Scheduling a process according to time-varying input prices
First Claim
1. A method carried out by a computer system including a physical computer-readable medium including computer-executable instructions for deciding whether to run a process to take advantage of time varying input commodity prices in order to reduce expenditures based on an actual price of an input commodity to the process while achieving an actual output amount at least as great as a target output amount, the actual output amount based, at least in part, on an amount of time that the process runs, the computer-executable instructions comprising:
- determining a prediction time period for the process to run based on the target output amount;
determining a first portion of the prediction time period during which the input commodity is available for the process to run in order to achieve the target output amount;
determining a plurality of input commodity prices available for the process to run during the first portion of the prediction time period;
calculating a fractional rank for each of the input prices during the first portion of the prediction time period;
selecting an actual price of the input commodity based on a selected fractional rank if the process is run in a present time frame;
predicting a second portion of the prediction time period during which the price for the input commodity will be less than the selected actual price of the input commodity in the present time frame;
comparing the predicted second portion of the prediction time period with the determined first portion of the prediction time period; and
deciding to run the process in response to the predicted second portion of the prediction time period being less than the determined first portion of the prediction time period.
2 Assignments
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
Disclosed are methods for scheduling when to run a process to take advantage of time-varying input prices by predicting the “rank” of the current actual input price among future input prices. The rank is that portion of a future time period during which the input price will be less than the current actual input price. An “operational cutoff” is set based on the portion of time during which a process should run in order to produce a target output amount. Periodically, the actual input price is determined, and its rank is predicted. The predicted rank is then compared with the operational cutoff. If the predicted rank is below the cutoff, then it makes economic sense to run the process. Otherwise, it would be cheaper not to run the process at present but to wait a while in expectation that the input price will drop.
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Citations
26 Claims
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1. A method carried out by a computer system including a physical computer-readable medium including computer-executable instructions for deciding whether to run a process to take advantage of time varying input commodity prices in order to reduce expenditures based on an actual price of an input commodity to the process while achieving an actual output amount at least as great as a target output amount, the actual output amount based, at least in part, on an amount of time that the process runs, the computer-executable instructions comprising:
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determining a prediction time period for the process to run based on the target output amount; determining a first portion of the prediction time period during which the input commodity is available for the process to run in order to achieve the target output amount; determining a plurality of input commodity prices available for the process to run during the first portion of the prediction time period; calculating a fractional rank for each of the input prices during the first portion of the prediction time period; selecting an actual price of the input commodity based on a selected fractional rank if the process is run in a present time frame; predicting a second portion of the prediction time period during which the price for the input commodity will be less than the selected actual price of the input commodity in the present time frame; comparing the predicted second portion of the prediction time period with the determined first portion of the prediction time period; and deciding to run the process in response to the predicted second portion of the prediction time period being less than the determined first portion of the prediction time period. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A non-transitory physical computer-readable medium containing instructions for performing a method for deciding whether to run a process in order to reduce expenditures on an input to the process while achieving an actual output amount at least as great as target output amount, a price of the input varying through time, the actual output amount based, at least in part, on an amount of time that the process runs, the method comprising:
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determining a prediction time period for the process to run based on the target output amount to be produced; determining a first portion of the prediction time period during which the process should run in order to achieve the target output amount; calculating a fractional rank for each of the input prices during the first portion; determining an actual price of the input based on a selected fractional rank if the process is run in a present time frame; predicting a second portion of the prediction time period during which the input price will be less than the determined actual price of the input in the present time frame; comparing the predicted second portion of the prediction time period is less than the determined first portion of the prediction time period, then deciding to run the process in the present time frame. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24)
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25. A method carried out by a computer system including a physical computer-readable medium including computer-executable instructions for deciding to run a process in order to reduce expenditures on an input to the process while achieving an actual output amount at least as great as a target output amount, a price of the input varying through time, the actual output amount based, at least in part, on an amount of time that the process runs, the method comprising the computer-executed steps of:
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determining a first amount of time within a prediction period during which the process should run in order to achieve the target output amount; determining a plurality of input commodity prices available for the process to run during the first amount of time; calculating a fractional rank for each of the input prices during the first amount of time; selecting an actual price of the input based on a selected fractional rank if the process is run in a present time frame; predicting a second amount of time of the prediction period during which the price of the input will be less than the selected actual price of the input in the present time frame; comparing the predicted second amount of time within the prediction period with the determined first amount of time; and if the predicted second amount of time within the prediction period is less than the determined first amount of time within the prediction period, then deciding to run the process in the present time frame.
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26. A non-transitory physical computer-readable medium containing instructions for performing a method for deciding to run a process in order to reduce expenditures on an input to the process while achieving an actual output amount at least as great as a target output amount, a price of the input varying through time, the actual output amount based, at least in part, on an amount of time that the process runs, the method comprising:
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determining a first amount of time within a prediction period during which the process should run in order to achieve the target output amount; determining a plurality of input commodity prices available for the process to run during the first amount of time; calculating a fractional rank for each of the input prices during the first amount of time; selecting an actual price of the input based on a selected fractional rank if the process is run in the present time frame; predicting a second amount of time of the prediction period during which the input price will be less than the selected actual price of the input in the present time frame; comparing the predicted second amount of time within the prediction period with the determined first amount of time; and if the predicted second amount of time within the prediction period is less than the determined first amount of time within the prediction period, then deciding to run the process in the present time frame.
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Specification