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Systems, methods, and computer program products for predictive accuracy for strategic decision support

  • US 8,620,852 B1
  • Filed: 12/16/2010
  • Issued: 12/31/2013
  • Est. Priority Date: 12/16/2010
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A method, comprising:

  • providing an unconstrained domain model defined by domain concepts, probabilistic causal relationships between the domain concepts, and a temporal relationship between at least one pair of the domain concepts, wherein each probabilistic causal relationship includes a value for the weight of causal belief for the probabilistic causal relationship, and wherein each temporal relationship includes a value for the expected time to the effect for the temporal relationship;

    receiving the probabilistic causal relationships between the domain concepts for the domain model from a user;

    receiving the temporal relationships between the at least one pair of domain concepts for the domain from the user; and

    transforming, using a processor, the unconstrained domain model into a Continuous Time Bayesian Network formalism for the domain model using at least the domain concepts and temporal relationships.

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