Strategies for determining the value of advertisements using randomized performance estimates
First Claim
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1. A computer-implemented method of forming a performance estimate for an advertisement, from which to compute the advertisement'"'"'s expected value, the method comprising:
- under control of one or more computer systems configured with executable instructions,receiving performance data associated with the advertisement;
forming a probability distribution of possible performance estimates based, at least in part, on the received performance data associated with the advertisement; and
randomly selecting the performance estimate from the probability distribution of possible performance estimates, such that the performance estimate includes a randomized component.
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Abstract
Strategies are described for conducting an advertising campaign using a cost-per-transaction (CPT) pricing model. In this model, the advertiser is charged when an end-user takes some express action in response to viewing the advertisement, such as by clicking on the advertisement, purchasing the advertised asset, performing a registration procedure, and so forth. Various solutions allow for the computation of the expected value of a CPT advertisement when there is a scarcity of data pertaining to the actual performance of the CPT advertisement.
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Citations
18 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method of forming a performance estimate for an advertisement, from which to compute the advertisement'"'"'s expected value, the method comprising:
under control of one or more computer systems configured with executable instructions, receiving performance data associated with the advertisement; forming a probability distribution of possible performance estimates based, at least in part, on the received performance data associated with the advertisement; and randomly selecting the performance estimate from the probability distribution of possible performance estimates, such that the performance estimate includes a randomized component. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
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8. A computer-implemented method of ranking advertisements, comprising:
under control of one or more computer systems configured with executable instructions, identifying an advertisement-triggering event; identifying a set of K candidate advertisements that have a bearing on at least one characteristic associated with the advertisement-triggering event; estimating the value of each of the set of K candidate advertisements; and selecting a subset of N advertisements from the set of K candidate advertisements based on the estimated value of the K candidate advertisements, wherein the estimating of the value of the K candidate advertisements comprises, for each advertisement of the set of K candidate advertisements; forming a probability distribution of possible performance estimates based on performance data of the advertisement; and randomly selecting a performance estimate from the probability distribution of possible performance estimates to use as the estimated value of the advertisement. - View Dependent Claims (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
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15. A system comprising:
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a memory and a processor; advertising management functionality stored in the memory and executable on the processor for evaluating the value of advertisements, comprising; logic configured to identify a set of K candidate advertisements that have a bearing on at least one characteristic associated with an advertisement-triggering event; logic configured to estimate the value of each of the set of K candidate advertisements; and logic configured to select a subset of N advertisements from the set of K candidate advertisements based on the estimated value of the K candidate advertisements, wherein the estimating of the value of the K candidate advertisements comprises, for each advertisement of the set of K candidate advertisements; forming a probability distribution of possible performance estimates based on performance data of the advertisement; and randomly selecting a performance estimate from the probability distribution of possible performance estimates to use as the estimated value of the advertisement; and publication functionality stored in the memory and executable on the processor for publishing the N candidate advertisements identified by the advertising management functionality. - View Dependent Claims (16, 17, 18)
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Specification