Computerized target hostility determination and countermeasure

• US 8,924,325 B1
• Filed: 02/08/2011
• Issued: 12/30/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 02/08/2011
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Lockheed Martin Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Lockheed Martin Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Inventors: Schuck, Tod M.
• Primary Examiner(s): Chaki, Kakali
• Assistant Examiner(s): Wu, Fuming
• Application Number:
  US13/023,227
• Time in Patent Office: 1,421 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 706/45
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/046 Forward inferencing; Production systems

Abstract

A system for evaluating the threat posed by sensed targets includes sources of predetermined threat hypotheses and doctrinal information, and a Choquet threat discernment processor to identify a threat level represented by each target. A threshold arrangement is coupled evaluates the threat level, and deems those threat levels above the threshold to be suitable for the taking of countermeasures.

Claims

1. A system for evaluating the threat posed by sensed targets and for taking countermeasures against certain threats, said system comprising:

at least one memory device for storing predetermined threat hypotheses and doctrinal information representing the nature of a particular type of threat, and a risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat, beyond which countermeasures are taken against said threat according to said doctrinal information;

a Choquet threat discernment processor, the threat discernment processor responsive to said threat hypotheses and doctrinal information stored on the at least one memory device, and configured to execute instructions for performing the step of;

identifying a threat level represented by each sensed target;

a threshold arrangement for evaluating the threat level; and

countermeasures responsive to said threshold arrangement for engaging those targets in which the threat levels lie above the threshold,

wherein said Choquet threat discernment processor;

a) determines certainty values representing an accuracy level of the target data for a sensed target as sensed by a given sensor;

b) determines individual importance value weights, one for each of said predetermined threat hypotheses, each said importance value weight of the sensed target data having a value representing the degree of correlation of the sensed target data with a given one of said predetermined threat hypotheses;

c) determines Certainty Equivalent (CE) values for each set of threat hypotheses based on Choquet statistical processing of mean and variance for said given individual importance value weights for a given set of certainty values of the sensed target data and the risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat from said doctrinal information, wherein each threat hypothesis has a corresponding CE value corresponding to the calculated threat level of the sensed target.

2. A method for evaluating the threat posed by sensed targets, and for taking countermeasures against targets posing particular levels of threat, said method comprising the steps of:

sensing targets for generating target-representative signals;

obtaining threat hypotheses representing the nature of a particular type of threat;

obtaining doctrinal information providing a risk tolerance attributed to a particular threat, beyond which countermeasures are taken against said threat according to said doctrinal information;

Choquet processing said target-representative signals, with said threat hypotheses and said doctrinal information for identifying a threat level represented by each sensed target, including determining an individual importance value weight for each of said threat hypotheses representing the degree of correlation of the sensed target data with a given one of said threat hypotheses; and

determining Certainty Equivalent (CE) values for each set of threat hypotheses based on Choquet statistical processing of mean and variance for said given individual importance value weights for a given set of certainty values representing an accuracy level of the sensed target data, and the risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat from said doctrinal information, wherein each threat hypothesis has a corresponding CE value corresponding to a calculated threat level of the sensed target;

comparing said threat level with a threshold to thereby identify those threat levels exceeding said threshold; and

initiating countermeasures against those targets exceeding said threshold.

3. A system for determining the threat level associated with sensed targets, and for taking countermeasures against targets deemed to be a threat, said system comprising:

a suite of sensors, said suite of sensors including at least a first sensor for sensing a target and for producing target signals representing the sensed information relating to said target;

at least (a) a kinematic information processor for extracting kinematic target information from said target signals, (b) a cooperative information processor for extracting cooperative information from said target signals, (c) an unintentionally cooperative information processor and (d) a noncooperative information processor for extracting noncooperative information from additional signals;

a source of predetermined threat hypotheses representing the nature of a particular type of threat;

a source of predetermined tactical or other policies, doctrine, andor procedures providing a risk tolerance attributed to a particular threat, beyond which countermeasures are taken against said threat according to said doctrinal information;

a threat discernment processor coupled to receive such of said kinematic target information, said intentionally cooperative information, said unintentionally cooperative information, said noncooperative information as may exist, and also coupled to receive said predetermined threat hypotheses, said policies, doctrine, andor procedures, for performing Choquet threat discernment processing to identify a threat level represented by each target, said threat discernment processor configured to determine an individual importance value weight for each of said threat hypotheses representing the degree of correlation of the sensed target data with a given one of said threat hypotheses; and

determine Certainty Equivalent (CE) values for each set of threat hypotheses representing a calculated threat level of the sensed target and based on Choquet statistical processing of mean and variance for said given individual importance value weights for a given set of sensor signal certainty values representing an accuracy level of the sensed target data, and the risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat from said doctrinal information;

a threshold arrangement coupled to receive said threat level, for deeming those threat levels above the threshold to be suitable for the taking of countermeasures; and

countermeasures responsive to the deeming of threat levels above said threshold for application of countermeasures against the target(s) so deemed.

4. A system according to claim 3, wherein said threat discernment processor comprises:

a certainty value assigner for assigning said sensor signal certainty values to said target signals and additional signals representing the sensed information relating to said target;

a certainty value comparator for comparing the certainty values assigned to said target signals and additional signals to determine if said certainty values are equivalent;

a Sugeno fuzzy root calculator for calculating Sugeno fuzzy roots by way of said equivalent certainty values if said pairs are equivalent and for calculating Sugeno fuzzy roots by way of non-equivalent certainty values if said pairs are not equivalent; and

a Sugeno fuzzy root disposer for discarding said fuzzy Sugeno roots if they are not valid and for storing said fuzzy Sugeno roots if they are valid.

5. A system according to claim 4, further comprising a source of hypotheses as to the nature of the threat, and wherein said threat discernment processor further comprises:

an individual importance value assigner for assigning individual importance values to said target signals and additional signals representing the sensed information relating to said target;

an aggregation factor calculator for calculating aggregation values using said target signals and additional signals with individual importance values and said fuzzy Sugeno roots;

an interval calculator for calculating delta(i) intervals from said aggregation values; and

a Choquet value calculator for calculating Choquet values from the individual importance values and the delta(i) intervals.

6. A system according to claim 3 further comprising a source of certainty values representing an a priori determination as to the nature of the countermeasures to be adopted based on the risk tolerance threshold;

and wherein said threat discernment processor further comprises;

a prioritizer for prioritizing said hypotheses based on said Certainty Equivalent; and

an answer processor for declaring NO ANSWER if no hypothesis exceeds the Certainty Equivalent and for declaring the most likely hypothesis to be the answer if that hypothesis exceeds the Certainty Equivalent.

7. A system for determining the threat level associated with one or more sensed targets, and for taking countermeasures against targets deemed to be a threat, said system comprising:

a plurality of sensors for sensing at least one target, and for producing target signals representing the sensed information relating to said at least one target;

at least one of (a) a kinematic information processor for extracting kinematic target information from said target signals, (b) a cooperative information processor for extracting cooperative information from said target signals, (c) an unintentionally cooperative information processor, and (d) an other processor for extracting non-cooperative information from said target signals;

a source of predetermined threat hypotheses;

a source of predetermined tactical or other policies, doctrine, andor procedures;

a threat discernment processor coupled to receive said kinematic target information if such exists, said intentionally cooperative information if such exists, said unintentionally cooperative information if such exists, and said non-cooperative information if such exists, said predetermined threat hypotheses, and said policies, doctrine, andor procedures, for performing Choquet threat discernment processing to identify a threat level represented by each target, said threat discernment processor configured to determine an individual importance value weight for each of said threat hypotheses representing the degree of correlation of the sensed target data with a given one of said threat hypotheses; and

determine Certainty Equivalent (CE) values for each set of threat hypotheses based on Choquet statistical processing of mean and variance for said given individual importance value weights for a given set of certainty values representing an accuracy level of the sensed target data, and the risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat from said doctrinal information, wherein each threat hypothesis has a corresponding CE value corresponding to a calculated threat level of the sensed target;

a risk tolerance threshold arrangement coupled to receive said threat level, for deeming those threat levels above the threshold to be suitable for the taking of countermeasures; and

countermeasures responsive to threat levels above said threshold for initiating countermeasures against the target(s) having threat levels above said threshold.

8. A system for determining the threat level associated with one or more sensed targets, and for taking countermeasures against targets deemed to be a threat, said system comprising:

sensors for sensing at least one target, and for producing target signals representing the sensed information relating to said target;

at least one of (a) a kinematic information processor for extracting kinematic target information from said target signals, (b) a cooperative information processor for extracting cooperative information from said target signals, (c) an unintentionally cooperative information processor, and (d) an other processor for extracting non-cooperative information from said target signals;

a source of predetermined threat hypotheses;

a source of predetermined tactical or other policies, doctrine, andor procedures;

a threat discernment processor coupled to receive such of (i) said kinematic target information, (ii) said cooperative information, (iii) said unintentionally cooperative information, and (iv) said non-cooperative information as may exist, and also coupled to receive said predetermined threat hypothesis, and said policies, doctrine, andor procedures, for performing Choquet threat discernment processing to identify a threat level represented by each target, said threat discernment processor configured to determine an individual importance value weight for each of said threat hypotheses representing the degree of correlation of the sensed target data with a given one of said threat hypotheses; and

determine Certainty Equivalent (CE) values for each set of threat hypotheses based on Choquet statistical processing of mean and variance for said given individual importance value weights for a given set of certainty values representing an accuracy level of the sensed target data, and the risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat from said doctrinal information, wherein each threat hypothesis has a corresponding CE value corresponding to a calculated threat level of the sensed target;

a threshold arrangement coupled to receive said threat level, for deeming those threat levels above the threshold to be suitable for the taking of countermeasures; and

countermeasures responsive to the deeming of threat levels above said threshold for application of countermeasures against the target(s) so deemed.

9. A system for evaluating the threat posed by sensed targets for taking countermeasures against certain target threats, said system comprising:

a memory device storing threat hypotheses and doctrinal information representing the nature of a particular type of threat, and a risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat, beyond which countermeasures are taken against said threat according to said doctrinal information;

a Choquet threat discernment processor responsive to said threat hypotheses and doctrinal information stored on the memory device and configured to identify a threat level represented by each sensed target by;

a) determining certainty values representing accuracy levels of sensed target data corresponding to a given sensor;

b) determining individual importance weights, one for each of said threat hypotheses, based on the sensed target data, each individual importance weight having a value representing the degree of correlation of the sensed target data with a given one of said predetermined threat hypotheses;

c) determining Certainty Equivalent (CE) values for each set of threat hypotheses based on Choquet statistical processing of mean and variance for individual importance weights for a given set of certainty values of the sensed target data and the risk tolerance attributed to that particular type of threat from said doctrinal information, each threat hypothesis having a corresponding CE value representing the calculated threat level of the sensed target;

a threshold arrangement for comparing each said calculated threat level with a threshold to thereby identify those threat levels exceeding said threshold for initiating countermeasures against said corresponding targets.

10. A system according to claim 9, wherein said Choquet threat discernment processor comprises:

a certainty value assigner for assigning said certainty values representing accuracy levels of sensed target data corresponding to a given sensor;

a certainty value comparator for comparing the certainty values assigned to said multiple sensors to determine if said certainty values are equivalent;

a Sugeno fuzzy root calculator for calculating Sugeno fuzzy roots by way of said equivalent certainty values if said pairs are equivalent and for calculating Sugeno fuzzy roots by way of non-equivalent certainty values if said pairs are not equivalent; and

a Sugeno fuzzy root disposer for discarding said fuzzy Sugeno roots if they are not valid and for storing said fuzzy Sugeno roots if they are valid.

11. A system according to claim 10, wherein said Choquet threat discernment processor further comprises:

an individual importance value assigner for assigning individual importance values representing the sensed information relating to said target,

an aggregation factor calculator for calculating aggregation values using said target data with individual importance values and said fuzzy Sugeno roots;

an interval calculator for calculating delta(i) intervals from said aggregation values; and

a Choquet value calculator for calculating Choquet values from the individual importance values and the delta(i) intervals.

12. A system according to claim 9, further comprising a source of certainty values representing an a priori determination as to the nature of the countermeasures to be adopted based on the risk tolerance threshold;

and wherein said Choquet threat discernment processor further comprises;

a calculator that calculates the Choquet statistics from said individual importance values, the mean and variance from said Choquet statistics, the Certainty Equivalent from the mean and variance and from the risk tolerance threshold;

a prioritizer for prioritizing said hypotheses based on said Certainty Equivalent; and

an answer processor for declaring NO ANSWER if no hypothesis exceeds the Certainty Equivalent and for declaring the most likely hypothesis to be the answer if that hypothesis exceeds the Certainty Equivalent.