Methods and apparatus to determine effects of promotional activity on sales
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented process for determining expected base sales for a sold product, comprising:
- obtaining sales data for a product sold at a point of sale location, the sales data organized in a time series according to a time period;
obtaining causal data identifying a promotional event for at least one of the product and the point of sale location;
excluding sales data corresponding to the promotional event to determine a time series of non-promoted sales data for the product;
processing, using a processor, the non-promoted sales data using a double exponentially smoothed moving average model including a smoothing constant that assigns exponentially decreasing weights to older sales data values as the sales data becomes older in time, the processing comprising;
executing a preliminary backward pass through the remaining sales data;
executing a preliminary forward pass through the remaining sales data;
averaging the preliminary backward pass and the preliminary forward pass;
updating the remaining sales data for the product based on second sales data for an additional time period received for the product to provide updated sales data for the product;
executing an updated backward pass through the updated sales data;
executing an updated forward pass through the updated sales data; and
averaging the updated backward pass and the forward pass;
generating, using the processor, expected base data for the product based on the double exponentially smoothed moving average model; and
outputting the expected base data for the product to a user.
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Accused Products
Abstract
Example systems, methods, processes, and apparatus for determining expected base sales for a product include obtaining sales data for a product sold at a point of sale location. The sales data can be organized in a time series according to a predetermined time period. The method further includes identifying a promotional event for at least one of the product and the point of sale location and excluding sales data corresponding to the promotional event. The remaining sales data is processed using a smoothed moving average model involving a plurality of passes through the remaining sales data. Expected base data for the product is generated based on the smoothed moving average model and output to a user.
26 Citations
14 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented process for determining expected base sales for a sold product, comprising:
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obtaining sales data for a product sold at a point of sale location, the sales data organized in a time series according to a time period; obtaining causal data identifying a promotional event for at least one of the product and the point of sale location; excluding sales data corresponding to the promotional event to determine a time series of non-promoted sales data for the product; processing, using a processor, the non-promoted sales data using a double exponentially smoothed moving average model including a smoothing constant that assigns exponentially decreasing weights to older sales data values as the sales data becomes older in time, the processing comprising; executing a preliminary backward pass through the remaining sales data; executing a preliminary forward pass through the remaining sales data; averaging the preliminary backward pass and the preliminary forward pass; updating the remaining sales data for the product based on second sales data for an additional time period received for the product to provide updated sales data for the product; executing an updated backward pass through the updated sales data; executing an updated forward pass through the updated sales data; and averaging the updated backward pass and the forward pass; generating, using the processor, expected base data for the product based on the double exponentially smoothed moving average model; and outputting the expected base data for the product to a user. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
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8. A tangible computer readable storage medium including a program which, when executed, causes a machine to implement a process for determining expected base sales for a sold product, comprising:
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obtaining sales data for a product sold at a point of sale location, the sales data organized in a time series according to a time period; obtaining causal data identifying a promotional event for at least one of the product and the point of sale location; excluding sales data corresponding to the promotional event to determine a time series of non-promoted sales data for the product; processing the non-promoted sales data using a double exponentially smoothed moving average model including a smoothing constant that assigns exponentially decreasing weights to older sales data values as the sales data becomes older in time, the processing comprising; executing a preliminary backward pass through the remaining sales data; executing a preliminary forward pass through the remaining sales data; averaging the preliminary backward pass and the preliminary forward pass; updating the remaining sales data for the product based on second sales data for an additional time period received for the product to provide updated sales data for the product; executing an updated backward pass through the updated sales data; executing an updated forward pass through the updated sales data; and averaging the updated backward pass and the forward pass; and generating expected base data for the product based on the double exponentially smoothed moving average model. - View Dependent Claims (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
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Specification