Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function
First Claim
1. A method for estimating remaining useful life (RUL) of a battery during discharge of the battery, the method comprising providing a computer system that is programmed:
- to provide or receive a quantitative empirical model with at least one associated model parameter for at least one electro-chemical process that is active during discharge of the battery;
to receive and use measured values provided by one or more sensors for at least one electro-chemical process that is active during discharge of the battery;
to receive and use training data comprising at least one of;
at least one operating, condition for the battery, at least one sensor measurement value for battery operation, and at least one ground truth attribute for battery discharge;
to compute and incorporate at least one numerical parameter value for the electro-chemical process that characterizes battery discharge behavior;
to identify at least one uncertainty in the quantitative model, including an uncertainty range for the at least one model parameter and an uncertainty range for the at least one measured sensor value;
to provide and incorporate at least one numerical value for at least one probability density function (pdf) corresponding to a distribution of the at least one uncertainty;
to provide at least one process model of at least one process component with at least one estimate of an value of a probability density function (pdf) for a distribution of at least one uncertainty in the at least one process model, to provide a characterization of battery discharge;
to provide or receive run-time data, including the at least one battery operating condition and at least one sensor measurement value; and
to apply the quantitative model of the battery in a particle filtering framework to estimate at least one battery discharge variable of interest, comprising at least one of state of charge (SOC) and terminal voltage of the battery, and to contemporaneously modify the at least one model parameter value used in the quantitative model.
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Abstract
This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.
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Citations
38 Claims
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1. A method for estimating remaining useful life (RUL) of a battery during discharge of the battery, the method comprising providing a computer system that is programmed:
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to provide or receive a quantitative empirical model with at least one associated model parameter for at least one electro-chemical process that is active during discharge of the battery; to receive and use measured values provided by one or more sensors for at least one electro-chemical process that is active during discharge of the battery; to receive and use training data comprising at least one of;
at least one operating, condition for the battery, at least one sensor measurement value for battery operation, and at least one ground truth attribute for battery discharge;to compute and incorporate at least one numerical parameter value for the electro-chemical process that characterizes battery discharge behavior; to identify at least one uncertainty in the quantitative model, including an uncertainty range for the at least one model parameter and an uncertainty range for the at least one measured sensor value; to provide and incorporate at least one numerical value for at least one probability density function (pdf) corresponding to a distribution of the at least one uncertainty; to provide at least one process model of at least one process component with at least one estimate of an value of a probability density function (pdf) for a distribution of at least one uncertainty in the at least one process model, to provide a characterization of battery discharge; to provide or receive run-time data, including the at least one battery operating condition and at least one sensor measurement value; and to apply the quantitative model of the battery in a particle filtering framework to estimate at least one battery discharge variable of interest, comprising at least one of state of charge (SOC) and terminal voltage of the battery, and to contemporaneously modify the at least one model parameter value used in the quantitative model. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
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9. A method for estimating remaining useful life (RUL) of a battery over battery cycle life as the battery experiences a plurality of charge, discharge, and rest periods, the method comprising providing a computer system that is programmed:
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to provide or receive a quantitative empirical model with at least one associated parameter to be determined from sensor measurements, wherein the basis for the form of the model is linked to at least one internal electro-chemical process of the battery that is active during at least one of charge, discharge and rest period of the battery; to receive and use at least one of said measured values provided by one or more sensors for the at least one electro-chemical process that is active during the at least one of the charge, discharge and rest periods of the battery, to infer or estimate at least one numerical parameter value for the model; to receive training data, comprising at least one of;
at least one operating condition for the battery, battery storage condition, at least one measured sensor value for battery operation, and at least one ground truth attribute for battery capacity;to identify at least one uncertainty in the quantitative model, including an uncertainty range for at least one model parameter and an uncertainty range for at least one measured sensor value, and to initialize at least one probability density function (pdf) for a distribution of the at least one uncertainty; to provide at least one process model of at least one process component with at least one estimate of the at least one uncertainty pdf to provide a characterization of battery ageing behavior; to provide or receive run-time data, including the at least one battery operating condition, battery storage condition, and the at least one sensor measurement value for battery operation; and to apply the quantitative model of the battery in a particle filtering framework to track or monitor at least one battery cycle life variable of interest, comprising at least one of state of life (SOL) and capacity of the battery, and to contemporaneously modify at least one model parameter value used in the quantitative model. - View Dependent Claims (10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
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20. A system for estimating remaining useful life (RUL) of a battery during discharge of the battery, embodying a program on instructions executable by a computer, wherein the computer system is programmed:
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to provide or receive a quantitative empirical model with at least one associated model parameter for at least one electro-chemical process that is active during discharge of the battery; to receive and use measured values provided by one or more sensors for at least one electro-chemical process that is active during discharge of the battery; to receive and use training data comprising at least one of;
at least one operating condition for the battery, at least one sensor measurement value for battery operation, and at least one ground truth attribute for battery discharge;to compute and incorporate at least one numerical parameter value for the electro-chemical process that characterizes battery discharge behavior; to identify at least one uncertainty in the quantitative model, including an uncertainty range for at least one model parameter and an uncertainty range for at least one measured sensor value; to provide and incorporate at least one numerical value for at least one probability density function (pdf) corresponding to a distribution of the at least one uncertainty; to provide at least one process model of at least one process component with at least one estimate of a value of a probability density function (pdf) for a distribution of at least one uncertainty in the at least one process model, to provide a characterization of battery discharge; to provide or receive run-time data, including the at least one battery operating condition and the at least one sensor measurement value; and to apply the quantitative model of the battery in a particle filtering framework to provide an estimate of at least one battery discharge variable of interest, comprising state of charge (SOC) and terminal voltage of the battery, and to contemporaneously modify at least one model parameter value used in the quantitative model. - View Dependent Claims (21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27)
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28. A system for estimating remaining useful life (RUL) of a battery over battery cycle life as the battery experiences a plurality of charge, discharge, and rest periods, embodying a program on instructions executable by a computer, wherein the computer system is programmed:
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to provide or receive a quantitative empirical model with at least one associated parameter to be determined from sensor measurements, wherein the basis for the form of the model is linked to at least one internal electro-chemical process of the battery that is active during at least one of charge, discharge and rest period of the battery; to receive and use at least one measured value provided by one or more sensors for the at least one electro-chemical process that is active during the at least one of the charge, discharge and rest periods of the battery, to infer or estimate at least one numerical parameter value for the model; to receive training data, comprising at least one of;
at least one operating condition for the battery, battery storage condition, at least one measured sensor value for battery operation, and at least one ground truth attribute for battery capacity;to identify at least one uncertainty in the quantitative model, including an uncertainty range for at least one model parameter and an uncertainty range for at least one measured sensor value, and to initialize at least one probability density function (pdf) for a distribution of the at least one uncertainty; to provide at least one process model of at least one process component with at least one estimate of the at least one uncertainty pdf to provide a characterization of battery ageing behavior; to provide or receive run-time data, including at least one of battery operating condition, battery storage condition, and the at least one sensor measurement value for battery operation; and to apply the quantitative model of the battery in a particle filtering framework to provide an estimate of at least one battery cycle life variable of interest, comprising state of life (SOL) and capacity of the battery, and to contemporaneously modify at least one model parameter value used in the quantitative model. - View Dependent Claims (29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38)
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Specification