Electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system, electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method, and program for executing operation management support method on computer

• US 8,219,439 B2
• Filed: 04/14/2010
• Issued: 07/10/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 06/11/2003
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Iino, Yutaka, Matsumoto, Shigeru
• Primary Examiner(s): Johnson, Gregory
• Application Number:
  US12/760,275
• Publication Number:
  US 20100198640A1
• Time in Patent Office: 818 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.31, 705/7.25, 705/7.29, 705/7.33, 705/7.34, 705/7.35
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/008 involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 40/70 Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/10 Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/14 Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards

Abstract

An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system includes an analyzing unit that calculates operation plan creating basic information based upon received information with regard to lifespan calculating expressions, present electric-power market information, and operation-history information with regard to an electric power generation. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system also includes an operation plan creating unit that calculates and outputs operational conditions of electric power generating facilities as a created operation planning based upon the operation plan creating basic information calculated by the analyzing unit. The analyzing unit includes a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating unit that calculates lifespan consumption costs of the electric power generating facilities. In addition, the analyzing unit includes a reserve-electric-power-price estimating unit that estimates a market price of reserve electric power. The analyzing unit further includes a reserve-electric-power supply -probability estimating unit that estimates a probability of a supply of the reserve electric power.

Claims

1. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system, comprising:

an analyzing unit that calculates operation plan creating basic information based upon received information with regard to lifespan calculating expressions, present electric-power market information, and operation-history information with regard to an electric power generation; and

an operation plan creating unit that calculates and outputs operational conditions of electric power generating facilities as a created operation planning based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing unit,

said analyzing unit comprising

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating unit that calculates lifespan consumption costs of said electric power generating facilities,

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating unit that estimates a market price of reserve electric power, and

a reserve-electric-power supply-probability estimating unit that estimates a probability of a supply of the reserve electric power.

2. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, further comprising:

an electric-power-generation-amount-adjustment-instruction input unit that inputs and receives electric-power-generation-amount adjustment instruction values for said electric power generating facilities; and

an electric-power-generation-amount control signal transmitting unit that transmits electric-power-generation-amount control signals to said electric power generating facilities for controlling an amount of an electric power generation according to said electric-power-generation-amount adjustment instruction values received by said electric-power-generation-amount-adjustment-instruction input unit.

3. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein said analyzing unit includes an unexpected-shutdown-risk-costs receiving unit that receives information with regard to insurance fees paid to an insurance service company, as unexpected-shutdown-risk costs.

4. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, further including:

an insurance-service providing unit that provides an insurance service for hedging a risk of an unexpected shutdown of said electric power generating facilities.

5. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein said operation plan creating unit includes:

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit that calculates a profit from an electric power generation based upon information with regard to the lifespan consumption costs, the market price of the reserve electric power, and the probability of supplying the reserve electric power, analyzed by said analyzing unit;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating unit that calculates a combination of a planning-based electric-power-generation amount and a reserve electric power generation amount as operational conditions, which exhibits an optimal profit from an electric generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit; and

an optimal-operation-condition output unit that outputs said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating unit,

said electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit including

a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating unit that calculates a relation between the planning-based electric-power-generation amount which is a part of an amount of an electric power generation amount and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power,

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating unit that calculates a relation between the reserve electric power generation amount which is a part of the amount of the electric power generation amount and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power,

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating unit that calculates a relation between the reserve electric power generation amount and a reserve-electric-power supply probability,

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-revenues property calculating unit that calculates a relation between revenues from electric power generation and an amount of electric power generation, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-revenues property,

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating unit that calculates a relation between costs of an electric power generation including operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property, and

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/ reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected-profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating unit that calculates a relation between an expected profit from an electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve electric power generation amount, based upon said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation -revenues property and said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property, wherein said operational-risk costs include said lifespan consumption costs.

6. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 5, wherein said operational-risk costs include unexpected-shutdown-risk costs.

7. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method implemented by a processing unit, the electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method comprising:

calculating operation plan creating basic information; and

an operation plan creating step,

said calculating including

calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

estimating a market price of reserve electric power; and

estimating a probability of supplying the reserve electric power,

said operation plan creating step including

calculating a profit from an electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information;

calculating, with the processing unit, optimal operational conditions which exhibit an optimal profit from the electric power generation calculated by said calculating the profit; and

outputting said optimal operational conditions calculated by said calculating the optimal operational conditions to notify of said optimal operational conditions.

8. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 7, further comprising:

transmitting instruction values to each of said electric power generating facilities for adjusting an electric power generation amount of each of said electric power generating facilities for controlling an amount of electric power generation.

9. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 7, wherein said calculating the profit includes:

calculating a relation between a planning-based electric-power-generation amount which is a part of an amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information, to calculate a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property;

calculating a relation between a reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power, to calculate a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property;

calculating a relation between the reserve-electric-power generation amount and a reserve-electric-power supply probability, to calculate a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property;

calculating a relation between revenues from an electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property;

calculating a relation between costs of an electric power generation including lifespan-consumption costs as operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property; and

calculating a relation between an expected profit from an electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power-generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property.

10. The electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 7, further comprising:

receiving a request for an estimation of insurance;

estimating an unexpected-shutdown risk of an unexpected shutdown of facilities based upon past operation-history information with regard to the electric power generating facilities which are to be insured, provided according to said request;

estimating insurance fees based upon said unexpected-shutdown risk, and outputting said estimated insurance fees;

calculating a relation between a planning-based electric power generation amount which is a part of an amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information, to calculate a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property;

calculating a relation between a reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power, to calculate a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property;

calculating a relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount and a reserve-electric-power supply probability, to calculate a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property;

calculating a relation between revenues from an electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property;

calculating a relation between costs of an electric power generation including a lifespan-consumption cost and unexpected-shutdown-risk costs as an operational-risk cost; and

of the amount of electric power generation, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property;

calculating a relation between an expected profit from an electric power generation, the planning-based electric power generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power-generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property;

receiving an application of an insurance contract with said insurance fees;

executing a preliminary settlement for said insurance fees according to the application of the insurance contract;

estimating an unexpected-shutdown risk following said preliminary settlement, based upon operation-history information with regard to said insured electric power generating facilities after the insurance contract;

calculating insurance fees again based upon said unexpected-shutdown risk estimated by said estimating the unexpected-shutdown risk following said preliminary settlement; and

calculating a difference between said insurance fees calculated again by said calculating said insurance fees again and preliminary insurance fees, to execute a post-operation settlement.

11. A non-transitory computer-readable medium including computer executable instructions, wherein the instructions, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform a method for executing an operational-condition notifying processing on a computer, comprising:

calculating operation plan creating basic information;

an operation plan creating step; and

transmitting instruction values to each of electric power generating facilities for adjusting an electric power generation amount of each of said electric power generating facilities,

said calculating including

calculating lifespan-consumption costs of said electric power generating facilities;

estimating a market price of reserve electric power; and

estimating a probability of supplying the reserve electric power; and

said operation plan creating step including

calculating a profit from an electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information;

calculating optimal operational conditions which exhibit an optimal profit from the electric power generation calculated by said calculating the profit; and

outputting said optimal operational conditions to notify of said optimal operational conditions.

12. A non-transitory computer-readable medium including computer executable instructions, wherein the instructions, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform a method for executing an operation-planning notifying processing on a computer, comprising:

calculating operation plan creating basic information; and

an operation plan creating step,

said calculating including

calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

estimating a market price of reserve electric power; and

estimating a probability of supplying the reserve electric power;

said operation plan creating step including

calculating a profit from an electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information;

calculating optimal operational conditions which exhibit an optimal profit from the electric power generation calculated by said calculating the profit; and

outputting said optimal operational conditions to notify of said optimal operational conditions;

said calculating the profit including

calculating a relation between a planning-based electric-power-generation amount which is a part of an amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information, to calculate a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property;

calculating a relation between a reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of the reserve electric power, to calculate a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property;

calculating a relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount and a reserve-electric-power supply probability, to calculate a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property;

calculating a relation between revenues from an electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property;

calculating a relation between costs of an electric power generation including lifespan-consumption costs and unexpected-shutdown-risk costs as operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation, to calculate an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property; and

calculating a relation between an expected profit from an electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power-generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property.