Generating current order fulfillment plans to influence expected future conditions

• US 8,818,836 B1
• Filed: 03/08/2013
• Issued: 08/26/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 09/27/2001
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Inventors: Brinkerhoff, Richard, Holden, Jeffrey Alan, Braumoeller, Erich, Lee, Dennis Chua
• Primary Examiner(s): Jeanty, Romain
• Application Number:
  US13/791,637
• Time in Patent Office: 536 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.25
• US Class Current: 705/7.25
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063 Operations research, analysis or management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0875 Itemisation or classification of parts, supplies or services, e.g. bill of materials
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A method, system, and computer-readable medium for dynamically generating actual fulfillment plans for a current order or a potential order so as to enhance the future fulfillment process for expected future orders is described. In some situations, actual delivery information based on one or more such actual fulfillment plans will then be provided to a customer, such as by displaying actual delivery date and/or time before or during the ordering process based on one or more actual fulfillment plans that can be or will be used to fulfill the order. A variety of types of criteria can be used to evaluate the effects of using a fulfillment plan to fulfill a current order, including criteria that consider the modeled future cost of fulfilling expected future orders, such as an overall cost of fulfilling all orders during a specified time period that is at least partially in the future.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

generating at a first time, by one or more configured computing system processors, predictions of future orders for indicated items, wherein the predicted future orders have not occurred by the first time;

receiving an order at a second time specifying one or more items, the second time being after the first time;

determining, by the one or more configured computing system processors, for a prior time period before the second time, deviations between items predicted to be ordered during the prior time period from the generated predictions and items actually ordered during the prior time period;

assigning, by the one or more configured computing system processors, for each of one or more fulfillment plans that are options for fulfilling the received order, a cost to the fulfillment plan based at least in part on whether use of the fulfillment plan for the received order assists in correcting the determined deviations; and

selecting a fulfillment plan from the one or more fulfillment plans to be used for fulfilling the received order based at least in part on the assigned cost to the selected fulfillment plan.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein generating, by the one or more configured computing system processors, of predictions of future orders is performed periodically, and wherein assigning a cost and selecting a fulfillment plan are performed for each of a plurality of received orders.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein the generating at the first time of the predictions of the future orders is performed in response to changes in a current condition at the first time.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the received order is a potential order that is identified before an instruction has been received to place the order.

5. The method of claim 1 further comprising adjusting the assigned cost to each of the one or more fulfillment plans based on whether a use of the fulfillment plan would produce a change in customer goodwill.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein the determined deviations cause a current imbalance between an actual amount and a desired amount of work at one or more distribution centers, and wherein the method further comprises adjusting the assigned cost for each of the one or more fulfillment plans based on costs of correcting at a future time the current imbalance for at least one of the one or more distribution centers.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein the determined deviations cause a current imbalance between an actual amount and a desired amount of inventory at one or more distribution centers, and wherein the method further comprises adjusting the assigned cost for each of the one or more fulfillment plans based on costs of correcting at a future time the current imbalance for at least one of the one or more distribution centers.

8. The method of claim 1 further comprising providing an indication of the selected fulfillment plan to initiate fulfilling of the received order based on the selected fulfillment plan.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having stored contents that configure a computing system to perform a method, the method comprising:

generating at a first time, by the configured computing system, predictions of future orders for items;

determining, by the configured computing system, for a time period after the first time, deviations between items predicted to be ordered during the time period from the generated predictions and items actually ordered during the time period;

receiving an order specifying one or more items;

assigning, by the configured computing system, for each of one or more fulfillment plans that are options for fulfilling the received order, a cost to the fulfillment plan based at least in part on whether use of the fulfillment plan for the received order assists in correcting the determined deviations; and

selecting a fulfillment plan from the one or more fulfillment plans to be used for fulfilling the received order based at least in part on the assigned cost to the selected fulfillment plan.

10. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9 wherein the assigned cost to each of the one or more fulfillment plans is further based in part on a direct cost associated with using the fulfillment plan to fulfill the received order.

11. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9 wherein the received order is a potential order that is identified before an instruction has been received to place the order.

12. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9 wherein the method further comprises adjusting the assigned cost for the selected fulfillment plan based on whether use of the selected fulfillment plan for the received order would produce a change in customer goodwill.

13. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9 wherein the determined deviations cause a current imbalance between an actual amount and a desired amount of work at one or more distribution centers, and wherein the method further comprises adjusting the assigned cost for each of the one or more fulfillment plans based on costs of correcting the current imbalance for at least one of the one or more distribution centers.

14. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9 wherein the determined deviations cause a current imbalance between an actual amount and a desired amount of inventory at one or more distribution centers, and wherein the method further comprises adjusting the assigned cost for each of the one or more fulfillment plans based on costs of correcting the current imbalance for at least one of the one or more distribution centers.

15. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9 wherein the predicted future orders have not occurred by the first time, and wherein the method further comprises providing an indication of the selected fulfillment plan to initiate fulfilling of the received order based on the selected fulfillment plan.

16. A configured computing system comprising:

one or more processors; and

one or more components configured to, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors;

generate predictions at a first time of future orders for items;

determine, for a time period after the first time, deviations between items predicted in the generated predictions to be ordered during the time period and items actually ordered during the time period;

receive an order specifying one or more items;

assign, for each of one or more fulfillment plans that are options for fulfilling the received order, a cost to the fulfillment plan based at least in part on whether use of the fulfillment plan for the received order assists in correcting the determined deviations; and

select a fulfillment plan from the one or more fulfillment plans for use in fulfilling the received order based at least in part on the assigned cost to the selected fulfillment plan.

17. The computing system of claim 16 wherein the assigned cost to each of the one or more fulfillment plans is further based in part on a direct cost associated with using the fulfillment plan to fulfill the received order.

18. The computing system of claim 16 wherein the received order is a potential order that is identified before an instruction has been received to place the order.

19. The computing system of claim 16 wherein the one or more components are further configured to adjust the assigned cost for the selected fulfillment plan based on whether use of the selected fulfillment plan for the received order would produce a change in customer goodwill.

20. The computing system of claim 16 wherein the determined deviations cause a current imbalance between an actual amount and a desired amount of work at one or more distribution centers, and wherein the one or more components are further configured to adjust the assigned cost for each of the one or more fulfillment plans based on costs of correcting the current imbalance for at least one of the one or more distribution centers.

21. The computing system of claim 16 wherein the determined deviations cause a current imbalance between an actual amount and a desired amount of inventory at one or more distribution centers, and wherein the one or more components are further configured to adjust the assigned cost for each of the one or more fulfillment plans based on costs of correcting the current imbalance for at least one of the one or more distribution centers.

22. The computing system of claim 16 wherein the predicted future orders have not occurred by the first time, and wherein the one or more components are further configured to provide an indication of the selected fulfillment plan to initiate fulfilling of the received order based on the selected fulfillment plan.