target individual, performance of each forecast model of the sub-plurality of forecast models by determining the ability of each forecast model of the sub-plurality to predict; i) consumption of the commodity by the target individual during the more-recent historical time period(s) from ii) data describing consumption of the commodity by the target individual during the less recent historical time period(s); g) formulating a combined forecasting model adapted for the target individual that includes at least some forecast models of the sub-plurality weighted for the target individual, in accordance with the results of the model performance-evaluating for the specific case of the target individual; and h) forecasting, future consumption of the commodity by the target individual using the combined forecast model. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
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8. A system for forecasting commodity consumption by a target individual of a large population of a size of at least on the order of magnitude of one million individuals, the large population including individuals exhibiting irregular historical consumption patterns of a commodity, the target individual not necessarily having a commodity consumption pattern representative of the large population, the system comprising:
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a) a data storage including at least one of volatile and non-volatile memory configured to store; i) a description of a representative sub-set of the population selected from the large population of individuals having a size at least on the order of magnitude of one million, the representative sub-set of the population, when combined with the target individual, not required to coincide with the large population; ii) historical consumption data describing actual historical consumptions of the commodity by the representative sub-set of the large population during one or more less-recent historical time period(s) and during one or more more-recent historical time periods(s); iii) a description of a plurality of commodity consumption forecast models; and iv) historical consumption data describing actual historical consumptions of the commodity by the target individual during one or more less-recent historical time period(s) and during one or more more-recent historical time periods(s), the historical consumption data of the target individual not necessarily representative of the large population or of the representative sub-set of the large population; b) a digital computer processor; and c) computer code stored on a computer-readable medium, the digital computer processor and the computer code configured such that execution of the computer code by the digital computer processor effects the following steps; i) selecting the representative sub-set of the population from the large population of individuals having a size at least on the order of magnitude of one million; ii) for the plurality of commodity consumption forecast models, evaluating, for the specific case of the representative sub-set selected in step (i), performance of each forecast model of the plurality of forecast models by determining the ability of each forecast model of the plurality of commodity consumption forecast models to predict; A) consumption of the commodity by the representative population sub-set during the more-recent historical time period(s) from B) data describing consumption of the commodity by the representative population sub-set during the less-recent historical time period(s) iii) according to the results of the forecast performance evaluating of step (ii), selecting a sub-plurality of commodity consumption forecast models from the plurality of consumption forecast models; iv) for the selected sub-plurality of commodity consumption forecast models, evaluating, for the specific ease of the target individual, performance of each forecast model of the sub-plurality of forecast models by determining the ability of each forecast model of the sub-plurality to predict; A) consumption of the commodity by the target individual during the more-recent historical time period(s) from B) data describing consumption of the commodity by the target individual during the more recent historical time period(s); and v) formulating a combined forecast model adapted for the target individual from that includes at least some forecast models of the sub-plurality weighted, for the target individual, in accordance with the results of the model performance-evaluating for the specific case of the target individual; and vi) forecasting future consumption of the commodity by the target individual using the combined forecast model. - View Dependent Claims (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
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Specification