Trend based predictive traffic
First Claim
Patent Images
1. A method for predicting traffic speeds, comprising:
- calculating, by a processor, speed differences between real time data and historic data for a plurality of epochs;
calculating, by the processor, an average difference of the plurality of epochs, weighting the difference in the most recent epoch most and the difference in the oldest epoch least;
calculating, by the processor, a rate of change of the difference between the real time data and the historic data in the last two epochs;
calculating, by the processor, a trend value as a sum of the calculated average difference and the calculated rate of change;
predicting, by the processor, a speed at a next epoch as a sum of the historic speed for the next epoch and the calculated trend value; and
predicting, by the processor, a speed at a future epoch by applying the trend value in a decreasing fashion.
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Abstract
A method for predicting traffic wherein the method is a trend based extrapolation method that uses real time traffic data and historic traffic data to generate a predictive traffic product. The predictive traffic product provides expected traffic speeds for the short term future, for example, between two to twelve hours into the future.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method for predicting traffic speeds, comprising:
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calculating, by a processor, speed differences between real time data and historic data for a plurality of epochs; calculating, by the processor, an average difference of the plurality of epochs, weighting the difference in the most recent epoch most and the difference in the oldest epoch least; calculating, by the processor, a rate of change of the difference between the real time data and the historic data in the last two epochs; calculating, by the processor, a trend value as a sum of the calculated average difference and the calculated rate of change; predicting, by the processor, a speed at a next epoch as a sum of the historic speed for the next epoch and the calculated trend value; and predicting, by the processor, a speed at a future epoch by applying the trend value in a decreasing fashion. - View Dependent Claims (2)
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3. A computer implemented method comprising:
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receiving, by a processor, an expected speed value of at least a portion of a road for each of a successive plurality of previously occurring time periods prior to or including a current time period and an expected speed value for a yet to occur time period subsequent thereto; receiving, by the processor, an actual speed value for the portion of the road for each of the successive plurality of previously occurring time periods prior to the current time period; computing, by the processor, a speed value trend based on the received expected speed values for each of the successive plurality of previously occurring time periods prior to the current time period and the received actual speed values; and adjusting, by a processor, the expected speed value for the portion of the road for at least the yet to occur time period based on the computed speed value trend. - View Dependent Claims (4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. A system comprising:
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a processor and a memory coupled therewith; and first logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to receive an expected speed value of at least a portion of a road for each of a successive plurality of previously occurring time periods prior to or including a current time period and an expected speed value for a yet to occur time period subsequent thereto; second logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to receive an actual speed value for the portion of the road for each of the successive plurality of previously occurring time periods prior to the current time period; third logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to compute a speed value trend based on the received expected speed values for the successive plurality of previously occurring time periods and the received actual speed values; and fourth logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to adjust the expected speed value for the portion of the road for at least the yet to occur time period based on the computed speed value trend. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
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Specification