Predicting real estate and other transactions

• US 8,583,562 B1
• Filed: 09/30/2009
• Issued: 11/12/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 10/01/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Likely Analytics Incorporated
• Original Assignee: RealAgile, Inc.
• Inventors: Sacerdoti, Earl D., McDaniel, Terrence Lee, McDaniel, Bradley John, Norman, John Phillip, Robbins, Michael LaMar
• Primary Examiner(s): Plucinski, Jami A
• Assistant Examiner(s): Cumarasegaran, Vern
• Application Number:
  US12/571,350
• Time in Patent Office: 1,504 Days
• Field of Search: 705/313
• US Class Current: 705/313
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/06 Buying, selling or leasing transactions
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/16 Real estate

Abstract

A technique for estimating the relative likelihood that specific parcels or groups thereof will sell within a selected time, possibly including such steps as: Responsive to location of each parcel with respect to other parcels that have recently sold, including receiving a 1^st kind of information, associated with sales in a neighborhood for each parcel being examined, including a set of attributes. Deriving additional attributes for each parcel based on its attributes and others near it. Determining independently for each neighborhood which of those attributes are more important for estimating relative likelihood of sale. Determining a degree of similarity between each unsold parcel and each recently-sold parcel, in response to those sets of attributes, weighted in response to relative importance. Providing a 2^nd kind of information, ordering parcels by a relative likelihood of sale within a selected time.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:

receiving, by at least one computer, data associated with a set of a plurality of parcels;

selecting, by said at least one computer, at least one selected parcel of said plurality of parcels,

said at least one selected parcel being more likely to at least one of;

be sold, or

be offered for sale,

within a selected time

than at least one of said plurality of parcels not one of said at least one selected parcel;

wherein said selecting comprises;

defining, by said at least one computer, at least one micro-market,

wherein each of said at least one micro-market comprises

at least one first subset of said set of said plurality of parcels;

determining, by said at least one computer,

for substantially each said at least one micro-market

a model associated with said at least one micro-market; and

for at least a second subset of said set of said plurality of parcels comprising

a second plurality of parcels,

defining, by said at least one computer, a relative order of said second plurality of parcels based on at least one of;

likelihood of sale, or

being offered for sale,

within said selected time,

in response to

comparing, by said at least one computer, each given parcel of said second plurality of parcels,

with an associated model of a given micro-market, said given micro-market being associated with said each given parcel; and

providing, by said at least one computer, said at least one selected parcel of said plurality of parcels.

2. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1,

wherein said comparing comprises

determining, by said at least one computer, a measure of similarity between said each given parcel

and said associated model of said given micro-market.

3. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1,

wherein each said at least one micro-market

is responsive to

a measure of size of

said at least one micro-market, said at least one micro-market being geographically contiguous.

4. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein

substantially each said model

is specific to a micro-market.

5. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein

substantially each said model

associated with said associated micro-market, comprises:

wherein said micro-market comprises at least one of;

being a geographically convex shape;

being a polygon shape;

being a circular shape;

or

being a hexagonal shape.

6. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein

a set of said at least one micro-markets

substantially tiles

a region including substantially all said set of said plurality of parcels.

7. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein

at least one of said at least one micro-market comprises at least a 1st selected number of said plurality of said parcels sold within a 1st selected time.

8. The computer-implemented method according to claim 7, wherein

said set of said plurality of parcels

defines, by said at least one computer, at least one of said at least one micro-market

each said at least one micromarket having fewer than a 2^nd selected number of said plurality of said parcels sold within a 2^nd selected time.

9. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1,

wherein substantially each said model comprises a representation of

a point in a multi-dimensional space,

at least one dimension of said multi-dimensional space

being responsive to values of attributes of said data associated with at least one of said plurality of said parcels.

10. The computer-implemented method according to claim 9, wherein

said at least one dimension comprises normalized ones of said values of said attributes.

11. The computer-implemented method according to claim 9, wherein

said multi-dimensional space is substantially topologically equivalent to R^a.

12. The computer-implemented method according to claim 9, wherein

said comparing comprises

determining, by said at least one computer, a location in said multi-dimensional space corresponding to said each parcel,

determining, by said at least one computer, a measure of distance in said multi-dimensional space between said location in said multi-dimensional space corresponding to said each parcel and said representation of said point in said multi-dimensional space of said model;

and

said defining comprises

ranking, by said at least one computer, said plurality of said parcels by said measure of distance.

13. The computer-implemented method according to claim 9, wherein

said comparing comprises for each said parcel,

determining, by said at least one computer, a measure of dissimilarity between said parcel and said model;

and

said measure of dissimilarity is substantially comparable among a plurality of said models.

14. The computer-implemented method according to claim 9, wherein said attributes comprise at least one of:

a historic, demographic, or psychographic data attribute;

a demographic, or psychographic projection;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a business establishment;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a business employment;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a lifestyle segmentation;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a classification of a lifestyle segmentation;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a transportation system;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a road, a highway, a bus route, or terminal facility transportation system;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a land use characteristic;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a park or shopping center land use characteristic;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a legislative or regulatory enactment, or frequency thereof;

a historical, recent, or projected information about a political, municipality, school district, or administrative boundary;

a household specific attribute;

a neighborhood specific attribute;

a parcel specific attribute;

a latitude, a longitude, a lot size, a sale date, a local population, a population in an age segment, an area of a building, a building age or a sales price parcel specific attribute;

a time since last sale;

a prior sale frequency;

a number of recent sales;

a number of surrounding parcels;

a ratio of attributes;

a ratio of number of recent sales to number of surrounding parcels;

a ratio of number of recent sales to number of surrounding parcels within an associated micro-market;

a number of sales to a number of parcels ratio;

a ratio of number of recent sales to number of surrounding parcels;

a ratio of number of recent sales to number of surrounding parcels within a selected distance buffer;

a number of months since most recent sale of said selected parcel;

a number of months between the last two known sales, for sales used to create an associated model or canonical parcel;

a number of months from the last known sale, for parcels evaluated for difference from an associated model or a canonical parcel;

a number of people in an area associated with said selected parcel in a given age range, divided by a total population in the area;

a number of people in an area associated with said selected parcel younger than a given age, divided by a total population in the area;

a number of people in an area associated with said selected parcel younger than 18, divided by a total population in the area;

a number of people in an area associated with said selected parcel older than a given age, divided by a total population in the area;

a number of people in an area associated with said selected parcel older than 65, divided by a total population in the area;

a building area;

a building age calculated by calculating a difference between a current year less a year building built;

a lot size;

a sale price estimate;

a value of a sale price surface area at a latitude/longitude for a specific parcel;

a value of a sale price surface area generated from recent sales at a latitude/longitude for a specific parcel;

a sale price per area estimate;

a value of a sale price per area surface at a location for a specific parcel;

a value of a sale price per area surface generated from recent sales at a location for a specific parcel

a value of a sale price per area surface at a latitude/longitude for a specific parcel;

or

a value of a sale price per area surface generated from recent sales at a latitude/longitude for a specific parcel.

15. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein each of said plurality of parcels comprises at least one of:

a spatial unit;

a real estate parcel;

real property;

a single family residence;

a townhome;

a condominium;

a multi-floor structure;

a multiunit structure;

personal property;

or an automobile.

16. The method according to claim 1, wherein said comparing comprises:

comparing, by said at least one computer, said each given parcel with a micro-market specific comparison with said associated model of said given micro-market associated with said each given parcel.

17. The method according to claim 1, wherein said model comprises a canonical sold parcel within a predetermined time period.

18. A computer-implemented method, comprising

receiving, by at least one computer, data associated with a set of a plurality of parcels;

determining, by said at least one computer,

for a 1st parcel and a 2nd parcel of said plurality of said parcels,

one of said 1st and said 2nd parcels at least one of;

more likely to sell, or

more likely to be offered for sale,

within a selected time;

wherein said determining comprises;

defining, by said at least one computer, at least one micro-market,

wherein each said at least one micro-market comprises

at least one first subset of said set of said plurality of parcels;

determining, by said at least one computer,

for substantially each said at least one micro-market

a model associated with said at least one micro-market; and

for at least a second subset of said set of said plurality of parcels comprising

a second plurality of parcels,

defining, by said at least one computer, a relative order of said second plurality of parcels based on at least one of;

likelihood of sale, or

being offered for sale,

within said selected time,

in response to

comparing, by said at least one computer, each given parcel of said second plurality of parcels,

with an associated model of a given micro-market, said given micro-market being associated with said each given parcel; and

providing, by said at least one computer, said one of said 1st and said 2nd parcels determined to be more likely to sell or be offered for sale of said set of said plurality of parcels.

19. A computer-implemented method, comprising

receiving, by at least one computer, data associated with a set of a plurality of parcels;

defining, by said at least one computer, at least one micro-market

each said at least one micro-market comprising a subset of said set of said plurality of parcels,

each said micro-market responsive to

a measure of distance between a 1st and a 2nd parcel in said micro-market;

describing, by said at least one computer, for substantially each said micro-market,

an associated model;

determining, by said at least one computer, a relative order of at least one of;

likely sale;

or

likely offer for sale;

within a selected time;

in response to

for each particular parcel

comparing, by said at least one computer, said parcel with said associated model of said micro-market; and

providing, by said at least one computer, said relative order determined based on said comparing.

20. A computer-implemented method, comprising:

a) transforming, by at least one computer, data

said data responsive to a set of a plurality of parcels

into a set of models

at least one of said models

said data responsive to at least a portion of said data associated with a subset of said set of said plurality of parcels

and said data responsive to a measure of distance between a plurality of said plurality of parcels associated with said particular one model

wherein

said transforming of said data comprises;

i) ordering, by said at least one computer, a 1st and a 2nd parcels

with respect to at least one of;

a likelihood of sale;

or

a likelihood of offer for sale;

within a selected time;

wherein said ordering comprises;

A) defining, by said at least one computer, at least one micro-market,

wherein each said at least one micro-market comprises

at least one first subset of said set of said plurality of parcels;

B) determining, by said at least one computer,

for substantially each said at least one micro-market

a model associated with said at least one micro-market; and

C) for at least a second subset of said set of said plurality of parcels comprising

a second plurality of parcels,

defining, by said at least one computer, a relative order of said second plurality of parcels based on at least one of;

likelihood of sale, or

being offered for sale,

within said selected time,

in response to

D) comparing, by said at least one computer, each given parcel of said second plurality of parcels,

with an associated model of a given micro-market, said given micro-market being associated with said each given parcel.

21. The computer-implemented method according to claim 20, wherein

substantially each said model is associated with a micro-market,

said micro-market being geographically contiguous.

22. The computer-implemented method according to claim 20, wherein

substantially each said model associated with said associated micro-market comprises:

wherein said micro-market comprises at least one of;

being a geographically convex shape;

being a polygon shape;

being a circular shape;

or

being a hexagonal shape.

23. A computer implemented system comprising:

at least one database;

at least one computer coupled to said at least one database;

at least one communication network coupled to said at least one computer;

wherein said at least one computer is adapted to compute a ranking comprising;

means for receiving, by said at least one computer from said at least one communication network, data associated with a set of a plurality of parcels into said at least one database;

means for selecting, by said at least one computer, at least one selected parcel of said plurality of parcels,

wherein said at least one selected parcel being more likely to at least one of;

be sold, or

be offered for sale,

within a selected time,

than at least one of said plurality of parcels not one of said at least one selected parcel,

wherein said means for selecting comprises;

means for defining, by said at least one computer, at least one micro-market,

wherein each said at least one micro-market comprises

at least one first subset of said set of said plurality of parcels;

means for determining, by said at least one computer,

for substantially each said at least one micro-market

a model associated with said at least one micro-market; and

for at least a second subset of said set of said plurality of parcels comprising a second plurality of parcels,

means for defining, by said at least one computer, a relative order of said second plurality of parcels based on at least one of;

likelihood of sale, or

being offered for sale,

within said selected time,

in response to

means for comparing, by said at least one computer, each given parcel of said second plurality of parcels,

with an associated model of a given micro-market, said given micro-market being associated with said each given parcel; and

means for providing, by said at least one computer, for display or over said at least one communication network, said at least one selected parcel being more likely to be sold or offered for sale within said selected time than said plurality of parcels not of said at least one selected parcel of said set of said plurality of said parcels.

24. A computer program product embodied on a computer accessible medium, said computer program product comprising program logic, which when executed by at least one computer performs a method, comprising:

receiving, by the at least one computer, data associated with a set of a plurality of parcels;

selecting, by the at least one computer, at least one selected parcel of said plurality of parcels,

said at least one selected parcel being more likely to at least one of;

be sold, or

be offered for sale,

within a selected time,

than at least one of said plurality of parcels not one of said at least one selected parcel;

wherein said selecting comprises;

defining, by the at least one computer, at least one micro-market,

wherein each said at least one micro-market comprises

at least one first subset of said set of said plurality of parcels;

determining, by the at least one computer,

for substantially each said at least one micro-market

a model associated with said at least one micro-market; and

for at least a second subset comprising

a plurality of parcels of said set of said plurality of parcels,

defining, by the at least one computer, a relative order of said plurality of parcels within said second subset based on at least one of;

likelihood of sale, or

being offered for sale,

within said selected time,

in response to

comparing, by the at least one computer, each given parcel of said plurality of parcels in said second subset,

with an associated model of a given micro-market being associated with said each given parcel; and

providing, by the at least one computer, said at least one selected parcel of said plurality of parcels.