Statistical method to obtain high accuracy in forecasting plant energy use

• US 8,606,421 B2
• Filed: 07/18/2011
• Issued: 12/10/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 07/18/2011
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: GM Global Technology Operations LLC (General Motors Company)
• Original Assignee: GM Global Technology Operations LLC (General Motors Company)
• Inventors: Oh, Seog-Chan, Hildreth, Alfred
• Primary Examiner(s): Ali, Mohammad
• Assistant Examiner(s): WHITTINGTON, ANTHONY T
• Application Number:
  US13/184,890
• Publication Number:
  US 20130024031A1
• Time in Patent Office: 876 Days
• Field of Search: 700/291, 709/224, 705/37
• US Class Current: 700/291
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

Methods of forecasting and modulating energy consumption at a production facility are provided. The amounts of energy consumed during production and non-production times are used to obtain highly accurate hourly energy use rates for different energy use activities which are used to estimate the amount of energy that will be consumed during a subsequent time period. The forecasting and modulating methods provide a more tailored estimate of energy usage that prevents the unnecessary expense of using on-demand energy without the benefit of a pre-purchased or pre-reserved discount. The forecasting and modulating methods also help prevent overestimation of the amount of energy used.

Claims

1. A method of forecasting energy usage for a production facility, the method comprising:

obtaining, by a control module, meter data and production data over a first time period to determine energy usage rates during a production period, a non-production period, and a weekend/holiday non-production period;

predicting, by the control module, an amount of energy (T_e) required for a target year period using the equation;

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising modifying the first amount of energy.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the first amount of energy is different from an amount of energy used during the first time period, where the target year period and the first time period are of the same duration.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising updating the meter data and the production data.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein at least one of the meter data and the production data is updated to provide current energy information for a period of from about one week to about three months.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising providing a visual, audio, or tactile signal to prompt making a change in the first amount of energy.

7. The method of claim 6, further comprising transmitting the visual, audio, or tactile signal to a remote location.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the energy includes electricity, and wherein the energy use values e_p, e_np, and e_npw are expressed in units of kilowatt-hours.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining the energy use values e_p, e_np, and e_npw from the meter data and the production data.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the first time period is a year-long period immediately prior to the target year period.

11. The method of claim 1, further comprising adjusting the first amount of energy in response to a change in one or more of N_v, JPH, or N_wd.

12. A non-transitory tangible computer readable medium storing a computer program including processor-executable instructions, the processor-executable instructions comprising:

obtaining meter data and production data over a first time period to determine energy usage rates during a production period, a non-production period, and a weekend/holiday non-production period;

predicting an amount of energy (T_e) required for a target year period at a production facility using the equation;

13. The non-transitory tangible computer readable medium of claim 12, wherein the processor-executable instructions further comprise outputting a visual, audio, or tactile signal to prompt making a change in the first amount of energy.

14. The non-transitory tangible computer readable medium of claim 13, wherein the processor-executable instructions further comprise transmitting the visual, audio, or tactile signal to a remote location for output at the remote location.

15. The non-transitory tangible computer readable medium of claim 12, wherein the energy includes electricity, and wherein the energy use values e_p, e_np, and e_npw are expressed in units of kilowatt-hours.

16. The non-transitory tangible computer readable medium of claim 12, wherein the processor-executable instructions further comprise determining the energy usage rates e_p, e_np, and e_npw from the meter data and the production data.

17. The non-transitory tangible computer readable medium of claim 16, wherein the first time period is a year-long period immediately prior to the target year period.

18. The non-transitory tangible computer readable medium of claim 12, wherein the processor-executable instructions further comprise adjusting the first amount of energy in response to a change in one or more of N_v, JPH, or N_wd.