Business planner
First Claim
1. A method for predicting the profit attributable to a proposed sales promotion of a product, wherein the product has a wholesale price and a manufacturing cost per unit sales, the method comprising using a computer to perform the following steps:
- establishing a base volume for sales of the product in the absence of promotions, wherein the establishing act includes performing non-parametric regression of historical shipping data;
determining a sales lift for a plurality of single promotions;
correlating the sales lift with promotion information to provide a sales lift model;
proposing a promotion having a cost per unit sales for a promotion time period and having a planned sale price for the product;
applying the sales lift model to the proposed promotion to predict sales of the product for the promotion time period;
calculating manufacturer profit based upon the product'"'"'s predicted sales, cost per unit sales for promotion, wholesale price, and manufacturing cost per unit sales during the promotion time period.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A method and system for predicting the profit attributable to a proposed sales promotion of a product, wherein the product has a wholesale price and a manufacturing cost per unit sales, including establishing a base volume for sales of the product in the absence of promotions; determining a sales lift for the plurality of single promotions; and correlating the sales lift with promotion information to provide a sales lift model. The method and system also include proposing a promotion having a cost per unit sales for a promotion time period and having a planned sale price for the product; applying the sales lift model to the proposed promotion to predict sales of the product for the promotion time period; and calculating manufacturer profit based upon the product'"'"'s predicted sales, cost per unit sales for promotion, wholesale price, and manufacturing cost per unit sales during the promotion time period.
52 Citations
14 Claims
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1. A method for predicting the profit attributable to a proposed sales promotion of a product, wherein the product has a wholesale price and a manufacturing cost per unit sales, the method comprising using a computer to perform the following steps:
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establishing a base volume for sales of the product in the absence of promotions, wherein the establishing act includes performing non-parametric regression of historical shipping data; determining a sales lift for a plurality of single promotions; correlating the sales lift with promotion information to provide a sales lift model; proposing a promotion having a cost per unit sales for a promotion time period and having a planned sale price for the product; applying the sales lift model to the proposed promotion to predict sales of the product for the promotion time period; calculating manufacturer profit based upon the product'"'"'s predicted sales, cost per unit sales for promotion, wholesale price, and manufacturing cost per unit sales during the promotion time period. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A method for predicting the profit attributable to a proposed sales promotion of a product, wherein the product has a wholesale price and a manufacturing cost per unit sales, the method comprising using a computer to perform the following steps:
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establishing a base volume for sales of the product in the absence of promotions, wherein the establishing act includes Kalman filtering historical shipping data; determining a sales lift for a plurality of single promotions; correlating the sales lift with promotion information to provide a sales lift model; proposing a promotion having a cost per unit sales for a promotion time period and having a planned sale price for the product; applying the sales lift model to the proposed promotion to predict sales of the product for the promotion time period; calculating manufacturer profit based upon the product'"'"'s predicted sales, cost per unit sales for promotion, wholesale price, and manufacturing cost per unit sales during the promotion time period.
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14. A method for predicting the profit attributable to a proposed sales promotion of a product, wherein the product has a wholesale price and a manufacturing cost per unit sales, the method comprising using a computer to perform the following steps:
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establishing a base volume for sales of the product in the absence of promotions, wherein the establishing act further comprises; obtaining a time series of shipping data; normalizing the time series; truncating large peaks in the time series associated with promotions; applying a numerical tool to the time series selected from a dynamic linear model or a Kalman filter; performing regression on the time series to obtain regression estimates; smoothing the regression estimates; and applying the regression estimates to predict base volume for the promotion time period; determining a sales lift for a plurality of single promotions; correlating the sales lift with promotion information to provide a sales lift model; proposing a promotion having a cost per unit sales for a promotion time period and having a planned sale price for the product; applying the sales lift model to the proposed promotion to predict sales of the product for the promotion time period; calculating manufacturer profit based upon the product'"'"'s predicted sales, cost per unit sales for promotion, wholesale price, and manufacturing cost per unit sales during the promotion time period.
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Specification