System and method for the analysis of pricing data including dealer costs for vehicles and other commodities

• US 8,577,736 B2
• Filed: 10/01/2010
• Issued: 11/05/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 10/02/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Original Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Inventors: Swinson, Michael, Painter, Scott, Cleckler, Damon, Inghelbrecht, Philip, Lichti, Christopher Carl, Taylor, Robert
• Primary Examiner(s): Smith, Jeffrey A
• Assistant Examiner(s): Civan, Ethan D
• Application Number:
  US12/896,122
• Publication Number:
  US 20110082759A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,131 Days
• Field of Search: 705 26- 272
• US Class Current: 705/26.1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0278 Product appraisal
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0601 Electronic shopping [e-shopping]

Abstract

The sale of a vehicle may involve many cost and profit components. It is generally impossible for a potential buyer to know all of these components. For example, dealers may be paid by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) on their Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) and volume bonus. Embodiments disclosed herein may determine and present to a user an accurate estimate of dealer cost, taking into consideration an aggregate of dealer cost components. For each component, a predictive model may be built to determine an expected value at a particular level. An average of the expected value of the component is then calculated for the most recent month. From that, an average bonus payout per vehicle for the most recent month may be determined. A base dealer cost is adjusted to account for these payouts to produce an accurate estimate of actual dealer cost.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

at a vehicle data system running on one or more server machines coupled to one or more computing devices over a network;

obtaining, from one or more data sources at a time interval by the vehicle data system running on the one or more server machines, data on a set of dealers, wherein the data comprises information on a payout program, a number of vehicles sold, and historical values associated with at least one dealer cost component, wherein the at least one dealer cost component comprises a Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI), and wherein the historical values comprise historical dealer CSI scores;

constructing, by the vehicle data system running on the one or more server machines, a predictive model to determine an expected CSI score at a particular level, wherein the predictive model comprises a regression analysis on the data including the historical dealer CSI scores;

determining, by the vehicle data system running on the one or more server machines utilizing the expected CSI score at the particular level, an expected average of the expected CSI score for a time period;

generating a market-share probability density function utilizing the historical dealer CSI scores;

determining, by the vehicle data system running on the one or more server machines utilizing the market-share probability density function and the expected average of the expected CSI score predicted for the time period, a probability of a transaction having a given CSI score;

determining, by the vehicle data system running on the one or more server machines utilizing the probability of the transaction having the given CSI score, an average CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the time period; and

producing, by the vehicle data system running on the one or more server machines, an actual dealer cost by adjusting a base dealer cost with the average CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the time period.

2. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

preparing a range of prices for a specific vehicle configuration utilizing the actual dealer cost.

3. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

applying the actual dealer cost to a vehicle selected by a user.

4. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining additional information on the set of dealers, wherein the additional information comprises internal sales forecast and current average profit margin.

5. The method according to claim 4, further comprising:

storing the data and the additional information in a central database accessible by the vehicle data system.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the generating the market-share probability density function further comprises:

taking the historical dealer CSI scores for each time interval of observations; and

weighting each of the historical dealer CSI scores by a volume of sales;

wherein the market-share probability density function is generated for each time interval to represent historical distributions over the observations.

14. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

determining a volume bonus payout per vehicle; and

adjusting the base dealer cost with the volume bonus payout per vehicle.

15. The method according to claim 14, wherein the volume bonus payout per vehicle is determined by:

constructing a predictive model to determine an expected sales percentage ratio at a particular level;

determining an expected average of the expected sales percentage ratio for a current time period; and

determining the volume bonus payout per vehicle for the current time period utilizing the expected average of the expected sales percentage ratio for the current time period.

16. The method according to claim 1, wherein the particular level represents a geographical level, a market level, or a volume level.

7. A computer program product comprising at least one non-transitory computer readable medium storing instructions translatable by at least one processor to perform:

obtaining data on a set of dealers from one or more data sources at a time interval, wherein the data comprises information on a payout program, a number of vehicles sold, and historical values associated with at least one dealer cost component, wherein the at least one dealer cost component comprises a Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI), and wherein the historical values comprise historical dealer CSI scores;

constructing a predictive model to determine an expected CSI score at a particular level, wherein the predictive model comprises a regression analysis on the data including the historical dealer CSI scores;

determining an expected average of the expected CSI score for a time period utilizing the expected CSI score at the particular level;

generating a market-share probability density function utilizing the historical dealer CSI scores;

determining a probability of a transaction having a given CSI score utilizing the market-share probability density function and the expected average of the expected CSI score predicted for the time period;

determining an average CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the time period utilizing the probability of the transaction having the given CSI score; and

producing an actual dealer cost by adjusting a base dealer cost with the average CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the time period.

8. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

preparing a range of prices for a specific vehicle configuration utilizing the actual dealer cost.

9. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

applying the actual dealer cost to a vehicle selected by a user.

10. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

taking the historical dealer CSI scores for each time interval of observations; and

weighting each of the historical dealer CSI scores by a volume of sales;

wherein the market-share probability density function is generated for each time interval to represent historical distributions over the observations.

11. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

determining a volume bonus payout per vehicle; and

adjusting the base dealer cost with the volume bonus payout per vehicle.

12. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the volume bonus payout per vehicle is determined by:

constructing a predictive model to determine an expected sales percentage ratio at a particular level;

determining an expected average of the expected sales percentage ratio for a current time period; and

determining the volume bonus payout per vehicle for the current time period utilizing the expected average of the expected sales percentage ratio for the current time period.

13. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the particular level represents a geographical level, a market level, or a volume level.

17. A system, comprising:

one or more computing devices; and

a vehicle data system running on one or more server machines coupled to the one or more computing devices over a network, the vehicle data system comprising;

a processing module, the processing module being configured to produce an actual dealer cost by adjusting a base dealer cost with a Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) bonus payout per vehicle for a time period;

wherein determining the CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the time period comprises;

constructing a predictive model to determine an expected CSI score at a particular level, wherein the predictive model comprises a regression analysis on historical dealer CSI scores obtained from one or more data sources;

determining an expected average of the expected CSI score for the time period utilizing the expected CSI score at the particular level;

generating a market-share probability density function utilizing the historical dealer CSI scores;

determining a probability of a transaction having a given CSI score utilizing the market-share probability density function and the expected average of the expected CSI score predicted for the time period; and

determining the CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the time period utilizing the probability of the transaction having the given CSI score.

18. The system of claim 17, wherein the processing module is further configured to:

obtain data on a set of dealers, wherein the data comprises information on a payout program, a number of vehicles sold, and the historical dealer CSI scores.

19. The system of claim 17, wherein the processing module is further configured to determine a volume bonus payout per vehicle and adjust the base dealer cost with the volume bonus payout per vehicle.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein the volume bonus payout per vehicle is determined by:

constructing a predictive model to determine an expected sales percentage ratio at a particular level;

determining an expected average of the expected sales percentage ratio for a current time period; and

determining the volume bonus payout per vehicle for the current time period utilizing the expected average of the expected sales percentage ratio for the current time period.

21. The system of claim 17, wherein the particular level represents a geographical level, a market level, or a volume level.