Coupling time evolution model with empirical regression model to estimate mechanical wear
First Claim
1. A method for monitoring wear in a mechanical system, comprising:
- (a) repeatedly measuring a parameter over time during operation of the mechanical system;
(b) calculating residuals at time points over the life of the mechanical system using an empirical model that models values of said parameter as a function of values of other parameters, said residuals representing the respective differences between each measurement of said parameter and each corresponding parameter value predicted by the empirical model;
(c) determining whether the measurements evolve as expected under a time evolution model that relates predictions of residuals over time; and
(d) flagging an event in response to the measurements of said parameter deviating over time from the behavior predicted by the time evolution model by more than a threshold value,wherein in accordance with said time evolution model, wear at time t equals the wear at a previous time (t−
1) plus a local growth rate at time (t−
1).
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Abstract
Mechanical systems wear or change over time. Data collected over a system'"'"'s life can be input to statistical learning models to predict this wear/change. Previous work by the inventors trained a flexible empirical regression model at a fixed point of wear, and then applied it independently at time points over the life of an engine to predict wear. The embodiment disclosed herein relates those wear predictions over time using a time evolution model. The time evolution model is sequentially updated with new data, and effectively tunes the empirical model for each engine. The combined model predicts wear with dramatically reduced variability. The benefit of reduced variability is that engine wear is more evident, and it is possible to detect operational anomalies more quickly. In addition to tracking wear, the model is also used as the basis for a Bayesian approach to monitor for sudden changes and reject outliers, and adapt the model after these events.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method for monitoring wear in a mechanical system, comprising:
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(a) repeatedly measuring a parameter over time during operation of the mechanical system; (b) calculating residuals at time points over the life of the mechanical system using an empirical model that models values of said parameter as a function of values of other parameters, said residuals representing the respective differences between each measurement of said parameter and each corresponding parameter value predicted by the empirical model; (c) determining whether the measurements evolve as expected under a time evolution model that relates predictions of residuals over time; and (d) flagging an event in response to the measurements of said parameter deviating over time from the behavior predicted by the time evolution model by more than a threshold value, wherein in accordance with said time evolution model, wear at time t equals the wear at a previous time (t−
1) plus a local growth rate at time (t−
1). - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
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10. A method for monitoring wear in a mechanical system, comprising:
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(a) repeatedly measuring a parameter over time during operation of the mechanical system; (b) calculating the value of a monitoring statistic for each of said measurements; (c) calculating the value of a cumulative monitoring statistic that is a product of sequential values of said monitoring statistic; (d) determining whether the value of said monitoring statistic is less than or not less than a threshold value; (e) determining whether the value of said cumulative monitoring statistic is less than or not less than said threshold value; and (f) flagging an event in response to the values of said monitoring statistic and said cumulative monitoring statistic being less than said threshold value, wherein said mechanical system is a gas turbine engine and said parameter is engine exhaust gas temperature. - View Dependent Claims (11, 12, 13, 14)
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15. A system for monitoring the health of a mechanical system, comprising a computer system programmed to perform the following operations:
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(a) receiving values representing the results of measurements of a parameter over time during operation of the mechanical system; (b) predicting residuals at time points over the life of the mechanical system using an empirical model that models values of said parameter as a function of values of other parameters, said residuals representing the respective differences between each measurement of said parameter and each corresponding parameter value predicted by the empirical model; (c) determining whether the measurements evolve as expected under a time evolution model that relates predictions of residuals over time; and (d) flagging an event in response to the measurements of said parameter deviating over time from the behavior predicted by the time evolution model by more than a threshold value, wherein said mechanical system is a gas turbine engine and said parameter is engine exhaust gas temperature. - View Dependent Claims (16, 17, 18, 19)
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20. A system for monitoring the health of a mechanical system, comprising a computer system programmed to perform the following operations:
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(a) receiving values representing the results of measurements of a parameter over time during operation of the mechanical system; (b) calculating the value of a monitoring statistic for each of said measurements; (c) calculating the value of a cumulative monitoring statistic that is a product of a plurality of values of said monitoring statistic; (d) determining whether the value of said monitoring statistic is less than or not less than a threshold value; (e) determining whether the value of said cumulative monitoring statistic is less than or not less than said threshold value; and (f) flagging an event in response to the values of said monitoring statistic and said cumulative monitoring statistic being less than said threshold value, wherein said mechanical system is a gas turbine engine and said parameter is engine exhaust gas temperature.
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Specification