Dynamic prediction of risk levels for manufacturing operations through leading risk indicators
First Claim
1. A method for identifying a hidden process near-miss in a plant/facility operation, the method comprising:
- collecting measured data associated with at least one process variable, although without related adverse incident;
collecting long-term process data for a period preceding the collecting measured data wherein the long term process data is automatically updated over time;
determining normal values or value ranges, or combinations thereof, based on long-term process data, and comparing the measured data associated with the at least one process variable with the collected long-term process data to determine deviation there between measured data relative to determined normal value(s), wherein a measure or extent, or both, of the deviation identifies at least one hidden process near-miss.
1 Assignment
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Accused Products
Abstract
Provided are methodologies to properly assess and manage operational risks at operations sites, e.g., a manufacturing, production or processing facility, such as a refinery, chemical plant, fluid-catalytic-cracking units, or nuclear energy plant, or a biological or waste management facility, airport or even financial institutions, or at any facility in which operations are often accompanied by risk associated with many high-probability, low-consequence events, often resulting in near-misses. In some operations, processes are monitored by alarms, but the invention operates on either process data or alarm data. The methods are based upon measurement of one or more variables, and/or utilization and management of the concept of “hidden process near-miss(es)” to identify a change or escalation, if any, in probability of occurrence of an adverse incident. The methodologies combine a plurality of subsets (also useful independently) of dynamically calculated leading risk indicators for dynamic risk management.
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Citations
28 Claims
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1. A method for identifying a hidden process near-miss in a plant/facility operation, the method comprising:
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collecting measured data associated with at least one process variable, although without related adverse incident; collecting long-term process data for a period preceding the collecting measured data wherein the long term process data is automatically updated over time; determining normal values or value ranges, or combinations thereof, based on long-term process data, and comparing the measured data associated with the at least one process variable with the collected long-term process data to determine deviation there between measured data relative to determined normal value(s), wherein a measure or extent, or both, of the deviation identifies at least one hidden process near-miss. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
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10. A method for determining operational fitness at a plant/facility, the method comprising:
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identifying near-misses based upon information extracted from data provided by one or more measurable criteria for automatic detection and classification of observed near-misses and hidden process near-misses, the criteria identified in the group consisting of;
abnormal events analysis, time segment analysis, dynamic risk analysis; and
real-time leading signals calculation(s);compiling and processing the identified information from the measurable criteria for dynamically and automatically determining change or escalation, on-demand, in real-time, periodically or in combinations thereof of the identified information as compared with that of corresponding data from a previous time period or measurement, or within a designated test period; and
reporting same. - View Dependent Claims (11, 12, 13, 14, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28)
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15. A method for identifying a hidden process near-miss in an alarm-monitored plant/facility operation, the method comprising:
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collecting measured alarm data associated with at least one alarm-monitored process variable, although without related adverse incident; collecting long-term alarm data for a period preceding the collecting measured alarm data; and determining normal values or value ranges, or combinations thereof, based on long-term alarm data comparing the measured alarm data associated with the at least one alarm-monitored process variable with the collected long-term alarm data to determine deviation between the collected alarm data relative to determined normal value(s), wherein a measure and extent of the deviation identifies and characterizes at least one alarm data-related hidden process near-miss. - View Dependent Claims (16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
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Specification