Supply risk detection

• US 8,700,443 B1
• Filed: 06/29/2011
• Issued: 04/15/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 06/29/2011
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Inventors: Murray, Jason W., Mishra, Devesh, Maurer, Jeffrey B., Mack, Eric M, Xu, Minshu
• Primary Examiner(s): Meinecke Diaz, Susanna M
• Application Number:
  US13/172,720
• Time in Patent Office: 1,021 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.31
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06312 Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders

Abstract

Systems and methods for supply risk detection are disclosed. In some embodiments, a method includes identifying fulfillment-related features corresponding to an item to be stored in inventory. The method also includes selecting a subset of the fulfillment-related features that is correlated with a supply constraint associated with the item. For example, in some cases the correlation is based on historical supply constraint data. The method further includes building a supply risk early detection model based, at least in part, upon the subset fulfillment-related features and evaluating the model to determine a probability that a third-party vendor will suffer a shortage of the item, as well as an expected duration of the shortage. Upon evaluation of the model, the method may include creating a purchasing plan for the item that takes into account the probability of the shortage and the expected duration of the shortage.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

performing, by one or more computers;

correlating a supply constraint of an item to be supplied from a supplier to a fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory with fulfillment-related features of the item to determine a subset of the fulfillment-related features, wherein at least some of the fulfillment-related features are demand-side features pertaining to fulfillment of the item from the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory, said correlating comprising;

identifying the fulfillment-related features corresponding to the item to be supplied to the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory;

selecting the subset of the fulfillment-related features based, at least in part, on a determination that the subset of the fulfillment-related features of the item to be fulfilled from the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory is correlated with the supply constraint associated with the item from the supplier and that another subset of the fulfillment-related features is unrelated to the supply constraint, wherein the supply constraint includes at least one of a purchase order rejection, a purchase order cancellation, a purchase order backorder, or a partial receipt, and wherein the determination is based at least in part on historical supply constraint data;

building a supply risk early detection model based, at least in part, upon the subset of fulfillment-related features of the item to be fulfilled from the fulfillments entity'"'"'s inventory;

evaluating the supply risk early detection model to determine a probability that the supplier will suffer a shortage in the supplier'"'"'s inventory of the item, wherein the supplier'"'"'s inventory is separate from the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory, and to determine an expected duration of the shortage; and

creating a purchasing plan for the item based at least in part on;

the probability of the supplier'"'"'s shortage,

the expected duration of the supplier'"'"'s shortage,

an associated cost of buying additional units of the item, and

an associated cost of not having sufficient supply of the item to serve an expected demand for the item.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the fulfillment-related features include a supplier identity.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the fulfillment-related features include at least one of an item identity or a release date of the item.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the fulfillment-related features include a quantity of the item to be purchased.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the fulfillment-related features include a velocity with which the item is sold to customers.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the fulfillment-related features include a user-defined replenishment code associated with the item.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the fulfillment-related features include a prior supply constraint.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein selecting the subset of fulfillment-related features includes calculating a correlation coefficient for each feature of the subset of fulfillment-related features.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the supply risk early detection model includes a logistical regression model, and wherein an exponent of the logistical regression model includes a linear combination of two or more features of the subset of fulfillment-related features.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein creating the purchasing plan includes modifying an existing purchasing plan.

11. A system, comprising:

at least one processor; and

a memory coupled to the at least one processor, wherein the memory stores program instructions, and wherein the program instructions are executable by the at least one processor to cause the system to;

correlate a supply constraint of an item to be supplied from a supplier to a fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory with fulfillment-related features of the item to determine a subset of the fulfillment-related features, wherein at least some of the fulfillment-related features are demand-side features pertaining to fulfillment of the item from the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory, said correlate comprising;

identify the fulfillment-related features corresponding to the item to be purchased from a supplier by a merchant;

select the subset of the fulfillment-related features based, at least in part, on a determination that the subset of the fulfillment-related features of the item to be fulfilled from the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory is correlated with the supply constraint associated with the item from the supplier and that another subset of the fulfillment-related features is unrelated to the supply constraint, wherein the determination is based at least in part on historical supply constraint data, and wherein the supply constraint includes at least one of a purchase order rejection, a purchase order cancellation, a purchase order backorder, or a partial receipt;

build a model configured to calculate a probability of the supplier stocking out of the item and an expected duration of the stockout based, at least in part, upon the subset of fulfillment-related features; and

create a purchasing plan for the item that takes into account;

the probability of the stockout,

the expected duration of the stockout,

an associated cost of buying additional units of the item, and

an associated cost of not having sufficient supply of the item to serve an expected demand for the item.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the fulfillment-related features include a supplier identity and an item identity.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein the fulfillment-related features include at least one of a quantity of the item to be purchased by the merchant, a velocity with which the item is sold to the merchant'"'"'s customers, or a user-defined replenishment code associated with the item.

14. The system of claim 11, wherein the model includes a logistical regression model, and wherein an exponent of the logistical regression includes a linear combination of two or more features of the subset of fulfillment-related features.

15. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having program instructions stored thereon that, upon execution by a computer system, cause the computer system to:

evaluate a model configured to calculate a probability of a supplier stocking out of an item in the supplier'"'"'s inventory and determine an expected duration of the stockout based, at least in part, upon a set of fulfillment-related features corresponding to the item, wherein the set of fulfillment-related features is selected based on a determination that each feature of the set is correlated with a supply constraint of an item to be supplied from a supplier to a fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory and that each feature of another set is unrelated to the supply constraint, wherein the supplier'"'"'s inventory is separate from the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory, wherein at least some of the fulfillment-related features are demand-side features pertaining to fulfillment of the item from the fulfillment entity'"'"'s inventory, wherein the determination is based at least in part on historical supply constraint data, and wherein the supply constraint includes at least one of a purchase order rejection, a purchase order cancellation, a purchase order backorder, or a partial receipt; and

create a purchasing plan for the item based at least in part on;

the probability of the supplier'"'"'s stockout,

the expected duration of the supplier'"'"'s stockout,

an associated cost of buying additional units of the item, and

an associated cost of not having sufficient supply of the item to serve an expected demand for the item.

16. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the set of fulfillment-related features includes a supplier identity, an item identity, a quantity of the item to be purchased by the fulfillment entity, a velocity with which the item is sold to the fulfillment entity'"'"'s customers, or a user-defined replenishment code associated with the item.

17. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the model includes a logistical regression model, and wherein an exponent of the logistical regression includes a linear combination of two or more features of the set of fulfillment-related features.

18. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein creating the purchasing plan includes modifying an existing purchasing plan.