System and method for analyzing effectiveness of distributing emergency supplies in the event of disasters

• US 8,788,247 B2
• Filed: 08/20/2008
• Issued: 07/22/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 08/20/2008
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Lee, Young Min
• Primary Examiner(s): Saxena, Akash
• Application Number:
  US12/194,993
• Publication Number:
  US 20100049485A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,162 Days
• Field of Search: 703/2, 703/3, 703/6, 705/7.12, 705/332, 705/338, 705/8, 705/28, 705/7.37, 701/204, 701/201, 706/13, 706/46, 706/47, 706/62
• US Class Current: 703/6
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/20 Design optimisation, verification or simulation optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders

Abstract

A computer-implemented method and system in one embodiment estimate the effectiveness of a dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disasters or in like scenarios, by simulating a flow of emergency supplies in a multi-echelon supply chain, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster. The performance metrics estimated in one embodiment include, but not limited to, overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies (e.g., shortage and surplus) and utilization of resources (e.g., shortage and surplus).

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for estimating effectiveness of a distribution or dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising:

simulating a flow of emergency supplies, including at least a flow of supplies from a source to a plurality of points in a supply chain then to one or more points of distribution, and at each point of the flow, availability of transportation fleet for moving the emergency supplies, transportation route and road conditions;

simulating dynamics of victims, including an arrival pattern and surge of victims at the one or more points of distribution;

simulating progression of disaster, including deteriorating of the road conditions; and

simulating dynamic interactions among the flow of emergency supplies, the dynamics of victims and the progression of disaster,

wherein the dynamic interactions comprise at least;

retrieving data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, updated by the simulating of the progression of disaster, for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims,

retrieving data associated with activated point of distribution, updated by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies, for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims,

wherein the simulating of the dynamics of victims is repeated using the retrieved data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, and the retrieved data associated with the activated point of distribution,

the further simulated dynamics of the victims comprising movement of at least some the victims from one point of distribution to another point of distribution,

retrieving data associated with the further simulated dynamics of the victims that is updated by the simulating of the dynamics of victims for use by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies, wherein the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies is repeated; and

determining overall effectiveness of a disaster response plan based on the data output from the dynamic interactions,

wherein the overall effectiveness is determined by at least one of;

analyzing a percentile of the victims covered over time, produced by the dynamic interactions,

analyzing a size of demand at the one or more points of distribution and how fast the demand is satisfied over time, produced by the dynamic interactions, and

analyzing utilization of transportation medium over time, produced by the dynamic interactions,

wherein said steps of simulating are performed by a computer processor.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating the flow of emergency supplies comprises, simulating multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, re-stocking policies, or combinations thereof.

3. The method of claim 1, further including simulating replenishment and cross-shipping as re-stocking policies in said simulating a flow of emergency supplies.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating dynamics of victims comprises simulating number of victims, arrival pattern and surge of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, intensity of disaster, switching of point of distributions for victims, or combinations thereof.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating progression of disaster comprises simulating severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster, or combinations thereof.

6. The method of claim 1, further including estimating an evolution of one or more performance metrics.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein said one or more performance metrics comprise overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies, utilization of resources, demand profiles or combinations thereof.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the inventory of supplies is measured according to shortage and surplus of emergency supplies.

9. The method of claim 7, wherein the utilization of resources is measured according to shortage and surplus of resources.

10. A system for estimating effectiveness of a distribution and dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising:

a computer processor;

a flow of emergency supplies simulator module executing on the computer processor and operable to simulate a flow of emergency supplies, including at least a flow of supplies from a source to a plurality of points in a supply chain then to one or more points of distribution, and at each point of the flow, availability of transportation fleet for moving the emergency supplies, transportation route and road conditions;

a dynamics of victims simulator module executing on the computer processor and operable to simulate dynamics of victims, including an arrival pattern and surge of victims at the one or more points of distribution; and

a progression of disaster simulator module executing on the computer processor and operable to simulate progression of disaster, including deteriorating of the road conditions;

said flow of emergency supplies simulator module, said dynamics of victims simulator module and said progression of disaster simulator module further operable to dynamically interact with one another

wherein the dynamically interacting comprise at least;

retrieving data comprising when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, that is updated by the progression of disaster simulator module for use by the dynamics of victims simulator module,

retrieving data comprising an activated point of distribution that is updated by the flow of emergency supplies simulator module for use by the dynamics of victims simulator module,

wherein the dynamics of victims simulator module further simulates the dynamics of the victims based on the retrieved data comprising when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, and the retrieved data associated with the activated point of distribution,

the further simulated dynamics of the victims comprising movement of at least some the victims from one point of distribution to another point of distribution,

retrieving data associated with the further simulated dynamics of the victims that is updated by the dynamics of victims simulator module for use by the flow of emergency supplies simulator module, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module further simulates the flow of emergency supplies; and

wherein overall effectiveness of a disaster response plan is determined based on the data output from the dynamic interactions,

wherein the overall effectiveness is determined by at least one of;

analyzing a percentile of the victims covered over time, produced by the dynamically interacting,

analyzing a size of demand at the one or more points of distribution and how fast the demand is satisfied over time, produced by the dynamically interacting, and

analyzing utilization of transportation medium over time, produced by the dynamically interacting.

11. The system of claim 10, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module simulates multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, re-stocking policies, or combinations thereof.

12. The system of claim 10, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module simulates replenishment and cross-shipping as re-stocking policies.

13. The system of claim 10, wherein the dynamics of victims simulator module simulates number of victims, arrival pattern and surge of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, intensity of disaster, switching of PODs for victims, or combinations thereof.

14. The system of claim 10, wherein the progression of disaster simulator module simulates severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster or combinations thereof.

15. The system of claim 10, further including a performance metrics estimator module operable to estimate an evolution of one or more performance metrics resulting from simulation of flow of emergency supplies, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein said one or more performance metrics comprise overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies, utilization of resources, demand profile or combinations thereof.

17. A non-transitory program storage device readable by a machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform a method of estimating effectiveness of a dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising:

simulating a flow of emergency supplies, including at least a flow of supplies from a source to a plurality of points in a supply chain then to one or more points of distribution, and at each point of the flow, availability of transportation fleet for moving the emergency supplies, transportation route and road conditions;

simulating dynamics of victims, including an arrival pattern and surge of victims at the one or more points of distribution;

simulating progression of disaster, including deteriorating of the road conditions,

said steps of simulating including

dynamic interactions among flow of emergency supplies, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster,

wherein the dynamic interactions comprise at least;

retrieving data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, that is updated by the simulating of the progression of disaster for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims,

retrieving data associated with activated point of distribution updated by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims,

wherein the simulating of the dynamics of victims is repeated using the retrieved data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, and the retrieved data associated with the activated point of distribution,

the further simulated dynamics of the victims comprising movement of at least some the victims from one point of distribution to another point of distribution,

retrieving data associated with the further simulated dynamics of the victims that is updated by the simulating of the dynamics of victims for use by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies, wherein the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies is repeated; and

determining overall effectiveness of a disaster response plan based on the data output from the dynamic interactions,

wherein the overall effectiveness is determined by at least one of;

analyzing a percentile of the victims covered over time, produced by the dynamic interactions,

analyzing a size of demand at the one or more points of distribution and how fast the demand is satisfied over time, produced by the dynamic interactions, and

analyzing utilization of transportation medium over time, produced by the dynamic interactions.

18. The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating the flow of emergency supplies comprises, simulating multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, and re-stocking policies.

19. The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating dynamics of victims further comprises, simulating number of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, level of victim patience in waiting on line for the emergency supplies and switching of PODs for victims.

20. The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating progression of disaster comprises simulating severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster or combinations thereof.