Sample store forecasting process and system

• US 8,744,897 B2
• Filed: 12/02/2005
• Issued: 06/03/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 01/22/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: IQVIA, Inc. (IQVIA Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: IMS Software Services Ltd. (IQVIA Holdings, Inc.)
• Inventors: Boardman, Chris, Wynne, Brian, Copeland, Kennon
• Primary Examiner(s): Singh, Gurkanwaljit
• Assistant Examiner(s): Miller, Alan S
• Application Number:
  US11/293,603
• Publication Number:
  US 20060206365A1
• Time in Patent Office: 3,105 Days
• Field of Search: 705 711- 742
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 20/10 relating to drugs or medications, e.g. for ensuring correct administration to patients

Abstract

A method and system of predicting market information includes the steps of receiving first data, forecasting further data based on the first data, receiving second data and comparing the further data with the second data, and creating an adjustment factor to account for any difference between the further data and the second data.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

receiving, from a group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, data representing sales of at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets over a first period of time;

calculating, by one or more processors and at a product-level, a number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample outlets;

determining, based on the number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from a subset of one or more sample outlets included within the group of sample outlets, a product-level projection factor for the at least one pharmaceutical product;

projecting, using the determined product-level projection factor and for a second period of time, a predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, and a predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for a group of non-sample pharmaceutical outlets;

receiving, from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, additional data representing sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets over a third period of time;

comparing the additional data with the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets; and

determining, based on the comparison of the additional data with the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, an adjustment factor.

2. The method of claim 1 further comprising adjusting, based on the determined adjustment factor, the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of non-sample pharmaceutical outlets.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the data representing sales of at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, received over the first period of time, includes historical market data.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the adjustment factor is calculated on a product level.

5. The system of claim 1, further comprising:

determining a number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product at a sample outlet;

comparing the number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product at the sample outlet to an estimated total prescription threshold; and

responsive to comparing the number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product at the sample outlet to the estimated total prescription threshold, including the sample outlet within the subset of the group of sample outlets.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product at each of the one or more sample outlets included within the subset of the group of sample outlets meet or exceed an estimated total prescription threshold.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the subset of the group of sample outlets includes less than all of the sample outlets included within the group of sample outlets.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein a product level corresponds to a single product.

9. A system comprising:

one or more processors; and

a non-transitory computer-readable medium coupled to the one or more processors having instructions stored thereon which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising;

receiving, from a group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, data representing sales of at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets over a first period of time;

calculating, at a product-level, a number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample outlets;

determining, based on the number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from a subset of one or more sample outlets included within the group of sample outlets, a product-level projection factor for the at least one pharmaceutical product;

projecting, using the determined product-level projection factor and for a second period of time, a predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, and a predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for a group of non-sample pharmaceutical outlets;

receiving, from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, additional data representing sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets over a third period of time;

comparing the additional data with the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets; and

determining, based on the comparison of the additional data with the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, an adjustment factor.

10. The system of claim 9 further comprising adjusting, based on the determined adjustment factor, the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of non-sample pharmaceutical outlets.

11. The system of claim 9, wherein the data representing sales of at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, received over the first period of time, includes historical market data.

12. The system of claim 9, wherein the adjustment factor is calculated on a product level.

13. A non-transitory computer-readable medium encoded with instructions that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:

receiving, from a group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, data representing sales of at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets over a first period of time;

calculating, by one or more processors and at a product-level, a number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample outlets;

determining, based on the number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from a subset of one or more sample outlets included within the group of sample outlets, a product-level projection factor for the at least one pharmaceutical product;

projecting, using the determined product-level projection factor and for a second period of time, a predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, and a predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for a group of non-sample pharmaceutical outlets;

receiving, from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, additional data representing sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product from the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets over a third period of time;

comparing the additional data with the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets; and

determining, based on the comparison of the additional data with the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of sample pharmaceutical outlets, an adjustment factor.

14. The computer-readable medium of claim 13 further comprising adjusting, based on the determined adjustment factor, the predicted number of sales of the at least one pharmaceutical product for the group of non-sample pharmaceutical outlets.