Predictive drop shipping

• US 8,473,425 B1
• Filed: 06/20/2011
• Issued: 06/25/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 06/20/2011
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Inventors: Maurer, Jeffrey B., Murray, Jason W., Mishra, Devesh, Mack, Eric
• Primary Examiner(s): FLYNN, KEVIN H
• Application Number:
  US13/164,559
• Time in Patent Office: 736 Days
• Field of Search: 705/336, 705/338, 705/341, 705/14.42, 705/14.45
• US Class Current: 705/336
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/083 Shipping

Abstract

Systems and methods for predictive drop shipping are disclosed. In some embodiments, a method may include maintaining inventory of an item that is offered for sale to customers via a webpage. A ratio may be calculated between a number of views of the webpage and a number of units of the item purchased over a first time period when a fast shipping or delivery option is available, and over a second time period when such option is not available. The method may identify the item as a candidate for drop shipping in response to the ratio being larger during the first time period than during the second time period. Upon receipt of an order, the received order may be fulfilled via drop shipping, in some cases, despite the inventory being sufficient to fulfill the order, and despite a cost of fulfillment via drop shipping being higher than fulfillment from inventory.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

performing, by one or more computer systems,

maintaining a record of an inventory of an item, wherein the item is offered for sale to customers via a web page;

calculating a ratio between a number of views of the web page and a number of units of the item purchased over a first time period when a fast shipping or delivery option is available and over a second time period when the fast shipping or delivery option is not available, wherein the fast shipping or delivery option is not drop shipping fulfillment;

identifying the item as a candidate for drop shipping fulfillment in response to the ratio being larger during the first time period than during the second time period;

receiving an order for the item; and

indicating that the received order be fulfilled with drop shipping, wherein the inventory is sufficient to fulfill the received order, and wherein a cost of fulfillment through drop shipping is higher than a cost of fulfillment from the inventory.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising, prior to calculating the ratio, determining that the inventory is insufficient to fulfill future orders of the item based, at least in part, upon a demand forecast for the item.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the fast shipping or delivery option includes a same-day delivery or a next-day delivery.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein identifying the item as a candidate for drop shipping fulfillment includes determining that a difference between the ratio during the first time period and the ratio during the second time period is larger than a threshold.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the received order does not select the fast shipping or delivery option.

6. A system, comprising:

at least one processor; and

a memory coupled to the at least one processor, wherein the memory stores program instructions, and wherein the program instructions are executable by the at least one processor to;

calculate a conversion rate for a product offered for sale by a merchant over a first period when a fast shipping or delivery option is available and over a second period when the fast shipping or delivery option is not available, wherein the fast shipping or delivery option is not fulfillment by a third party; and

identify the product as a candidate for fulfillment by a third party in response to the conversion rate being larger over the first period than over the second period.

7. The system of claim 6, wherein the conversion rate is based, at least in part, upon a ratio between a number of completed purchases of the product over a number of customer views of the product.

8. The system of claim 7, wherein the number of customer views includes a number of accesses to a web page displaying the product for sale.

9. The system of claim 6, wherein the fast shipping or delivery option includes a same-day delivery or a next-day delivery.

10. The system of claim 6, wherein the program instructions are further executable by the at least one processor to:

receive an order for the product, wherein an inventory of the merchant is sufficient to fulfill the received order; and

cause fulfillment of the received order by the third-party.

11. The system of claim 6, wherein a cost of fulfillment by the third-party is higher than a cost of fulfillment from the inventory.