System and method for the analysis of pricing data including a sustainable price range for vehicles and other commodities

• US 8,458,012 B2
• Filed: 10/01/2010
• Issued: 06/04/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 10/02/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Original Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Inventors: Swinson, Michael, Painter, Scott
• Primary Examiner(s): Choi, Peter
• Assistant Examiner(s): WALKER III, GEORGE H
• Application Number:
  US12/896,164
• Publication Number:
  US 20110082720A1
• Time in Patent Office: 977 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.35
• US Class Current: 705/7.35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors

Abstract

Embodiments disclosed herein can produce and present sustainable price information to help dealers to price vehicles for sustainability and facilitate consumers in making purchase decisions. In one approach, a sustainable price range for a specific vehicle configuration may be based on an average profit margin (APM) determined utilizing historical sale prices and an estimated actual dealer cost. Other approaches may utilize some or all of the following steps: determine APM and build a model of distribution of profit margins by APM, build a model to adjust APM by certain variables, identify sustainable levels for the inventory, production, and incentives variables feeding into the APM model, plug those in to get the averages for those sustainable levels, identify sustainable percentile cutoffs for a given profit margin, then use this relationship with the now identified sustainable levels as inputs to find the overall sustainable profit margin.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

at a vehicle data system running on one or more server machines;

obtaining historical data associated with a plurality of vehicle configurations, wherein the historical data includes historical transactions involving the plurality of vehicle configurations;

determining historical profit margins for a specific vehicle configuration using transaction prices associated with historical transactions for the specific vehicle configuration and cost information associated with the specific vehicle configuration, the specific vehicle configuration being communicated from a client device connected to the vehicle data system, wherein the specific vehicle configuration comprises values for a set of configuration attributes of a vehicle;

determining an average profit margin for historical transactions of the specific vehicle configuration using the historical profit margins;

adjusting the average profit margin to account for a plurality of variables at a particular time period in a market, wherein the plurality of variables includes market condition variables;

determining historical sustainable levels for each of the plurality of variables;

determining sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration utilizing the historical sustainable levels for the plurality of variables, wherein the sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration comprises a sustainable price for the specific vehicle configuration or a sustainable price range for the specific vehicle configuration, wherein the sustainable price or the sustainable price range represents a price for the vehicle in the market at the particular time period which a dealer can maintain over time while earning at least a user-specified return-on-investment and wherein the sustainable price or sustainable price range is determined by one of;

using the adjusted average profit margin with the dealer'"'"'s cost, or

applying user-defined criteria to a Gaussian distribution of the historical adjusted average profit margins to determine a sustainable profit margin or a range of sustainable profit margins and using those profit margins with the dealer'"'"'s cost;

generating an interface to present the sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration on the client device; and

guiding a user with respect to timing a purchase of the vehicle or with respect to pricing the vehicle for sustainability based on the sustainable price information.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of variables comprises incentives, inventory levels, production levels, and sales volumes.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the inventory levels are associated with vehicles having configurations similar to the specific vehicle configuration and wherein the sales volumes are projected sales volumes associated with the specific vehicle configuration.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the historical sustainable levels are determined by:

identifying a distribution of historical levels of each of the plurality of variables;

isolating a sustainable range from the distribution, wherein the sustainable range has a low sustainability value and a high sustainability value;

utilizing low sustainability values and high sustainability values associated with the plurality of variables to determine a minimum value and a maximum value for the average profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration; and

utilizing the minimum value and the maximum value for the average profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration to determine the historical sustainable levels.

5. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

determining an overall sustainable profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration utilizing the historical sustainable levels associated with the specific vehicle configuration.

6. The method according to claim 5, further comprising:

for each of the historical sustainable levels, identifying sustainable percentile cutoffs, wherein the sustainable price range is defined by the sustainable percentile cutoffs.

7. A computer program product comprising at least one non-transitory computer readable medium storing instructions translatable by at least one processor of a vehicle data system running on one or more server machines to perform:

determining historical profit margins for a specific vehicle configuration using transaction prices associated with historical transactions for the specific vehicle configuration and cost information associated with the specific vehicle configuration, the specific vehicle configuration being communicated from a client device connected to the vehicle data system, wherein the specific vehicle configuration comprises values for a set of configuration attributes of a vehicle;

determining an average profit margin for historical transactions of the specific vehicle configuration using the historical profit margins;

adjusting the average profit margin to account for a plurality of variables at a particular time period in a market, wherein the plurality of variables includes market condition variables;

determining historical sustainable levels for each of the plurality of variables;

determining sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration utilizing the historical sustainable levels for the plurality of variables, wherein the sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration comprises a sustainable price for the specific vehicle configuration or a sustainable price range for the specific vehicle configuration, wherein the sustainable price or the sustainable price range represents of a price for the vehicle in the market at the particular time period which a dealer can maintain over time while earning at least a user-specified return-on-investment and wherein the sustainable price or sustainable price range is determined by one of;

using the adjusted average profit margin with the dealer'"'"'s cost, or

applying user-defined criteria to a Gaussian distribution of the historical adjusted average profit margins to determine a sustainable profit margin or a range of sustainable profit margins and using those profit margins with the dealer'"'"'s cost;

generating an interface to present the sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration on the client device; and

guiding a user with respect to timing a purchase of the vehicle or with respect to pricing the vehicle for sustainability based on the sustainable price information.

8. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the plurality of variables comprises incentives, inventory levels, production levels, and sales volumes.

9. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the inventory levels are associated with vehicles having configurations similar to the specific vehicle configuration and wherein the sales volumes are projected sales volumes associated with the specific vehicle configuration.

10. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the historical sustainable levels are determined by:

identifying a distribution of historical levels of each of the plurality of variables;

isolating a sustainable range from the distribution, wherein the sustainable range has a low sustainability value and a high sustainability value;

utilizing low sustainability values and high sustainability values associated with the plurality of variables to determine a minimum value and a maximum value for the average profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration; and

utilizing the minimum value and the maximum value for the average profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration to determine the historical sustainable levels.

11. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

determining an overall sustainable profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration utilizing the historical sustainable levels associated with the specific vehicle configuration.

12. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

for each of the historical sustainable levels, identifying sustainable percentile cutoffs, wherein the sustainable price range is defined by the sustainable percentile cutoffs.

13. A system, comprising:

one or more computing devices; and

a vehicle data system connected to the one or more computing devices over a network, the vehicle data system comprising a processing module, wherein the processing module is configured to;

obtain historical data associated with a plurality of vehicle configurations, wherein the historical data includes historical transactions involving the plurality of vehicle configurations;

determine historical profit margins for a specific vehicle configuration using transaction prices associated with historical transactions for the specific vehicle configuration and cost information associated with the specific vehicle configuration, the specific vehicle configuration being communicated from a client device, the client device being one of the one or more computing devices connected to the vehicle data system, wherein the specific vehicle configuration comprises values for a set of configuration attributes of a vehicle;

determine an average profit margin for historical transactions of the specific vehicle configuration using the historical profit margins;

adjust the average profit margin to account for a plurality of variables at a particular time period in a market, wherein the plurality of variables includes market condition variables;

determine historical sustainable levels for each of the plurality of variables;

determine sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration utilizing the historical sustainable levels for the plurality of variables, wherein the sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration comprises a sustainable price for the specific vehicle configuration or a sustainable price range for the specific vehicle configuration, wherein the sustainable price or the sustainable price range represents a price for the vehicle in the market at the particular time period which a dealer can maintain over time while earning at least a user-specified return-on-investment and wherein the sustainable price or sustainable price range is determined by one of;

using the adjusted average profit margin with the dealer'"'"'s cost, or

applying user-defined criteria to a Gaussian distribution of the historical adjusted average profit margins to determine a sustainable profit margin or a range of sustainable profit margins and using those profit margins with the dealer'"'"'s cost

generate an interface to present the sustainable price information for the specific vehicle configuration on the client device; and

guide a user with respect to timing a purchase of the vehicle or with respect to pricing the vehicle for sustainability based on the sustainable price information.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the plurality of variables comprises incentives, inventory levels, production levels, and sales volumes.

15. The system of claim 14, wherein the inventory levels are associated with vehicles having configurations similar to the specific vehicle configuration and wherein the sales volumes are projected sales volumes associated with the specific vehicle configuration.

16. The system of claim 13, wherein the processing module determines the historical sustainable levels by:

identifying a distribution of historical levels of each of the plurality of variables;

isolating a sustainable range from the distribution, wherein the sustainable range has a low sustainability value and a high sustainability value;

utilizing low sustainability values and high sustainability values associated with the plurality of variables to determine a minimum value and a maximum value for the average profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration; and

utilizing the minimum value and the maximum value for the average profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration to determine the historical sustainable levels.

17. The system of claim 13, wherein the processing module is further configured to:

determine an overall sustainable profit margin for the specific vehicle configuration utilizing the historical sustainable levels associated with the specific vehicle configuration.

18. The system of claim 17, wherein the processing module is further configured to:

for each of the historical sustainable levels, identify sustainable percentile cutoffs, wherein the sustainable price range is defined by the sustainable percentile cutoffs.