Performing predictive pricing based on historical data

• US 8,566,143 B2
• Filed: 04/07/2011
• Issued: 10/22/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 03/27/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: Etzioni, Oren, Yates, Alexander, Knoblock, Craig A., Tuchinda, Rattapoom
• Primary Examiner(s): Hayes, John
• Assistant Examiner(s): NELSON, FREDA ANN
• Application Number:
  US13/082,362
• Publication Number:
  US 20110251917A1
• Time in Patent Office: 929 Days
• Field of Search: 705/1.1, 705/7.35, 705/14.69, 705/400, 705/5, 705/7.31, 705/26.1, 705/26.41
• US Class Current: 705/7.35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/02 Reservations, e.g. for tickets, services or events
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/201 Price look-up processing, e.g. updating
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0273 Determination of fees for advertising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0611 Request for offers or quotes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply

Abstract

Techniques are described for using predictive pricing information for items to assist in evaluating buying and/or selling decisions in various ways, such as on behalf of end-user item acquirers and/or intermediate item providers. The predictive pricing for an item may be based on an analysis of historical pricing information for that item and/or related items, and can be used to make predictions about future pricing information for the item. Such predictions may then be provided to users in various ways to enable comparison of current prices to predicted future prices. In some situations, predictive pricing information is used to assist customers when purchasing airline tickets and/or to assist travel agents when selling airline tickets. This abstract is provided to comply with rules requiring an abstract, and it is submitted with the intention that it will not be used to interpret or limit the scope or meaning of the claims.

Claims

1. A method performed by a computer for providing pricing information for items with use dates, the method comprising:

providing historical pricing information including offer prices at which a plurality of suppliers have offered to provide items with use dates;

receiving by the computer a request from a user for pricing information for a requested item with a requested use date;

for each of the plurality of suppliers of the requested item, obtaining by the computer from the supplier an offer to provide the requested item with the requested use date, each offer including a current offer price at which the supplier is offering to provide the requested item;

determining by the computer a prediction for a future direction of offer prices for the requested item based on the obtained offers and provided historical pricing information;

providing by the computer to the user an indication of a current offer price for the requested item and the prediction of the future direction of offer prices for the requested item;

receiving from the user an indication to accept the offer of a supplier to purchase the item; and

in response to receiving the indication to accept the offer, directing the item to be purchased from the supplier at the current offer prices of the supplier

wherein the computer predicts the future direction of offer prices for the requested item provided by the plurality of suppliers and provides that prediction to the user so that the user can decide whether to accept the offer from a supplier at the current offer price or defer accepting an offer based on the prediction of the future direction of the offer prices.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the use date is a date after which a value for requested item decreases.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein the prediction of future direction indicates whether the offer price is likely to increase or decrease.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the determining includes determining a prediction for each of the obtained offers and the providing provides the determined prediction for each offer.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein the requested item is not a physical item.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein the use date is a date after which a value for the requested item decreases, wherein the prediction of future direction indicates whether the offer price is likely to increase or decrease, and wherein the determining includes determining a prediction for each of the obtained offers and the providing provides the determined prediction for each offer.

7. The method of claim 6 wherein the requested item is not a physical item.

8. The method of claim 1 wherein the obtained offers includes offers for a substitute item.

9. The method of claim 1 wherein the requested item is an event and the use date is date of the event.

10. The method of claim 1 wherein the determining of the prediction for the future direction is based on factors that affect value of the requested item.

11. A computer system for providing pricing information for items with use dates, comprising:

a memory storing computer-executable instructions that include;

a component that accesses historical pricing information including offer prices at which a plurality of suppliers have offered to provide items with use dates;

a component that receives a request from a user for pricing information for a requested item with a requested use date;

a component that, for each of the plurality of suppliers of the requested item, obtains from the supplier an offer to provide the requested item with the requested use date, each offer including a current offer price at which the supplier is offering to provide the requested item;

a component that determines a prediction for a future direction of offer prices for the requested item based on the obtained offers and provided historical pricing information;

a component that provides to the user an indication of a current offer price for the requested item and the prediction of the future direction of offer prices for the requested item;

a component that receives from the user an indication to accept the offer of a supplier to purchase the item; and

a component that, in response to receiving the indication to accept the offer, directs the item to be purchased from the supplier at the current offer prices of the supplier; and

a processor that executes the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory whereby the computer system predicts the future direction of offer prices for the requested item provided by the plurality of suppliers and provides that prediction to the user so that the user can decide whether to accept the offer from a supplier at the current offer price or defer accepting an offer based on the prediction of the future direction of the offer prices.

12. The computer system of claim 11 wherein the use date is a date after which a value for requested item decreases.

13. The computer system of claim 11 including a component that determines a prediction for each of the obtained offers and provides the determined prediction for each offer.

14. The computer system of claim 11 wherein the requested item is an airline ticket.

15. The computer system of claim 11 wherein the use date is a date after which a value for the requested item decreases, wherein the prediction of future direction indicates whether the offer price is likely to increase or decrease, wherein the requested item is an airline ticket, and including a component that determines a prediction for each of the obtained offers and provides the determined prediction for each offer.