Method and apparatus for estimation of component gating and shortage risk in manufacturing operations

• US 8,121,884 B1
• Filed: 12/07/2007
• Issued: 02/21/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 08/31/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: Kralik, Balazs, Goldbach, Michael, Dagum, Paul
• Primary Examiner(s): Rines, David
• Application Number:
  US11/952,740
• Time in Patent Office: 1,537 Days
• Field of Search: 705 7- 11
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0631 Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A method for estimation of component gating risk in manufacturing operations is disclosed. The method includes generating an altered component plan by altering a component plan for a component, computing a mean production value using the altered component plan, and computing the component gating risk using the mean production value.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method performed by a computer for identifying a gating component for a plurality of different products estimated to be produced by a manufacturing facility during a planning period, the method comprising:

providing a connect rate for each component of each product, the connect rate of a component of a product representing the number of the component needed to manufacture one unit of the product;

determining an expected demand for each of the plurality of products;

for each component of the products,

determining a quantity that is a maximum availability of the component;

computing, by the computer, a derivative of an expected quantity of the products with respect to a quantity of the component of the products, the expected quantity of the products being a mean production of the products given the quantity of the components and the expected demand for the products;

computing, by the computer, a component gating risk for the component based on the derivative and the connect rate of the component, the component gating risk being the risk that the component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order;

determining, by the computer, whether the component is a gating component based on the component gating risk for the component; and

storing an indication of the determined gating component in a memory; and

for each gating component, determining a quantity of the gating component to purchase for availability during the planning period based of the computed gating risk for

the gating component to reduce the probability of the gating component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the determining of the gating risk includes calculating a first mean production for each product assuming an increased availability of the component and a second mean production for each product assuming a decreased availability of the component.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein the gating risk is based on a difference between the first mean production and the second mean production divided by the difference in the increased availability and decreased availability of the component.

4. The method of claim 2 wherein the first mean production and the second mean production are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation.

5. A computer-readable storage medium encoded with instructions executable by a processor to identify a gating component for a plurality of different products estimated to be produced by a manufacturing facility during a planning period, by performing acts comprising:

providing a connect rate for each component of each product, the connect rate of a component of a product representing the number of the component needed to manufacture one unit of the product;

determining an expected demand for each of the plurality of products;

for each component of each of the products,

determining a quantity that is a maximum availability of the component;

computing, by the computer, a derivative of an expected quantity of the products with respect to a quantity of the component of the products, the expected quantity of the products being a mean production of the products given the quantity of the components and the expected demand for the products;

computing, by the computer, a component gating risk for the component based on the derivative and the connect rate of the component, the component gating risk being the risk that the component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order;

determining, by the computer, whether the component is a gating component based on the component gating risk for the component; and

storing an indication of the determined gating component in a memory; and

for each gating component, reporting to a user the gating risk for the component for use in determining a quantity of the gating component to purchase for availability during the planning period.

6. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 5 wherein the determining of the gating risk includes calculating a first mean production for each product assuming an increased availability of the component and a second mean production for each product assuming a decreased availability of the component.

7. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 6 wherein the gating risk is based on a difference between the first mean production and the second mean production divided by the difference in the increased availability and decreased availability of the component.

8. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 6 wherein the first mean production and the second mean production are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation.

9. A computer system for identifying a gating component for a plurality of different products estimated to be produced by a manufacturing facility during a planning period, the computer system comprising:

a memory; and

a processor configured to operate on instructions stored in the memory to

access a connect rate for each component of each product, the connect rate of a component of a product representing the number of the component needed to manufacture one unit of the product;

determine an expected demand for each of the plurality of products;

for each component of each of the products,

determine a quantity that is a maximum availability of the component;

compute a derivative of an expected quantity of the products with respect to a quantity of the component of the products, the expected quantity of the products being a mean production of the products given the quantity of the components and the expected demand for the products;

compute a component gating risk for the component based on the derivative and the connect rate of the component, the component gating risk being the risk that the component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order;

determine whether the component is a gating component based on the component gating risk for the component; and

store an indication of the determined gating component in the memory; and

for each component, determine a quantity of the gating component to purchase for availability during the planning period factoring in whether the component is a gating component.

10. The computer system of claim 9 wherein the determining of the gating risk includes calculating a first mean production for each product assuming an increased availability of the component and a second mean production for each product assuming a decreased availability of the component.

11. The computer system of claim 10 wherein the gating risk is based on a difference between the first mean production and the second mean production divided by the difference in the increased availability and decreased availability of the component.

12. The computer system of claim 10 wherein the first mean production and the second mean production are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation.