Path classification and estimation method and system for prognosticating asset life

• US 8,849,586 B1
• Filed: 11/28/2008
• Issued: 09/30/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 11/30/2007
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Intellectual Assets LLC
• Original Assignee: Intellectual Assets LLC
• Inventors: Garvey, Dustin R.
• Primary Examiner(s): Cherry, Stephen
• Application Number:
  US12/315,117
• Time in Patent Office: 2,132 Days
• Field of Search: 702/34
• US Class Current: 702/34
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0283 Predictive maintenance, e.g. involving the monitoring of a system and, based on the monitoring results, taking decisions on the maintenance schedule of the monitored system; Estimating remaining useful life [RUL] preventive maintenance, i.e. planning maintenance according to the available resources without monitoring the system G06Q10/06
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/00 Machine learning
• CPC Class Codes: G07C 3/08 Registering or indicating the production of the machine either with or without registering working or idle time

Abstract

Path classification and estimation method and system used in combination with a computer and memory for prognosticating the remaining useful life of an asset by classifying a current degradation path of a current asset as belonging to one or more of previously collected degradation paths of exemplary assets and using the resulting classifications to estimate the remaining useful life of the current asset.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for estimating a remaining useful life of a current asset, comprising the steps of:

obtaining exemplar degradation data from at least two example assets;

transforming the exemplar degradation data into functional approximations to obtain a plurality exemplar degradation paths;

acquiring current asset degradation data from a current asset;

transforming the current asset degradation data into a current functional approximation to obtain a current asset degradation path;

classifying the current asset degradation data by determining a plurality of similarities each quantifying a degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation paths; and

estimating, with a computer, a remaining useful life of the current asset using the determined plurality of similarities each quantifying the degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation paths.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the estimating step includes using at least one asset failure time extracted from the exemplar degradation data along with the determined plurality of similarities for estimating the remaining useful life of the current asset.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising a step of modifying the exemplar degradation data to accommodate a failure threshold.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising a step of communicating the estimated remaining useful life of the current asset to a remote computer.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising a step of displaying the estimated remaining useful life of the current asset on a display.

6. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having computer executable instructions for performing a method for estimating a remaining useful life of a current asset, the method comprising the steps of:

obtaining exemplar degradation data from at least two example assets;

transforming the exemplar degradation data into functional approximations to obtain a plurality exemplar degradation paths;

acquiring current asset degradation data from a current asset;

transforming the current asset degradation data into a current functional approximation to obtain a current asset degradation path;

classifying the current asset degradation data by determining a plurality of similarities each quantifying a degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation paths; and

estimating a remaining useful life of the current asset using the determined plurality of similarities each quantifying the degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation paths.

7. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 6 wherein the estimating step includes using at least one asset failure time extracted from the exemplar degradation data along with the determined plurality of similarities for estimating the remaining useful life of the current asset.

8. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 6 wherein the method further comprises a step of modifying the exemplar degradation data to accommodate a failure threshold.

9. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 6 wherein the method further comprises a step of communicating the estimated remaining useful life of the current asset to a remote computer.

10. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 6 wherein the method further comprises a step of displaying the estimated remaining useful life of the current asset on a display.

11. A computer-implemented method for estimating a remaining useful life of a current asset, comprising the steps of:

obtaining exemplar degradation data from at least two example assets;

approximating the exemplar degradation data using at least one mathematical function to obtain a plurality of exemplar degradation path functions;

acquiring current asset degradation data from a current asset;

approximating the current asset degradation data using at least one mathematical function to obtain a current asset degradation path function;

classifying the current asset degradation data by determining a plurality of similarities each quantifying a degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path function to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation path functions; and

estimating, with a computer, a remaining useful life of the current asset using the determined plurality of similarities each quantifying the degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path function to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation path functions.

12. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having computer executable instructions for performing a method for estimating a remaining useful life of a current asset, the method comprising the steps of:

obtaining exemplar degradation data from at least two example assets;

approximating the exemplar degradation data using at least one mathematical function to obtain a plurality of exemplar degradation path functions;

acquiring current asset degradation data from a current asset;

approximating the current asset degradation data using at least one mathematical function to obtain a current asset degradation path function;

classifying the current asset degradation data by determining a plurality of similarities each quantifying a degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path function to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation path functions; and

estimating, with a computer, a remaining useful life of the current asset using the determined plurality of similarities each quantifying the degree of similarity of the current asset degradation path function to at least one of the plurality of exemplar degradation path functions.