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Methods and systems for continuously estimating persistent and intermittent failure probabilities for production resources

  • US 8,165,705 B2
  • Filed: 06/23/2009
  • Issued: 04/24/2012
  • Est. Priority Date: 07/10/2008
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A method for estimating failure probabilities for resources in a production system, the method comprising:

  • using at least one processor, maintaining a set of four count values for each of a plurality of resources in a production system, the four count values for each individual resource m including;

    a first count value m11 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was used and failed,a second count value m10 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was used and succeeded,a third count value m01 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was not used and failed, anda fourth count value m00 indicating a number of plans where the resource m was not used and succeeded;

    using the at least one processor, for each plan executed in the production system, incrementing a select one of the count values for each of the resources based on a list of resources used in the plan and the success or failure of the plan;

    using the at least one processor, for each resource, estimating a current fault probability value for single or multiple, persistent or intermittent faults based on at least one of the corresponding set of count values; and

    using the at least one processor, storing the current fault probability values for the resources.

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