Predicting remaining useful life for a computer system using a stress-based prediction technique
First Claim
1. A method for predicting a remaining useful life (RUL) for a component in a set of components within a computer system, wherein the set of components includes a monitored component, the method comprising, in at least one computer, performing operations for:
- collecting values of at least one degradation-related parameter associated with the operation of the monitored component within the computer system, wherein the degradation-related parameter is a direct measurement of a degree of degradation of the monitored component;
collecting values of at least one stress-based parameter from the computer system, wherein the stress-based parameter measures an accumulative stress in the operating environment of the set of components which can cause degradation of the set of components; and
predicting an RUL for a component in the set of components using at least a predicted first RUL for the monitored component and a predicted second RUL for the set of components, wherein the first RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one degradation-related parameter and the second RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one stress-based parameter;
wherein predicting the RUL for the component in the set of components using at least the first RUL and the second RUL involves;
determining if the first RUL indicates that the monitored component is not close to failure and if the second RUL indicates that the set of components is close to failure; and
if so, predicting the RUL for the monitored component based on the first RUL when the first RUL is associated with a first confidence level; and
otherwise, predicting the RUL for the monitored component based on the second RUL when the first RUL is associated with a second confidence level that is lower than the first confidence level.
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Abstract
One embodiment of the present invention provides a system for predicting a remaining useful life (RUL) for a component in a set of components within a computer system. The system starts by collecting values of at least one degradation-related parameter associated with the operation of a monitored component within the computer system. Note that the degradation-related parameter is a direct measurement of a degree of degradation of the monitored component. The system additionally collects values of at least one stress-based parameter from the computer system. Note that the stress-based parameter measures an accumulative stress in the operating environment of the set of components which can cause degradation of the set of components. The system then uses the values of the at least one degradation-related parameter and the values of the at least one stress-based parameter to predict an RUL for a component in the set of components.
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Citations
18 Claims
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1. A method for predicting a remaining useful life (RUL) for a component in a set of components within a computer system, wherein the set of components includes a monitored component, the method comprising, in at least one computer, performing operations for:
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collecting values of at least one degradation-related parameter associated with the operation of the monitored component within the computer system, wherein the degradation-related parameter is a direct measurement of a degree of degradation of the monitored component; collecting values of at least one stress-based parameter from the computer system, wherein the stress-based parameter measures an accumulative stress in the operating environment of the set of components which can cause degradation of the set of components; and predicting an RUL for a component in the set of components using at least a predicted first RUL for the monitored component and a predicted second RUL for the set of components, wherein the first RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one degradation-related parameter and the second RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one stress-based parameter; wherein predicting the RUL for the component in the set of components using at least the first RUL and the second RUL involves; determining if the first RUL indicates that the monitored component is not close to failure and if the second RUL indicates that the set of components is close to failure; and if so, predicting the RUL for the monitored component based on the first RUL when the first RUL is associated with a first confidence level; and otherwise, predicting the RUL for the monitored component based on the second RUL when the first RUL is associated with a second confidence level that is lower than the first confidence level. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. An apparatus that predicts a remaining useful life (RUL) for a component in a set of components within a computer system, wherein the set of components includes a monitored component, comprising:
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a collection mechanism coupled to the computer system, wherein the collection mechanism is configured to collect values of at least one degradation-related parameter associated with the operation of the monitored component within the computer system, wherein the degradation-related parameter is a direct measurement of a degree of degradation of the monitored component; wherein the collection mechanism is further configured to collect values of at least one stress-based parameter from the computer system, wherein the stress-based parameter measures an accumulative stress in the operating environment of the set of components which can cause degradation of the set of components; and a first RUL prediction mechanism coupled to the collection mechanism, wherein the first RUL prediction mechanism is configured to predict an RUL for a component in the set of components using at least a predicted first RUL for the monitored component and a predicted second RUL for the set of components, wherein the first RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one degradation-related parameter and the second RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one stress-based parameter; wherein the first RUL prediction mechanism is configured to; determine if the first RUL indicates that the monitored component is not close to failure and if the second RUL indicates that the set of components is close to failure; and if so, predict the RUL for the monitored component based on the first RUL when the first RUL is associated with a first confidence level; and otherwise, predict the RUL for the monitored component based on the second RUL when the first RUL is associated with a second confidence level that is lower than the first confidence level. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A computer-readable storage medium storing instructions that when executed by a computer cause the computer to perform a method for predicting a remaining useful life (RUL) for a component in a set of components within a computer system, wherein the set of components includes a monitored component, the method comprising:
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collecting values of at least one degradation-related parameter associated with the operation of the monitored component within the computer system, wherein the degradation-related parameter is a direct measurement of a degree of degradation of the monitored component; collecting values of at least one stress-based parameter from the computer system, wherein the stress-based parameter measures an accumulative stress in the operating environment of the set of components which can cause degradation of the set of components; and predicting an RUL for a component in the set of components using at least a predicted first RUL for the monitored component and a predicted second RUL for the set of components, wherein the first RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one degradation-related parameter and the second RUL is predicted based at least on the values of the at least one stress-based parameter; wherein predicting the RUL for the component in the set of components using at least the first RUL and the second RUL involves; determining if the first RUL indicates that the monitored component is not close to failure and if the second RUL indicates that the set of components is close to failure; and if so, predicting the RUL for the monitored component based on the first RUL when the first RUL is associated with a first confidence level; and otherwise, predicting the RUL for the monitored component based on the second RUL when the first RUL is associated with a second confidence level that is lower than the first confidence level. - View Dependent Claims (18)
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Specification