System and method of determining a retail commodity price within a geographic boundary

• US 8,538,795 B2
• Filed: 02/12/2008
• Issued: 09/17/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 02/12/2007
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Pricelock, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Pricelock, Inc.
• Inventors: Fell, Robert M., Painter, Scott, Bonsignore, Michael R., Reed, Brian P., Magnuson, Gary A.
• Primary Examiner(s): Erb, Nathan
• Application Number:
  US12/030,119
• Publication Number:
  US 20080313014A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,044 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.35
• US Class Current: 705/7.35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply

Abstract

Disclosed are a method and system for determining a retail price for a commodity within a geographic boundary. Retail prices for the commodity may be obtained from various sources, such as observers, third-party reporting, transactional data, and self-reporting. The retail price for each source may be analyzed to determine a risk factor. The retail prices from all sources associated with a location may be compared to determine a composite retail price for the location. The retail prices for all the locations within the geographic boundary may be analyzed to generate an aggregate composite price for the commodity within the geographic boundary. The analysis may include using a weighted formula. The analysis may include a volume proxy.

Claims

1. A method for calculating a retail commodity price within a geographic boundary, comprising:

obtaining from one or more observation sources communicatively connected to a computer system on a network, observed retail prices (OP) on a commodity at each location of a plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more third-party price-reporting sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, third-party reported retail prices (3PRP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more transaction sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, transaction prices (TP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more self-reporting sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, self-reported prices (SRP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the OP to determine an analyzed OP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the OP comprises at least one of selecting a price based on recency, determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, checking a price for data entry errors, determining if a price falls within a particular time frame, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the 3PRP to determine an analyzed 3PRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the 3PRP comprises at least one of determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, determining if a price falls within a particular time frame, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the TP to determine an analyzed TP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the TP comprises at least one of determining if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, selecting a price based on recency, determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the SRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the SRP comprises at least one of determining if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, determining if a company is fully reporting the prices at its locations, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

determining, by the computer system on the network, a confidence factor for each of the analyzed OP, the analyzed 3PRP, the analyzed TP, and the analyzed SRP for the each location, wherein the confidence factor is based on one or more of;

frequency of price reporting, volume of price reporting, stations identified with possible product coding errors, historical price volatility, current motor fuel price trends, if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, the amount of time in business of a location, traffic near a location, volume of a transaction at a location, number of competitors within a specified distance of a location, whether a location is independent or a franchise, geographic location of a location, services available at a location, the presence of car wash facilities at a location, the presence of full service operations at a location, businesses nearby a location, restaurants near a location, and/or shopping centers near a location;

generating, by the computer system on the network on a location-by-location basis, a composite retail price for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary based on the analyzed OP, the analyzed 3PRP, the analyzed TP, the analyzed SRP, and all of their corresponding confidence factors; and

generating, by the computer system on the network, an aggregate composite retail price of the commodity for the geographic boundary based on the composite retail price for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP obtained by the computer system fall within a particular time frame.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the analyzing the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP comprises determining if one or more of the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary fall within a price tolerance.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising adding a risk premium to the composite retail price for the commodity at a particular location to compensate for a risk associated with the particular location within the geographic boundary.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the aggregate composite retail price of the commodity for within the geographic boundary is determined based on [a sum of (individual composite retail prices times corresponding individual sales volumes of the commodity at individual locations)] divided by a total sales volume of the commodity within the geographic boundary.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the corresponding individual sales volume of the commodity at an individual location is calculated by performing the steps of:

determining a storage capacity for the individual location;

determining a refuel rate for the individual location; and

dividing the storage capacity for the individual location by the refuel rate for the individual location.

7. A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing program instructions executable by a computer system to perform the steps comprising:

obtaining from one or more observation sources communicatively connected to the computer system on a network, observed retail prices (OP) on a commodity at each location of a plurality of locations within a geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more third-party price-reporting sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, third-party reported retail prices (3PRP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more transaction sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, transaction prices (TP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more self-reporting sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, self-reported prices (SRP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the OP to determine an analyzed OP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the OP comprises at least one of selecting a price based on recency, determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, checking a price for data entry errors, determining if a price falls within a particular time frame, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the 3PRP to determine an analyzed 3PRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the 3PRP comprises at least one of determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, determining if a price falls within a particular time frame, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the TP to determine an analyzed TP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the TP comprises at least one of determining if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, selecting a price based on recency, determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the SRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the SRP comprises at least one of determining if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, determining if a company is fully reporting the prices at its locations, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

determining, by the computer system on the network, a confidence factor for each of the analyzed OP, the analyzed 3PRP, the analyzed TP, and the analyzed SRP for the each location, wherein the confidence factor is based on one or more of;

frequency of price reporting, volume of price reporting, stations identified with possible product coding errors, historical price volatility, current motor fuel price trends, if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, the amount of time in business of a location, traffic near a location, volume of a transaction at a location, number of competitors within a specified distance of a location, whether a location is independent or a franchise, geographic location of a location, services available at a location, the presence of car wash facilities at a location, the presence of full service operations at a location, businesses nearby a location, restaurants near a location, and/or shopping centers near a location;

generating, by the computer system on the network on a location-by-location basis, a composite retail price for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary based on the analyzed OP, the analyzed 3PRP, the analyzed TP, the analyzed SRP, and all of their corresponding confidence factors; and

generating, by the computer system on the network, an aggregate composite retail price of the commodity for the geographic boundary based on the composite retail price for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary.

8. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 7, wherein the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP obtained by the computer system fall within a particular time frame.

9. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 7, wherein the analyzing the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP comprises determining if one or more of the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary fall within a price tolerance.

10. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 7, wherein the program instructions are executable by the computer system to perform:

adding a risk premium to the composite retail price for the commodity at a particular location to compensate for a risk associated with the particular location within the geographic boundary.

11. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 7, wherein the aggregate composite retail price of the commodity for within the geographic boundary is determined based on [a sum of (individual composite retail prices times corresponding individual sales volumes of the commodity at individual locations)] divided by a total sales volume of the commodity within the geographic boundary.

12. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11, wherein the program instructions are executable by the computer system to perform:

determining a storage capacity for a location within the geographic boundary;

determining a refuel rate for the location; and

dividing the storage capacity for the location by the refuel rate for the location to determine a volume proxy for the location.

13. A computer system comprising:

a processor; and

a computer-readable medium storing program instructions executable by the computer system to perform the steps comprising;

obtaining from one or more observation sources communicatively connected to the computer system on a network, observed retail prices (OP) on a commodity at each location of a plurality of locations within a geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more third-party price-reporting sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, third-party reported retail prices (3PRP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more transaction sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, transaction prices (TP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

obtaining from one or more self-reporting sources communicatively connected to the computer system on the network, self-reported prices (SRP) on the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the OP to determine an analyzed OP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the OP comprises at least one of selecting a price based on recency, determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, checking a price for data entry errors, determining if a price falls within a particular time frame, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the 3PRP to determine an analyzed 3PRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the 3PRP comprises at least one of determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, determining if a price falls within a particular time frame, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the TP to determine an analyzed TP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the TP comprises at least one of determining if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, selecting a price based on recency, determining if a price falls within a price tolerance, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

analyzing, by the computer system on the network, the SRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary, wherein the analyzing the SRP comprises at least one of determining if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, determining if a company is fully reporting the prices at its locations, determining if a price is an outlier data value, and/or checking the consistency of a price with a price from another data source;

determining, by the computer system on the network, a confidence factor for each of the analyzed OP, the analyzed 3PRP, the analyzed TP, and the analyzed SRP for the each location, wherein the confidence factor is based on one or more of;

frequency of price reporting, volume of price reporting, stations identified with possible product coding errors, historical price volatility, current motor fuel price trends, if a price is representative of the regular price for a location, the amount of time in business of a location, traffic near a location, volume of a transaction at a location, number of competitors within a specified distance of a location, whether a location is independent or a franchise, geographic location of a location, services available at a location, the presence of car wash facilities at a location, the presence of full service operations at a location, businesses nearby a location, restaurants near a location, and/or shopping centers near a location;

generating, by the computer system on the network on a location-by-location basis, a composite retail price for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary based on the analyzed OP, the analyzed 3PRP, the analyzed TP, the analyzed SRP, and all of their corresponding confidence factors; and

generating, by the computer system on the network, an aggregate composite retail price of the commodity for the geographic boundary based on the composite retail price for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP obtained by the computer system fall within a particular time frame.

15. The system of claim 13, wherein the analyzing the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP comprises determining if one or more of the OP, 3PRP, TP, and SRP for the commodity at the each location of the plurality of locations within the geographic boundary fall within a specified price tolerance.

16. The system of claim 13, wherein the program instructions are executable by the processor to perform:

adding a risk premium to the composite retail price for the commodity at a particular location to compensate for a risk associated with the particular location within the geographic boundary.

17. The system of claim 13, wherein the aggregate composite retail price of the commodity for within the geographic boundary is determined based on [a sum of (individual composite retail prices times corresponding individual sales volumes of the commodity at individual locations)] divided by a total sales volume of the commodity within the geographic boundary.

18. The system of claim 17, wherein the program instructions are executable by the processor to perform:

determining a storage capacity for a location within the geographic boundary;

determining a refuel rate for the location; and

dividing the storage capacity for the location by the refuel rate for the location.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein a result from the dividing the storage capacity for the location by the refuel rate for the location is used as a volume proxy for the location.