System and method for attributing multi-channel conversion events and subsequent activity to multi-channel media sources
First Claim
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1. A method comprising:
- determining, by a processing device, a first demographic profile of viewers for each of a plurality of media events;
identifying, by the processing device, a plurality of conversion events having unknown attribution, wherein each of the plurality of conversion events comprises purchase of a product or a service;
determining, by the processing device, a second demographic profile for each of a plurality of customers corresponding to the plurality of conversion events;
comparing the first demographic profiles of viewers for the plurality of media events with the second demographic profiles of the plurality of customers corresponding to the plurality of conversion events; and
determining, by the processing device, probabilistic attributions for the plurality of conversion events based on a result of the comparing of the first demographic profiles to the second demographic profiles, a probabilistic attribution for a conversion event comprising a media channel and a media event with a highest probability of having caused the conversion event.
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Abstract
This paper presents a practical method for measuring the impact of multiple marketing events on sales, including marketing events that are not traditionally trackable. The technique infers which of several competing media events are likely to have caused a given conversion. The method is tested using hold-out sets, and also a live media experiment for determining whether the method can accurately predict television-generated web conversions.
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Citations
32 Claims
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1. A method comprising:
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determining, by a processing device, a first demographic profile of viewers for each of a plurality of media events; identifying, by the processing device, a plurality of conversion events having unknown attribution, wherein each of the plurality of conversion events comprises purchase of a product or a service; determining, by the processing device, a second demographic profile for each of a plurality of customers corresponding to the plurality of conversion events; comparing the first demographic profiles of viewers for the plurality of media events with the second demographic profiles of the plurality of customers corresponding to the plurality of conversion events; and determining, by the processing device, probabilistic attributions for the plurality of conversion events based on a result of the comparing of the first demographic profiles to the second demographic profiles, a probabilistic attribution for a conversion event comprising a media channel and a media event with a highest probability of having caused the conversion event. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23)
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24. A computer-implemented method of attributing conversion events to advertising events, the method comprising:
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inferring, by a processing device, a model and parameters, wherein the model and parameters accurately predict data from a training set, wherein the training set comprises a first plurality of conversion events and a first plurality of advertising events, and further wherein each of the first plurality of conversion events is believed to be caused by one or more of the advertising events; identifying, by the processing device, a second plurality of conversion events having unknown attribution, wherein each of the second plurality of conversion events comprises purchase of a product or a service; and using the model to determine probabilistic attributions for the second plurality of conversion events, the probabilistic attribution for a conversion event of the second plurality of conversion events comprising one or more of a second plurality of advertising events having a highest probability of having caused the conversion event, wherein the conversion event is not linked to any of the second plurality of advertising events by linking keys. - View Dependent Claims (25, 26, 27, 28)
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29. A system for attributing a plurality of conversion events to a plurality of media events, the system comprising:
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at least one database configured to store a training set comprised of known conversion event-media event pairs; and a processor, communicatively coupled to the at least one database, and configured to; train a supervised model using the training set; identify a plurality of conversion events having unknown attribution, wherein each of the plurality of conversion events comprises purchase of a product or a service; and use the model to determine probabilistic attributions for the plurality of conversion events, the probabilistic attribution for a conversion event comprising one or more of a plurality of media events having a highest probability of having caused the conversion event, wherein the conversion event is not linked to any of the plurality of media events by linking keys. - View Dependent Claims (30, 31, 32)
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Specification