Method for computer-aided simulation of operating parameters of a technical system

• US 8,868,394 B2
• Filed: 05/06/2010
• Issued: 10/21/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 10/21/2008
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Siemens AG
• Original Assignee: Siemens AG
• Inventors: Montrone, Francesco, Schulte, Robert, Streer, Wolfgang, Sutor, Ariane
• Primary Examiner(s): Craig, Dwin M
• Assistant Examiner(s): OCHOA, JUAN CARLOS
• Application Number:
  US12/774,913
• Publication Number:
  US 20100287411A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,629 Days
• Field of Search: 703/13
• US Class Current: 703/13
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2111/08 Probabilistic or stochastic CAD
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/20 Design optimisation, verification or simulation optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30

Abstract

A method for computer-aided simulation of operating parameters of a technical system including a plurality of modules which each contain one or more components is provided. Failure events with associated downtimes for each component are simulated in a predetermined operating period using a first probability distribution for the moment of failure of the components and a second probability distribution for the length of the failure of the components, and a third probability distribution for a degree of reliability of the modules is determined. Based upon the probability distributions for the degrees of reliability of the modules, operating parameters of the technical system are simulated for the predetermined operating period. The method is used for any technical facilities, in particular for energy generation facilities.

Claims

1. A method for computer-aided simulation of operating parameters of a technical system, the technical system comprising a plurality of modules which each contain one or more components, the method comprising:

simulating operating parameters of the technical system, for the technical system being a fuel gasification of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) facility, for a predetermined operating period by simulating failure events and associated downtimes for each component of a module within the predetermined operating period using

a first probability distribution for a moment of failure of each component, and

a second probability distribution for a length of the failure of each component;

wherein a third probability distribution for a degree of reliability of each module is determined based upon the first and second probability distributions; and

wherein the simulating of the operating parameters of the technical system for the predetermined operating period is based upon the third probability distribution for the degree of reliability of each module.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein a Monte Carlo simulation is utilized for simulating the failure events and associated downtimes.

3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein a Monte Carlo simulation is used for simulating the operating parameters.

4. The method as claimed in claim 1,

wherein a plurality of simulations of failure events and associated downtimes are performed,

wherein failure events and associated downtimes are simulated in each simulation for all components of a module within the predetermined operating period,

wherein the degree of reliability of the module is determined as a portion of failure-free operating time of the module within the predetermined operating period by combining the components of the module via a fault tree, and

wherein the third probability distribution for the degree of reliability of the module is determined from frequencies of the degree of reliability calculated based upon the plurality of simulations.

5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the first probability distribution for the moment of failure of a component of a module is an exponential distribution.

6. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein a density of the first probability distribution is as follows:

f(t)=λ

e<sup>−

λ

t</sup>,

wherein t represents the moment of failure after activation of the component or re-activation of the component following a failure; and

wherein λ

=1/MTBF, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) being an average duration between two failures of the component.

7. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the second probability distribution for the length of the failure of a component of a module is an exponential distribution.

8. The method as claimed in claim 7, wherein a density of the second probability distribution is as follows:

g(x)=β

e<sup>−

β

x</sup>,

wherein x represents the length of a failure of the component; and

wherein β

=1/MDT, MDT (Mean Down Time) being the average duration of a failure of the component.

9. The method as claimed in claim 1,

wherein the operating parameters of the technical system comprise an overall degree of reliability of the technical system within the predetermined operating period,

wherein the overall degree of reliability is calculated based upon the third probability distributions for the degrees of reliability of the modules and by combining the modules via an error tree.

10. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the operating parameters of the technical system comprise output values representing a performance of the technical system.

11. The method as claimed in claim 10, wherein the output values are percental values and the technical system is dimensioned relative to a target performance of 100%.

12. The method as claimed in claim 10, wherein the output values describe a quantity of one or more products produced in the technical system.

13. The method as claimed in claim 10, wherein the output values describe a quantity of energy produced by the technical system.

14. The method as claimed in claim 10,

wherein an output value is predetermined for each combination of failed and non-failed modules of the technical system,

wherein a division of time intervals of an occurrence of various output values within the predetermined operating period is determined based upon the third probability distributions for the degrees of reliability of the modules.

15. The method as claimed in claim 14,

wherein a plurality of simulations of operating parameters of the technical system for the predetermined operating period based upon the third probability distributions for the degrees of reliability of the modules are performed,

wherein a division of time intervals of the occurrence of various output values within the predetermined operating period is simulated in each simulation, and

wherein an average distribution over all simulated divisions is identified.

16. The method as claimed in claim 14, wherein, when determining the division of time intervals of the occurrence of various output values within the predetermined operating period, planned maintenance intervals for the modules of the technical system are also considered.

17. The method as claimed in claim 15,

wherein an averaged output value is determined over the predetermined operating period in each simulation, and

wherein a distribution function is calculated based upon frequencies of the averaged output values.

18. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the operating parameters are simulated for a technical system being an energy generation facility or part of an energy generation facility, the energy generation facility being an IGCC facility.

19. A non-transitory computer readable medium storing computer executable instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform a method for simulation of operating parameters of a technical system, the technical system comprising a plurality of modules which each contain one or more components, the method comprising:

simulating operating parameters of a technical system for a rechnical system being a fiel gasification of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) facility, for a predetermined operating period by simulating failure events and associated downtimes for each component of a module within the predetermined operating period using

a first probability distribution for a moment of failure of each component, and

a second probability distribution for a length of the failure of each component;

wherein a third probability distribution for a degree of reliability of each module is determined based upon the first and second probability distributions; and

wherein the simulating of the operating parameters of the technical system for the predetermined operating period is based upon the third probability distribution for the degree of reliability of each module.