Asset management systems and methods

• US 8,423,397 B2
• Filed: 08/08/2008
• Issued: 04/16/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 08/08/2008
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: PinnacleAIS
• Original Assignee: PinnacleAIS
• Inventors: Sitton, Ryan
• Primary Examiner(s): FLYNN, KEVIN H
• Application Number:
  US12/188,255
• Publication Number:
  US 20100036702A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,712 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.12, 705/7.22, 705/7.28, 705/7.36, 705/7.41
• US Class Current: 705/7.28
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

Systems, methods, and software for reliability, hazard, and integrity optimization are disclosed. In at least some embodiments, the software includes an input module, a failure model module, a simulation module, and an optimization module. The input module accepts a list of assets to be managed and determines design data and process data for each asset. The failure model module determines probability of failure curve parameters for each asset degradation mode. The simulation module simulates an asset management plan to determine a total management cost that includes costs for predicted failures as well as risk-weighted costs for each degradation mode of each asset generates alternative management plans for evaluation by the simulation module and provides a selected management plan for display to a user. In each embodiment, the total management costs may account not only for direct costs, but also for safety costs, environmental costs, and business costs.

Claims

1. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium that, when placed in operable relation to a processing device, provides software to effect a determination of an optimal asset management plan, the software comprising:

an input module that accepts a list of assets to be managed and accepts design data and process data for each asset;

a failure module that determines probability of failure curve parameters for each of a plurality of degradation modes of each asset;

a simulation module that predicts asset failures based on the probability of failure curve parameters at a particular time exceeding predetermined failure probability thresholds, and determines failure costs for each asset failure that is predicted to have occurred based on the predetermined failure probability thresholds being exceeded, and

wherein the simulation module further calculates risk-weighted costs for each degradation mode of each asset, wherein each risk-weighted cost corresponds to a cumulative probability of failure determined from the failure curve parameters, multiplied by a consequence cost, wherein said simulation module produces a total management cost that includes scheduled event costs and a combination of the failure costs and the risk-weighted costs; and

an optimization module that generates alternative management plans for evaluation by the simulation module and provides an optimal management plan for display to a user.

2. The medium of claim 1, wherein the optimal management plan represents the lowest cost to return ratio for the list of assets.

3. The medium of claim 1, wherein the failure costs and risk-weighted costs include a direct cost, a safety cost, an environmental cost, and a business cost, and wherein the safety cost is a function of personal exposure factor, recordable incident rate, work effort, average cost of safety incident, severity of exposure, and number of personnel in a plant.

4. The medium of claim 1, wherein the set of degradation modes includes corrosion, thinning, cracking, creep, mechanical failure, and fouling.

5. The medium of claim 1, wherein the input module further accepts asset-specific degradation data, asset-specific activity cost data, and asset-specific modification data.

6. A plant management method that comprises:

identifying multiple assets in the plant;

identifying multiple degradation modes;

generating predictions regarding whether each asset will fail within a planned time frame based on probability of failure estimates at specific times within the planned time frame exceeding predetermined failure probability thresholds;

estimating failure costs that would result from each generated asset failure prediction;

determining risk-weighted costs over the planned time frame for each degradation mode of each asset, wherein each risk-weighted cost corresponds to cumulative probability of failure estimates over the planned time frame for each degradation mode of each asset, multiplied by a consequence cost;

combining said risk-weighted costs and failure costs with scheduled event costs to obtain a total management cost; and

displaying to a user an optimal management plan that specifies an inspection and maintenance schedule for each of said assets,

wherein a processing device performs said generating, estimating, determining, combining, and displaying operations.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein for each predicted failure, the method further comprises generating subsequent predictions that account for repairs or replacements performed in response to previous predicted failures.

8. The method of claim 6, further comprising:

establishing a primary model based on said predictions and costs;

formulating a derivative model by applying one or more variations to the primary model;

performing said generating, estimating, determining, and combining operations for the derivative model; and

replacing the primary model with the derivative model if the derivative model is determined to be better than the primary model, wherein said determination is based at least in part on the costs of the primary and derivative models.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein said one or more variations are selected from a set of variations that include changing inspection schedules, changing types of inspections, applying preventative repairs, and applying modifications to the assets.

10. The method of claim 8, further comprising:

repeating said formulating, performing, and replacing operations to determine a model that provides a reduced-cost plan for managing said assets; and

displaying the plan to a user.

11. The method of claim 6, wherein the degradation modes include corrosion, thinning, cracking, creep, mechanical failure, and fouling.

12. The method of claim 6, wherein said generating predictions includes:

determining probability of failure curve parameters for each degradation mode of each asset;

calculating a probability of failure based on the probability of failure curve parameters at one or more times within the planned time frame; and

comparing each probability of failure to a threshold to predict whether failure will occur.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the probability of failure curve parameters include a life factor and at least one parameter indicative of consistency.

14. The method of claim 6, wherein said estimating a cost comprises determining a direct cost, a safety cost, and environmental cost, and a business cost, and wherein the safety cost is a function of personal exposure factor, recordable incident rate, work effort, average cost of safety incident, severity of exposure, and number of personnel in a plant.

15. A reliability, hazard, and integrity optimization system that comprises:

a memory that stores optimization software; and

one or more processors coupled to the memory to execute the software, wherein the software configures the one or more processors to;

obtain a list of assets to be managed;

obtain a set of degradation modes applicable to said assets;

generate a prediction of whether each asset will fail within a planned time frame based on probability of failure estimates at specific times within the planned time frame exceeding predetermined failure probability thresholds;

estimate failure costs that would result from each generated asset failure prediction;

determine risk-weighted costs over the time frame for each degradation mode of each asset, wherein each risk-weighted cost corresponds to cumulative probability of failure estimates over the planned time frame for each degradation mode of each asset, multiplied by a consequence cost;

combine said failure costs and risk-weighted costs with scheduled event costs to obtain a total management cost; and

analyze whether various actions reduce the total management cost.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein the software further configures the one or more processors to:

determine a schedule of actions for each asset, wherein the schedule provides a reduced total management cost; and

output the schedule to a user of said system.

17. The system of claim 15, wherein the set of degradation modes includes corrosion, thinning, cracking, creep, mechanical failure, and fouling.

18. The system of claim 15, wherein said actions include:

performing a repair to an asset during a turnaround preceding a predicted failure of that asset, performing an intrusive inspection of an asset at each turnaround;

performing periodic non-intrusive inspections of an asset; and

performing a modification to an asset during a turnaround period.

19. The system of claim 15, wherein said estimated cost comprises a direct cost, a safety cost, an environmental cost, and a business cost, and wherein the safety cost is a function of personal exposure factor, recordable incident rate, work effort, average cost of safety incident, severity of exposure, and number of personnel in a plant.

20. The system of claim 15, wherein said generate a prediction includes:

determine probability of failure curve parameters for each degradation mode of each asset;

calculate a probability of failure based on the probability of failure curve parameters at one or more times within the planned time frame; and

compare each probability of failure to a threshold to predict whether failure will occur.