Methods and systems for optimizing production forecasts using statistically prioritized discrete modeling methodology

• US 8,856,018 B2
• Filed: 09/15/2008
• Issued: 10/07/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 09/15/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Lu, Roberto Francisco-Yi, Sundaram, Shankar, Wei, Tsao-Feng
• Primary Examiner(s): Pats, Justin M
• Assistant Examiner(s): Goldberg, Ivan R
• Application Number:
  US12/210,291
• Publication Number:
  US 20100070315A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,213 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7.22, 705/7.15, 705/7.13, 705/7.16
• US Class Current: 705/7.22
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06311 Scheduling, planning or task assignment for a person or group
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063114 Status monitoring or status determination for a person or group
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063116 Schedule adjustment for a person or group
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06312 Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06395 Quality analysis or management

Abstract

A computer-based method for dynamic path regeneration in a production environment as a function of stochastic event-driven parameters and constraints is described. The method includes examining existing status codes, for a plurality of remaining production jobs, to determine a current status for a production unit, applying at least one of predecessor relationships and successor relationships for the remaining production jobs to the existing status codes, analyzing historical job performance statistics for a number of previous production units based on production job performance data associated with the previous production units, and providing a user interface that depicts the remaining production jobs in order of criticality, the order of criticality determined based on the existing status codes, the at least one of predecessor relationships and successor relationships, and the analysis of the historical job performance statistics.

Claims

1. A computer-based method for dynamic path regeneration in a production environment as a function of stochastic event-driven parameters and constraints, said method comprising:

receiving a request for a current status of a completion of a production unit;

examining existing status codes with a processing device, for a plurality of remaining production jobs to be completed by a plurality of teams prior to the completion of the production unit, wherein each of the plurality of teams comprises a plurality of users;

applying, with the processing device, at least one of predecessor relationships and successor relationships for the remaining production jobs to the existing status codes;

analyzing, with the processing device, historical job performance statistics for a number of previous production units based on production job performance data associated with the previous production units;

forecasting consequences to the completion date of the production unit based on available resources, a delay as a result of the existing status codes, and predecessor relationships and successor relationships for the remaining production jobs;

identifying potential risks to the completion date of the production unit in a form of critical production jobs for the remaining production jobs;

determining an order of criticality of the plurality of remaining production jobs based on the delay as the result of the existing status codes, the at least one of predecessor relationships and successor relationships, the analysis of the historical job performance statistics, the forecasted consequences, and the identified potential risks;

determining a new critical path on the fly based on the order of criticality to present, for a user, higher priority jobs associated with each of the plurality of teams and each user on each of the plurality of teams from the remaining production jobs; and

presenting a user interface to each user on each of the plurality of teams, the user interface depicting a listing of the plurality of remaining production jobs in the order of criticality from most critical to less critical, the user interface further depicting which of the plurality of remaining production jobs are associated with each of the plurality of teams and each user on each of the plurality of teams, the order of criticality determined based on the existing status codes, the at least one of predecessor relationships and successor relationships, the analysis of the historical job performance statistics, the forecasted consequences, and the identified potential risks.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein examining existing status codes, for a plurality of remaining production jobs comprises collecting active and historical production job status codes into a database configured with an automatic refreshing mechanism for dynamically updating the database to reflect a current status for production jobs.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein examining existing status codes, for a plurality of remaining production jobs comprises automatically downloading production job status code data from a process simulation database based on at least one of a user defined schedule and a predetermined time interval.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein providing a user interface that depicts the remaining production jobs in order of criticality comprises dynamically presenting, based on the results of an algorithm, which production jobs are most critical to the overall completion date of a specific production unit.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein examining existing status codes to determine a current status for a production unit comprises inserting at least one of new production data into rows of production data and updating existing rows of production data.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein applying at least one of predecessor relationships and successor relationships for the remaining production jobs to the existing status codes comprises:

processing a set of tasks based on a given set of fixed flow diagrams; and

searching for the shortest total time to process all jobs in the system.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein analyzing historical job performance statistics for a number of previous production units comprises operating an algorithm to determine possible groups of production jobs to start.

8. A system comprising:

at least one computer configured to execute a computer program that includes a simulation model; and

a database containing data relating to active and historical production jobs including predecessor and successor relationships among active production jobs, production job schedules, production job task durations, and production job task dependencies, the simulation model to cause said computer to;

examine existing status codes relating to active production jobs to be completed by a plurality of teams prior to a completion of the production unit, wherein each of the plurality of teams comprises a plurality of users;

apply the predecessor and successor relationships to the active production jobs for the production unit;

analyze data relating to historical job production jobs for a number of previous production units based on production job performance data associated with the previous production units;

forecast consequences to the completion date of the production unit based on available resources, a delay as a result of the existing status codes, and predecessor relationships and successor relationships for the active production jobs;

identify potential risks to the completion date of the production unit in a form of critical production jobs for the active production jobs;

determine an order of criticality of the plurality of active production jobs for the completion of the production unit by a particular date based on the delay as the result of the existing status codes, the predecessor and successor relationships, the analysis of the historical job performance statistics, the forecasted consequences, and the identified potential risks;

determine a new critical path on the fly based on the order of criticality to present, for a user, higher priority jobs associated with each of the plurality of teams and each user on each of the plurality of teams from the active production jobs; and

provide a user interface that presents a list of the active production jobs in order from most critical to least critical, the user interface further depicting which of the active production jobs are associated with the user each of the plurality of teams and each user on each of the plurality of teams.

9. A system according to claim 8 wherein said computer is further programmed to reconfigure timing and sequencing of the active production jobs for the production unit.

10. A system according to claim 8 wherein to determine which of the active production jobs are most critical to the overall completion date of the production unit, said computer is further programmed to evaluate the production job schedules, the production job task durations, the production job task dependencies, and a production job resource availability to determine a timing and sequencing of production job tasks associated with the production unit.

11. A system according to claim 8 wherein said database is configured with an automatic refreshing mechanism for dynamically updating the current status of active production jobs based on at least one of a user defined schedule and a predetermined time interval.

12. A system according to claim 8 wherein to examine the data relating to the active production jobs to determine a current status, said computer is programmed to insert at least one of new production data into rows of production data and update existing rows of production data.

13. A system according to claim 8 wherein to apply the predecessor and successor relationships to the active production jobs, said computer is programmed to:

process a set of tasks based on a given set of fixed flow diagrams; and

search for the shortest total time to process all jobs in the system.

14. A system according to claim 8 wherein to analyze the data relating to historical production jobs, said computer is programmed to execute an algorithm to determine possible groups of production jobs to start.

15. A system according to claim 8 wherein the simulation model includes data relating to business logic, system attributes, an evaluation of input schedules, the production job task dependencies, resource availability, and functional testing simulations, and an algorithm, the algorithm operable to evaluate the data to determine a timing and a sequencing of tasks.