Prognostic condition assessment decision aid

• US 8,620,714 B2
• Filed: 11/28/2006
• Issued: 12/31/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 11/28/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Williams, Zachary C., Poblete, James L.
• Primary Examiner(s): Sterrett, Jonathan G
• Application Number:
  US11/564,183
• Publication Number:
  US 20080125933A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,590 Days
• Field of Search: 701/29, 701/30, 701/29.3, 701/30.2, 705 8- 10, 705/7.12, 705/7.22, 705/7.37
• US Class Current: 705/7.22
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0637 Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management

Abstract

Methods and systems for prognostic condition assessment decision aid of a fleet of vehicles are disclosed. In one embodiment, a method includes providing a schedule of missions and maintenance of a fleet of vehicles, comprising receiving data from the fleet of vehicles for missions and maintenance activity, determining mission and maintenance requirements, processing the received data and requirements to provide an operational allocation of the fleet of vehicles, determining an alternative allocation of the operational allocation of the fleet of vehicles, the alternative allocation satisfying at least one operational objective for the fleet of vehicles, and generating a schedule for the alternative allocation of the fleet of vehicles.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method to manage utilization of a fleet of vehicles, comprising:

receiving, via a computing device, data from the fleet of vehicles for historical missions and maintenance activity and at least one of hypothetical operational data and hypothetical maintenance data;

determining future mission and maintenance requirements for the fleet of vehicles using the historical missions and maintenance activity and the at least one of hypothetical operational data and hypothetical maintenance data;

processing the received data and the requirements to provide an operational allocation of the fleet of vehicles;

modifying, via the computing device, the operational allocation of the fleet of vehicles by changing at least one decision of the mission or the maintenance requirements of the operational allocation, the at least one decision selected from fault forwarding, fix or fly decision, and condition-based maintenance, or a combination thereof, the modified operational allocation satisfying at least one of reducing operational costs or increasing availability of the vehicles in the fleet of vehicles;

generating, via the computing device, a schedule for the modified operational allocation of the fleet of vehicles to implement the at least one decision of the mission or maintenance requirements; and

generating an output which presents an operational availability sensitivity analysis of fleet availability to manpower consumption for a baseline fleet and an upgraded fleet, wherein the operational availability sensitivity analysis charts fleet availability in response to a reduction in maintenance manpower from a full maintenance schedule to a maintenance schedule which results in a reduction in fleet availability.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising generating an output which presents an impact of prognostics on fleet availability and reliability.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising deriving an optimum health management solution for the fleet of vehicles.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the mission requirements include at least one of mission priorities, alternative vehicle availability and location, and operational risk tolerance.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein processing the received data includes simulating at least one mission and maintenance allocation.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the simulated mission and maintenance allocation includes production processes and metrics, mission processes and metrics, maintenance processes and metrics, command and control processes and metrics, and fleet management processes and metrics.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the modifying the operational allocation of a fleet of vehicles includes determining an alternative mission and maintenance allocation to at least perform one of increasing fleet reliability, reducing operational costs, decreasing maintenance resources, and increasing maintenance utilization.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the operational allocation of the fleet of vehicles includes incorporating prognostic maintenance requirements.

9. The method of claim 1 further comprising determining a system health operations analysis for the fleet of vehicles by performing operations, comprising:

providing a plurality of inputs to a computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, the plurality of inputs including at least one of actual data and hypothetical data;

providing a plurality of system sensitivities to the computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, each system sensitivity being associated with a corresponding one of the plurality of inputs;

providing a plurality of health management solution assumptions to the computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, each health management solution assumption being associated with a corresponding one of the plurality of inputs;

providing a plurality of benefit sensitivities to the computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, each benefit sensitivity being associated with a corresponding one of the plurality of inputs; and

computing a system health operations analysis of the vehicle fleet using the computer based model of system health operations based on the plurality of inputs, the plurality of system sensitivities, the plurality of health management solution assumptions, and the plurality of benefit sensitivities.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the generating the schedule includes assessing maintenance decision criteria and mission decision criteria.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the maintenance decision criteria and the mission decision criteria include at least one of operational risk, mission success rates, and resource utilization levels.

12. The method of claim 10, wherein at least one of the maintenance decision criteria and the mission decision criteria include user interaction to modify the allocation of a vehicle.

13. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media comprising computer-executable instructions that, when executed on one or more processors, perform acts comprising:

receiving data for historical activity and future requirements for a fleet of vehicles for missions and maintenance and at least one of hypothetical operational data and hypothetical maintenance data;

generating at least one prognostic indicator from the received data for missions and maintenance of the fleet of vehicles and the at least one of hypothetical operational data and hypothetical maintenance data;

determining at least one decision criteria for the future requirements that impacts the prognostic indicator, the at least one decision criteria selected from at least one of fault forwarding, fix or fly decision, or condition-based maintenance;

determining an allocation of the fleet of vehicles based on the received data, the at least one prognostic indicator, and the at least one decision criteria to at least one of increase fleet reliability and reduce operational costs; and

generating a schedule for the allocation of the fleet of vehicles that implements the at least one decision criteria; and

generating an output which presents an operational availability sensitivity analysis of fleet availability to manpower consumption for a baseline fleet and an upgraded fleet, wherein the operational availability sensitivity analysis charts fleet availability in response to a reduction in maintenance manpower from a full maintenance schedule to a maintenance schedule which results in a severe reduction in fleet availability.

14. The one or more computer-readable media of claim 13, wherein the logic instructions generate an output which presents an impact of prognostics on fleet availability and reliability.

15. The one or more computer-readable media of claim 13, wherein the allocation includes processes and metrics for each of production, missions, maintenance, command and control, and fleet management.

16. The one or more computer-readable media of claim 13, wherein the determining the allocation of a fleet of vehicles includes decreasing maintenance resources and increasing maintenance utilization.

17. A computer-based system to manage utilization of a fleet of vehicles, comprising:

an input component configured to receive data for historical activity and future requirements from the fleet of vehicles for missions and maintenance and at least one of hypothetical operational data and hypothetical maintenance data;

a processor component configured to

generate a prognostic and system heath management indicator from the received data for missions and maintenance of the fleet of vehicles and the at least one of hypothetical operational data and hypothetical maintenance data;

generate decision criteria for the future requirements that impacts the prognostic indicator, the decision criteria including at least one of condition-based maintenance and fix or fly decisions;

provide a mission and maintenance allocation of the fleet of vehicles utilizing the received data, the prognostic indicators, and the decision critera to at least one of increase fleet reliability and reduce operational costs; and

generate a schedule for the mission and maintenance allocation of the fleet of vehicles; and

generate an output which presents an operational availability sensitivity analysis of fleet availability to manpower consumption for a baseline fleet and an upgraded fleet, wherein the operational availability sensitivity analysis charts fleet availability in response to a reduction in maintenance manpower from a full maintenance schedule to a maintenance schedule which results in a severe reduction in fleet availability.

18. The system of claim 17, wherein the vehicles are unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

19. The computer based system of claim 17, wherein the processor component is configured to generate an output which presents an impact of prognostics on fleet availability and reliability.

20. The computer based system of claim 17, wherein the processor component is configured to derive an optimum health management solution for the fleet of vehicles.

21. The computer based system of claim 17, wherein the processor component is configured to

receive a plurality of inputs to a computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, the plurality of inputs including at least one of actual data and hypothetical data;

receive a plurality of system sensitivities to the computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, each system sensitivity being associated with a corresponding one of the plurality of inputs;

receive a plurality of health management solution assumptions to the computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, each health management solution assumption being associated with a corresponding one of the plurality of inputs;

receive a plurality of benefit sensitivities to the computer-based model of system health operations of the vehicle fleet, each benefit sensitivity being associated with a corresponding one of the plurality of inputs; and

compute a system health operations analysis of the vehicle fleet using the computer based model of system health operations based on the plurality of inputs, the plurality of system sensitivities, the plurality of health management solution assumptions, and the plurality of benefit sensitivities; and

generate an output which presents an operational availability sensitivity analysis of fleet availability to manpower consumption for a baseline fleet and an upgraded fleet.