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Methods and apparatus to determine effects of promotional activity on sales

  • US 8,265,989 B2
  • Filed: 05/05/2009
  • Issued: 09/11/2012
  • Est. Priority Date: 05/05/2009
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A computer-implemented process for determining expected base sales for a sold product, comprising:

  • obtaining sales data for a product sold at a point of sale location, the sales data organized in a time series according to a time period;

    obtaining causal data identifying a promotional event for at least one of the product and the point of sale location;

    excluding sales data corresponding to the promotional event to determine a time series of non-promoted sales data for the product;

    processing, using a processor, the non-promoted sales data using a double exponentially smoothed moving average model including a smoothing constant that assigns exponentially decreasing weights to older sales data values as the sales data becomes older in time, the processing comprising;

    executing a preliminary backward pass through the remaining sales data;

    executing a preliminary forward pass through the remaining sales data;

    averaging the preliminary backward pass and the preliminary forward pass;

    updating the remaining sales data for the product based on second sales data for an additional time period received for the product to provide updated sales data for the product;

    executing an updated backward pass through the updated sales data;

    executing an updated forward pass through the updated sales data; and

    averaging the updated backward pass and the forward pass;

    generating, using the processor, expected base data for the product based on the double exponentially smoothed moving average model; and

    outputting the expected base data for the product to a user.

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