Auction optimization system

• US 8,266,009 B1
• Filed: 08/22/2003
• Issued: 09/11/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 08/22/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Earthtrax Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Earthtrax Incorporated
• Inventors: Devlin, Bryan Kerry, Hill, Mark
• Primary Examiner(s): Hammond, III, Thomas M
• Application Number:
  US10/646,096
• Time in Patent Office: 3,308 Days
• Field of Search: 705 35- 40
• US Class Current: 705/26.3
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes

Abstract

Methods, apparatuses and systems directed to an auction optimization system that assists users in determining one or more parameters associated with a planned auction. In one embodiment, the auction optimization system computes a predicted final auction price for a given item based on historical auction data associated with the same or similar items. In other embodiments, the auction optimization system is operative to compute suggestions for various auction parameters, such as starting price, start time, duration, and reserve price. In certain embodiments, the auction optimization system uses novel data gathering techniques that minimize the load on on-line auction facilities and gather data in a manner consistent with the use policies associated with on-line auction facilities.

Claims

1. A method facilitating the configuration of one or more parameters associated with an auction for an item, the method comprising:

receiving, by one or more computing devices each comprising a processor, a memory and computer-program code stored in a computer-readable medium, historical auction data characterizing a plurality of completed auctions for an item of interest, the historical auction data comprising bid histories for each of the plurality of completed auctions;

determining, by the one or more computing devices, based on analysis of respective bid histories, a weighting value for each of the completed auctions characterizing the relevance of each completed auction to the computation of at least one suggested auction parameter for a contemplated auction for the item of interest, wherein the determining step for each of the completed auctions comprises;

computing component factor weightings for two or more of any of a total number of bids, a number of bids placed during a last time period of an auction, a largest change in bid amount, a timing of higher bids, an absolute idle time between start of auction and first bid, and an absolute idle time during middle and end of auction period; and

aggregating the component factor weightings to create the weighting value for the completed auction;

analyzing, by the one or more computing devices, the historical auction data, based in part on the determined weighting values of each of the completed auctions;

computing at least one suggested auction parameter, wherein contributions of the completed auctions to computation of the at least one suggested auction parameter is based on the weighting values of each of the completed auctions; and

generating, by the one or more computing devices, a report including the at least one suggested auction parameter for the contemplated auction for the item of interest.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the suggested auction parameter is a suggested start price for the contemplated auction.

3. A method facilitating prediction of a final auction price for an item of interest, the method comprising:

receiving, by one or more computing devices each comprising a processor, a memory and computer-program code stored in a computer-readable medium, auction information characterizing a plurality of completed auctions for an item of interest, the auction information, for each completed auction, comprising a final auction price, an auction end time, and at least one additional auction attribute;

determining, by the one or more computing devices, based on analysis of respective bid histories corresponding to the plurality of completed auctions, relevance weighting values for the completed auctions relative to a contemplated auction for the item of interest, wherein the relevance weighting value for each of the completed auctions characterizes the relevance of each completed auction to the computation of a final auction price for a contemplated auction for the item of interest, and wherein the determining step for each of the completed auctions comprises;

computing component factor weightings for two or more of any of a total number of bids, a number of bids placed during a last time period of an auction, a largest change in bid amount, a timing of higher bids, an absolute idle time between start of auction and first bid, and an absolute idle time during middle and end of auction period; and

aggregating the component factor weightings to create the weighting value for the completed auction;

constructing, by the one or more computing devices, a financial analysis model based on the auction information by;

segregating, based on associated auction end times, the final auction prices into corresponding time intervals;

weighting the final auction prices by corresponding relevance weighting values; and

computing the average, weighted final auction price and volume in each time interval; and

predicting, by the one or more computing devices, an estimated final auction price in the contemplated auction for the item of interest based on the financial analysis model.

4. The method of claim 3 further comprising computing a suggested starting price for the item of interest.

5. The method of claim 3 wherein the at least one additional auction attribute comprises the number of bids in each of the completed auctions.

6. The method of claim 3 wherein the at least one additional auction attribute comprises the idle time between the auction start and the first bid.

7. The method of claim 3 wherein the at least one additional auction attribute comprises the number of bids placed within a predetermined amount of time from the end of the auction.

8. The method of claim 3 wherein the at least one additional auction attribute comprises the highest price difference between two consecutive bids.

9. A method facilitating the configuration of one or more parameters associated with an auction for an item of interest, the method comprising:

receiving, by one or more computing devices each comprising a processor, a memory and computer-program code stored in a computer-readable medium, historical auction data characterizing a plurality of completed auctions for an item of interest, the auction information, for each completed auction, comprising a final auction price, an auction end time, and at least one additional auction attribute;

determining, by the one or more computing devices, based on analysis of respective bid histories corresponding to the plurality of completed auctions, relevance weighting values for the completed auctions, wherein the relevance weighting value for each of the completed auctions characterizes the relevance of each completed auction to the computation of a final auction price for a contemplated auction for the item of interest, and wherein the determining step for each of the completed auctions comprises;

computing component factor weightings for two or more of any of a total number of bids, a number of bids placed during a last time period of an auction, a largest change in bid amount, a timing of higher bids, an absolute idle time between start of auction and first bid, and an absolute idle time during middle and end of auction period; and

aggregating the component factor weightings to create the relevance weighting value for the completed auction;

weighting, by the one or more computing devices, final auction prices of the completed auctions by respective weighting values;

constructing, by the one or more computing devices, a financial analysis model based on the auction information by;

segregating, based on associated auction end times, the final auction prices into corresponding time intervals;

weighting the final auction prices by corresponding relevance weighting values; and

computing the average, weighted final auction price and volume in each time interval;

predicting, by the one or more computing devices, an estimated final auction price for the item of interest based on the financial analysis model;

computing, by the one or more computing devices, a suggested starting price for a contemplated auction for the item of interest based on the estimated final auction price and the historical auction data; and

generating, by the one or more computing devices, a report including the suggested starting price.

10. The method of claim 9 further comprising:

analyzing the historical auction data and the weighted final auction prices; and

computing at least one additional suggested auction parameter that maximizes final auction price of a contemplated auction.

11. The method of claim 9 wherein the at least one additional suggested auction parameter is a suggested auction duration.

12. The method of claim 9 wherein the at least one additional suggested auction parameter is a suggested auction start time.

13. The method of claim 9 wherein the at least one additional suggested auction parameter is a suggested reserve price.

14. The method of claim 9 wherein the at least one additional suggested auction parameter is a suggested buy-it-now price.

15. The method of claim 9 wherein the at least one additional suggested auction parameter is a suggested number of items.

16. An auction optimization system facilitating the configuration of an auction, the auction optimization system comprising:

a memory;

a processor; and

an application server program stored in a computer-readable medium comprising instructions operative, when executed, to cause the processor to;

receive auction information characterizing a plurality of completed auctions for an item of interest;

determine, based on analysis of respective bid histories corresponding to each of the plurality of completed auctions, relevance weighting values for the completed auctions, wherein to determine the relevance weighting values for each of the completed auctions, the instructions are operative to cause the processor to;

compute component factor weightings for two or more of any of a total number of bids, a number of bids placed during a last time period of an auction, a largest change in bid amount, a timing of higher bids, an absolute idle time between start of auction and first bid, and an absolute idle time during middle and end of auction period; and

aggregate the component factor weightings to create the weighting value for the completed auction;

weight final auction prices of the completed auctions by respective weighting values;

analyze the auction information and the weighted final auction prices;

compute at least one suggested auction parameter that maximizes final auction price of a contemplated auction for the item of interest, wherein contributions of the completed auctions to computation of the at least one suggested auction parameter is based on the weighting values of each of the completed auctions; and

generate a report including the at least one suggested auction parameter for the contemplated auction.

17. The auction optimization system of claim 16 further comprising a data warehouse maintaining auction information characterizing a plurality of completed auctions.

18. The auction optimization system of claim 16 wherein the application server program further comprises instructions operative to cause the processor to interact with a client device to receive auction information from an on-line auction facility.