Tropical cyclone prediction system and method
First Claim
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1. A method of predicting information related to a path of a weather phenomenon, the method comprising:
- (a) obtaining a plurality of tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon for a current forecast period from two or more sources;
(b) assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of tracks based on which of the two or more sources produced the respective track;
(c) determining, by at least one computer, a set of probabilities for the weather phenomenon to intersect a plurality of segments corresponding to a boundary using at least intersection points of the plurality of tracks with the boundary and the scaling factor assigned to each of the plurality of tracks.
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Abstract
A method of predicting information related to a path of a weather phenomenon includes obtaining a plurality of tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon from at least one source. A factor is assigned to each of the plurality of tracks. A set of probabilities for the weather phenomenon to intersect a plurality of segments corresponding to a boundary is determined using at least intersection points of the plurality of tracks with the boundary and the factor assigned to each of the plurality of tracks.
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Citations
39 Claims
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1. A method of predicting information related to a path of a weather phenomenon, the method comprising:
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(a) obtaining a plurality of tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon for a current forecast period from two or more sources; (b) assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of tracks based on which of the two or more sources produced the respective track; (c) determining, by at least one computer, a set of probabilities for the weather phenomenon to intersect a plurality of segments corresponding to a boundary using at least intersection points of the plurality of tracks with the boundary and the scaling factor assigned to each of the plurality of tracks. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
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20. A method of predicting information related to a path of a tropical cyclone intersecting a boundary, the boundary being partitioned into a plurality of segments, the method comprising:
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obtaining from each of a plurality of forecast centers a plurality of model tracks corresponding to the tropical cyclone; assigning a scaling factor to each of the model tracks based at least in part on the forecast center that produced the model track, and weighting each of the model tracks according to the corresponding scaling factor; determining for each of the plurality of model tracks from the plurality of forecast centers, a segment from the plurality of segments where the respective model track intersects the boundary; calculating a segment value for each of the plurality of segments using a weighted average of a number of the plurality of model tracks intersecting the respective segment; and determining, by at least one computer, a probability for a mean track of the tropical cyclone to intersect each segment of the boundary using the segment value for the respective segment, wherein an uncertainty of the mean track of the tropical cyclone intersecting the boundary is proportional to a variance of the intersection points for each of the plurality of model tracks at the boundary, the contribution of each intersection point to the variance based on the scaling factor for the respective model track. - View Dependent Claims (21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30)
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31. A method of predicting information related to a path of a tropical cyclone, the method comprising:
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(a) determining a set of scaling factors corresponding to each of a plurality of forecast centers; (b) assigning one of the scaling factors to each of a plurality of model tracks for the tropical cyclone, the plurality of model tracks obtained for a current forecast period from the plurality of forecast centers; (c) determining, by at least one computer, a probability for a mean track of the tropical cyclone to intersect with each of a plurality of segments defining a boundary based upon a statistical aggregating of the intersections of each of the model tracks with the boundary; and (d) estimating an uncertainty related to one or more segments of intersection, wherein the uncertainty is based at least in part on the plurality of model tracks and the corresponding scaling factors. - View Dependent Claims (32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38)
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39. An article of manufacture for predicting information related to a path of a weather phenomenon intersecting a boundary, the boundary being partitioned into a plurality of segments, the article of manufacture comprising a non-transitory computer-readable medium holding computer-executable instructions for performing a method comprising:
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obtaining from each of a plurality of forecast centers a plurality of model tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon; assigning a scaling factor to each of the model tracks based at least in part on the forecast center that produced the model track, and weighting each of the model tracks according to the corresponding scaling factor; determining for each of the plurality of model tracks from the plurality of forecast centers, a segment from the plurality of segments where the respective model track intersects the boundary; calculating a segment value for each of the plurality of segments using a weighted average of a number of the plurality of model tracks intersecting the respective segment; and determining, by at least one computer, a probability for an mean track of the weather phenomenon to intersect each segment of the boundary using the segment value for the respective segment, wherein an uncertainty of a forecast track of the tropical cyclone intersecting the boundary is proportional to a variance of the intersection points for each of the plurality of model tracks at the boundary, the contribution of each intersection point to the variance based on the scaling factor for the respective model track.
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Specification