Predictive analytic method and apparatus

• US 8,301,628 B2
• Filed: 09/27/2010
• Issued: 10/30/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 01/12/2005
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Métier Ltd.
• Original Assignee: Métier Ltd.
• Inventors: Clark, Douglas, Pieslak, Brian, Gipson, Brian, Walton, Zachary
• Primary Examiner(s): Hoang, Son T
• Application Number:
  US12/891,047
• Publication Number:
  US 20110016078A1
• Time in Patent Office: 764 Days
• Field of Search: 707/736, 707/758
• US Class Current: 707/736
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/022 Knowledge engineering; Knowledge acquisition
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

A computerized project management analytical system and method that develops and manages an ontology that links objects and is capable of being mined. The ontology is comprised of a project ontology framework, a matching engine and a project status matrix that illustrates a multi-relational view of the project status, of confidence levels, or interdiction points and/or positions on project timelines.

Claims

1. A computer based assessment tool for providing a current project status and predicting a future project status, the tool comprising:

a computer memory storing a project ontology framework (POF), wherein the POF has at least one class and subclass;

one or more computer processors configured to;

classify a plurality of incoming messages into a class or subclass within the POF based on a source of each of the messages and assign a confidence level to each of the incoming messages based on the classification;

extracting the current project status from the plurality of incoming messages based on the source and the assigned confidence level of each of the incoming messages;

input first classified messages with a first assigned confidence level into a matching function that;

compares the first classified messages to pre-stored data formatted according to the POF,

generates a match score, and

modifies an operation of the POF when the match score exceeds a certain threshold;

inputs second classified messages with a second assigned confidence level to a mapping function that;

formats the second classified messages according to at least one class within the POF, and

inputs the formatted second classified messages into the matching function;

inputs third classified messages with a third assigned confidence level into a parsing function that;

parses words and phrases in the third classified messages,

generates tags identifying attributes of the parsed words and phrases in the third classified messages, and

inputs the third classified messages with the tags into the mapping function, and

inputs results of the mapping function corresponding to the third classified messages with the tags into the matching function;

predicts the future project status based on match score of each of the plurality of incoming messages based on the matching function;

generates a status matrix providing a multi-relational representation of the current project status and predicted future project status; and

a display configured to display the status matrix.

2. The computer based assessment tool of claim 1, wherein the POF includes a plurality of template projects, discrete project activities, project roles, project template lexicons, project template lexicon networks, sponsor organization lexicon, sponsor organization social networks, sponsor organization lexicon networks, inter-sponsor organization social networks, inter sponsor organizational lexicon networks, project template activity networks, inter project template activity networks, and a sponsor organization project portfolio.

3. The computer based assessment tool of claim 1, wherein the status matrix is organized by a sponsoring organization.

4. The computer based assessment tool of claim 3, wherein the status matrix of the sponsoring organizations is broken down into projects.

5. The computer based assessment tool of claim 1, wherein the status matrix includes a plurality of interdiction points, confidence levels, current status and a position on the project timeline, wherein each of the plurality of interdiction points representing a time when a threat has a weakness or an exposure point.

6. The computer based assessment tool of claim 1, wherein the POF is broken down into multiple classes including at least lexicon, portfolios, project templates, activities and roles.

7. The computer based assessment tool of claim 6, wherein the lexicon class provides a knowledge base about a subset of words in a vocabulary of a natural language.

8. The computer based assessment tool of claim 7, wherein the lexicon class includes lexicon networks which are networks or matrices of words that are networked grammatically and cognitively.

9. The computer based assessment tool of claim 8, wherein the lexicon networks are constructed at a portfolio level, per project template, activity and role.

10. The computer based assessment tool of claim 6, wherein the lexicon class includes a WordNet®

database, and entity and specialized lexicons mapped to the WordNet®

database.

11. The computer based assessment tool of claim 6, wherein the portfolio class includes subclasses of sponsor, projects, roles and lexicons not clearly associated with a project or an activity, related portfolios and other metadata.

12. The computer based assessment tool of claim 6, wherein subclasses of the project template include at least a plurality of sponsor organizations, lexicons and roles that are not clearly associated with an activity, and other meta data.

13. The computer based assessment tool of claim 6, wherein the activity class of the POF is comprised of at least one of verbs, nouns, adjectives, adverbs, roles, time sequence of events or actions, related activities and other meta data.

14. The computer based assessment tool of claim 6, wherein the role class of the POF is comprised of subclasses of skills, functions, command relationships, tools, named individuals acting in a particular role, related roles and other meta data.

15. The computer based assessment tool of claim 6, further comprising:

a base POF that is a complete POF structure without any mapping of data.

16. The computer based assessment tool of claim 15, wherein classes of the base POF can change depending on changes to relationship data and to measured activity.

17. The computer based assessment tool of claim 16, wherein real time instances of the base POF are created by combining a learning algorithm with the base POF.

18. The computer based assessment tool of claim 17, wherein as data is inputted into the assessment tool, the learning algorithm is constantly generating echoes of the base POF, wherein the echoes are used to control quality of the inputted data.

19. The computer based assessment tool of claim 1, wherein the one or more processors are configured to perform functions including data receipt, routing, parsing and formatting, mapping, echo generation and echo maintenance, wherein echoes are used to control quality of the inputted data.

20. A system for threat prediction, comprising:

a computer memory storing a project ontology framework (POF), wherein the POF has at least one class and subclass;

one or more computer processors configured to

associate a given piece of data with a class or subclass within the POF based on a source of the given piece of data,

extract a current project status from the given piece of data associated with the class or the subclass,

assign a confidence level to the given piece of data associated with the class or subclass,

compares the given piece of data with the assigned confidence level to pre-stored data formatted according to the POF,

generate a match score based on the comparison,

predict a future project status based on the match score,

identify at least one threat within the current project status and the predicted future project status,

generate a status matrix providing a multi-relational representation of a current project status and a future project status, wherein

the status matrix illustrating timelines for a plurality of projects associated with a plurality of organizations,

each timeline including a first marker indicating the current project status on a project timeline and a second marker indicating at least one interdiction point representing a time on the project timeline when the at least one threat has a weakness or an exposure point;

a display configured to display the status matrix.