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Method for predicting travel times using autoregressive models

  • US 8,762,036 B2
  • Filed: 11/15/2012
  • Issued: 06/24/2014
  • Est. Priority Date: 11/15/2012
  • Status: Expired due to Fees
First Claim
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1. A method for predicting a future travel time on a link, comprising:

  • a training phase comprising the steps of;

    collecting training travel times on the link for training seasonal intervals;

    determining training inflows from the training travel times;

    estimating a seasonal component of the training inflows;

    subtracting the seasonal component from the training inflows to obtain training deviations from the training inflows;

    determining statistics from the training deviations, wherein the seasonal components and the statistics form a model of traffic flow on the link; and

    a prediction phase comprising the steps of;

    collecting current travel times on the link for current seasonal intervals;

    determine current inflows from the current travel times;

    subtracting, for a most recent travel time from a most recent inflow to obtain a current deviation;

    estimating, for a future time a predicted deviation using the statistics;

    adding the seasonal component to the predicted deviation to obtain a predicted inflow; and

    determining the future travel time from the predicted inflow.

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