Decision management system and method
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
- a computer system assembling a first case in a memory in response to user input, wherein the first case comprises a plurality of models that represent components of a value chain in a petroleum exploration and/or production project, wherein each of the models includes one or more variables, wherein each of said one or more variables is defined on a corresponding user-specified range, wherein the models include a schedule, wherein the schedule includes one or more time-interval variables for one or more corresponding tasks;
the computer system creating instantiated models by selecting for each model a value of each of the one or more variables included in that model, wherein the value of each variable is selected from the corresponding user-specified range, wherein said selecting includes selecting a value for each of the time-interval variables, wherein said creating instantiated models includes determining event dates for the schedule based on the selected values of the one or more time-interval variables;
the computer system assembling the instantiated models into a workflow, wherein said assembling includes formatting the instantiated models for access by a plurality of user-identified simulation engines;
the computer system executing the simulation engines on the workflow to generate data output; and
the computer system storing the selected values of the variables and the corresponding data output from the simulation engines to the memory;
the computer system repeatedly performing a set of operations including said creating instantiated models, said assembling the instantiated models, said executing and said storing;
the computer system assembling a second case in the memory, wherein said assembling the second case includes receiving user input specifying modifications to a copy of the first case, wherein the second case includes a second plurality of models, wherein each of the models of the second plurality includes one or more variables; and
the computer system storing the second case and differences between the first case and second case in the memory.
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Abstract
A system and method may be configured to support the evaluation of the economic impact of uncertainties associated with the planning of a petroleum production project, e.g., uncertainties associated with decisions having multiple possible outcomes and uncertainties associated with uncontrollable parameters such as rock properties, oil prices, etc. The system and method involve receiving user input characterizing the uncertainty of planning variables and performing an iterative simulation that computes the economic return for various possible instantiations of the set of planning variables based on the uncertainty characterization. The system and method may (a) utilize and integrate highly rigorous physical reservoir, well, production flow, and economic models, and (b) provide a mechanism for specifying constraints on the planning variables. Furthermore, the system and method may provide a case manager process for managing multiple cases and associated “experimental runs” on the cases.
66 Citations
25 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
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a computer system assembling a first case in a memory in response to user input, wherein the first case comprises a plurality of models that represent components of a value chain in a petroleum exploration and/or production project, wherein each of the models includes one or more variables, wherein each of said one or more variables is defined on a corresponding user-specified range, wherein the models include a schedule, wherein the schedule includes one or more time-interval variables for one or more corresponding tasks; the computer system creating instantiated models by selecting for each model a value of each of the one or more variables included in that model, wherein the value of each variable is selected from the corresponding user-specified range, wherein said selecting includes selecting a value for each of the time-interval variables, wherein said creating instantiated models includes determining event dates for the schedule based on the selected values of the one or more time-interval variables; the computer system assembling the instantiated models into a workflow, wherein said assembling includes formatting the instantiated models for access by a plurality of user-identified simulation engines; the computer system executing the simulation engines on the workflow to generate data output; and the computer system storing the selected values of the variables and the corresponding data output from the simulation engines to the memory; the computer system repeatedly performing a set of operations including said creating instantiated models, said assembling the instantiated models, said executing and said storing; the computer system assembling a second case in the memory, wherein said assembling the second case includes receiving user input specifying modifications to a copy of the first case, wherein the second case includes a second plurality of models, wherein each of the models of the second plurality includes one or more variables; and the computer system storing the second case and differences between the first case and second case in the memory. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25)
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16. A computer-readable non-transitory memory medium storing program instructions, wherein the program instructions, when executed by a computer system, cause the computer system to:
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assemble a first case in a memory in response to user input, wherein the first case comprises a plurality of models that represent components of a value chain in a petroleum exploration and/or production project, wherein each of the models includes one or more variables, wherein each of said one or more variables is defined on a corresponding user-specified range, wherein the models include a schedule, wherein the schedule includes one or more time-interval variables for one or more corresponding tasks; create instantiated models by selecting for each model a value of each of the one or more variables included in that model, wherein the value of each variable is selected from the corresponding user-specified range, wherein said selecting includes selecting a value for each of the time-interval variables, wherein said creating instantiated models includes determining event dates for the schedule based on the selected values of the one or more time-interval variables; assemble the instantiated models into a workflow, wherein said assembling includes formatting the instantiated models for access by a plurality of user-identified simulation engines; execute the simulation engines on the workflow to generate data output; and store the selected values of the variables and the corresponding data output from the simulation engines to the memory; repeatedly perform a set of operations including said creating instantiated models, said assembling the instantiated models, said executing and said storing; assemble a second case in the memory, wherein said assembling the second case includes receiving user input specifying modifications to a copy of the first case, wherein the second case includes a second plurality of models, wherein each of the models of the second plurality includes one or more variables; and store the second case and differences between the first case and second case in the memory.
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17. A computer system comprising:
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a memory storing program instructions; a processor configured to read the program instructions from the memory, wherein the program instructions, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to; assemble a first case in a memory in response to user input, wherein the first case comprises a plurality of models that represent components of a value chain in a petroleum exploration and/or production project, wherein each of the models includes one or more variables, wherein each of said one or more variables is defined on a corresponding user-specified range, wherein the models include a schedule, wherein the schedule includes one or more time-interval variables for one or more corresponding tasks; create instantiated models by selecting for each model a value of each of the one or more variables included in that model, wherein the value of each variable is selected from the corresponding user-specified range, wherein said selecting includes selecting a value for each of the time-interval variables, wherein said creating instantiated models includes determining event dates for the schedule based on the selected values of the one or more time-interval variables; assemble the instantiated models into a workflow, wherein said assembling includes formatting the instantiated models for access by a plurality of user-identified simulation engines; execute the simulation engines on the workflow to generate data output; and store the selected values of the variables and the corresponding data output from the simulation engines to the memory; repeatedly perform a set of operations including said creating instantiated models, said assembling the instantiated models, said executing and said storing; assemble a second case in the memory, wherein said assembling the second case includes receiving user input specifying modifications to a copy of the first case, wherein the second case includes a second plurality of models, wherein each of the models of the second plurality includes one or more variables; and store the second case and differences between the first case and second case in the memory.
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Specification