Techniques for estimating sales of items through a particular channel

• US 8,452,635 B2
• Filed: 08/27/2004
• Issued: 05/28/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 09/05/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: IMS Software Services Ltd. (IQVIA Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: IMS Software Services Ltd. (IQVIA Holdings, Inc.)
• Inventors: Caron, Jerome, St-Martin, Pierre, Rios, Carlos, Pirollo, Lino
• Primary Examiner(s): Boyce, Andre
• Assistant Examiner(s): DICKERSON, TIPHANY B
• Application Number:
  US10/928,840
• Publication Number:
  US 20060122888A1
• Time in Patent Office: 3,196 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.29, 705/2
• US Class Current: 705/7.29
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/06 Buying, selling or leasing transactions
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0601 Electronic shopping [e-shopping]

Abstract

In one arrangement, a method for estimating sales of a particular type of item by a first entity through a first channel versus sales of the particular type of item by the first entity through a second channel.

Claims

1. A method for estimating sales of a type of item by a first entity through a first commercial channel versus sales of the item by the first entity through a second commercial channel, comprising:

estimating a particular point of time corresponding to when the first entity initially began selling the type of item through the first commercial channel, wherein estimating the particular point of time includes;

determining a plurality of monetary values associated with sales of the type of item through all available commercial channels by the first entity, each of the plurality of monetary values representing sales of the type of item during one of a plurality of consecutive periods of time,

comparing differences between the plurality of monetary values,

based on the comparison of the differences between the plurality of monetary values, selecting one of the plurality of consecutive periods of time, and

estimating that the particular point of time corresponding to when the first entity initially sold the type of item through the first commercial channel occurred during the selected one of the plurality of consecutive periods of time,

selecting a second entity which sells the type of item, wherein each sale of the type of item by the second entity is through the second commercial channel;

comparing, using a processing system, data associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time with data associated with sales of the type of item by the second entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time to determine an adjustment factor;

altering data associated with sales of the type of item by the second entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time based on the adjustment factor to obtain altered sales data; and

comparing data associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time with the altered sales data to obtain an estimation of sales of the type of item by the first entity through the first commercial channel.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein estimating the particular point of time includes:

determining a first monetary value associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity during a first predetermined period of time;

determining a second monetary value associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity during a second predetermined period of time, wherein the second predetermined period of time occurred after the first predetermined period of time;

determining a third monetary value associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity during a third predetermined period of time, wherein the third predetermined period of time occurred after the second predetermined period of time;

calculating a first percentage, wherein the first percentage equals {[(B−

A)/A]*100%}, where A is the first monetary value and B is the second monetary value;

calculating a second percentage, wherein the second percentage equals {[(C−

B)/B]*100%}, where B is the second monetary value and C is the third monetary value;

selecting the first predetermined period time and the second predetermined period of time when the first percentage is greater than or equal to a particular predetermined percentage; and

selecting the second predetermined period time and the third predetermined period of time when;

the first percentage is less than the particular predetermined percentage; and

the second percentage is greater than or equal to the particular predetermined percentage.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein selecting the first predetermined period time and the second predetermined period of time includes:

determining a fourth monetary value associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity during a first portion of the first predetermined period of time;

determining a fifth monetary value associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity during a second portion of the first predetermined period of time, wherein the second portion of the first predetermined period of time occurred after the first portion of the first predetermined period of time;

determining a sixth monetary value associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity during a first portion of the second predetermined period of time;

determining a seventh monetary value associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity during a second portion of the second predetermined period of time, wherein the second portion of the second predetermined period of time occurred after the first portion of the second predetermined period of time;

calculating a third percentage, wherein the third percentage equals {[(E−

D)/E]*100%}, where D is the fourth monetary value and E is the fifth monetary value;

calculating a fourth percentage, wherein the fourth percentage equals {[(F−

E)/F]*100%}, where E is the fifth monetary value and F is the sixth monetary value;

calculating a fifth percentage, wherein the fifth percentage equals {[(G−

F)/G]*100%}, where G is the sixth monetary value and F is the seventh monetary value;

selecting the second portion of the first predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when the third percentage is greater than or equal to a further predetermined percentage;

selecting the first portion of the second predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when;

the third percentage is less than the further predetermined percentage; and

the fourth percentage is greater than or equal to the further predetermined percentage; and

selecting the second portion of the second predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when;

each of the third and fourth percentages is less than the further predetermined percentage; and

the fifth percentage is greater than or equal to the further predetermined percentage.

4. The method of claim 3, further comprising selecting the first portion of the second predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when each of the third, fourth, and fifth percentages is less than the further predetermined percentage.

5. The method of claim 3, wherein the particular predetermined percentage is 15%, and the further predetermined percentage is about 30%.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the adjustment factor equals (H/I), where H corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the type of item by the first entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time, and I corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the type of item by the second entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the altered sales data equals (J*K), where J corresponds to the sales of the type of item by the second entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time, and K is the adjustment factor.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the estimation of sales of the type of item by the first entity through the first commercial channel equals (L−

M), where L corresponds to the sales of the type of item by the first entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time, and M is the altered sales data.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the first commercial channel corresponds to internet sales, the second commercial channel corresponds to non-internet sales, and the first entity is a store which initially purchased the type of item from a pharmaceutical company.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the first commercial channel corresponds to sales of the type of item to residents of a first country, and the second commercial channel corresponds to sales of the type of item to residents of a second country.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the first commercial channel is the Internet, and the second entity does not sell the type of item through the Internet.

12. A system for estimating sales of a type of item by a first entity through a first commercial channel versus sales of the type of item by the first entity through a commercial second channel, wherein the system comprises:

a storage device for storing information associated with sales of the type of item; and

a processor coupled to the storage device, wherein the processor is operable to;

estimate a particular point of time corresponding to when the first entity initially began selling the type of item through the first commercial channel, wherein the processor is operable to estimate the particular point of time by;

determining a plurality of monetary values associated with sales of the type of item through all available commercial channels by the first entity, each of the plurality of monetary values representing sales of the type of item during one of a plurality of consecutive periods of time,

comparing differences between the plurality of monetary values,

based on the comparison of the differences between the plurality of monetary values, selecting one of the plurality of consecutive periods of time, and

estimating that the particular point of time corresponding to when the first entity initially sold the type of item through the first commercial channel occurred during the selected one of the plurality of consecutive periods of time,

select a second entity which sells the type of item, wherein each sale of the type of item by the second entity is through the second commercial channel;

compare, using a processing system, data associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time with data associated with sales of the type of item by the second entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time to determine an adjustment factor;

alter data associated with sales of the type of item by the second entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time based on the adjustment factor to obtain altered sales data; and

compare data associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time with the altered sales data to obtain an estimation of sales of the type of item by the first entity through the first commercial channel.

13. The system of claim 12, wherein the adjustment factor equals (H/I), where H corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the type of item by the first entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time, and I corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the type of item by the second entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the altered sales data equals (J*K), where J corresponds to the sales of the type of item by the second entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time, and K is the adjustment factor.

15. The system of claim 14, wherein the estimation of sales of the type of item by the first entity through the first commercial channel equals (L−

M), where L corresponds to the sales of the type of item by the first entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time, and M is the altered sales data.

16. The system of claim 12, wherein the first commercial channel corresponds to internet sales, and the second commercial channel corresponds to non-internet sales.

17. A storage device having a software arrangement stored thereon, that when executed, causes a processing system to perform operations comprising:

estimating a particular point of time corresponding to when the first entity initially began selling the type of item through the first commercial channel, wherein estimating the particular point of time includes;

determining a plurality of monetary values associated with sales of the type of item through all available commercial channels by the first entity, each of the plurality of monetary values representing sales of the type of item during one of a plurality of consecutive periods of time,

comparing differences between the plurality of monetary values,

based on the comparison of the differences between the plurality of monetary values, selecting one of the plurality of consecutive periods of time, and

estimating that the particular point of time corresponding to when the first entity initially sold the type of item through the first commercial channel occurred during the selected one of the plurality of consecutive periods of time,

selecting a second entity which sells the type of item, wherein each sale of the type of item by the second entity is through the second commercial channel;

comparing, using a processing system, data associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time with data associated with sales of the type of item by the second entity before the occurrence of the particular point of time to determine an adjustment factor;

altering data associated with sales of the type of item by the second entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time based on the adjustment factor to obtain altered sales data; and

comparing data associated with sales of the type of item by the first entity after the occurrence of the particular point of time with the altered sales data to obtain an estimation of sales of the type of item by the first entity through the first commercial channel.