Analyzing voyage efficiencies

• US 8,935,174 B2
• Filed: 01/16/2009
• Issued: 01/13/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 01/16/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Chen, Henry, Ballou, Philip J., Murk, John R.
• Primary Examiner(s): HARRINGTON, MICHAEL P
• Application Number:
  US12/355,152
• Publication Number:
  US 20100185471A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,188 Days
• Field of Search: 701/123, 701/201, 701/202, 701/31.9, 701/31.1, 701/33.4, 705/1.1, 705/7.11, 705/7.27, 705/7.36, 705/7.38, 705/330, 700/28, 700/29, 700/30, 700/31, 703/7, 703/8
• US Class Current: 705/7.27
• CPC Class Codes: G01C 21/203 Specially adapted for sailing ships
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0639 Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/40 Business processes related to the transportation industry shipping G06Q10/083

Abstract

A method, apparatus, and computer program product are present for analyzing voyage efficiency. Historical data for a completed voyage of a ship is obtained. A baseline voyage solution for a completed voyage is generated with a software application executing on a processor unit using a model of the ship and the historical data. The baseline voyage solution is compared to an actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage to form a comparison.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing voyage efficiency, the method comprising:

creating an initial model of a ship, the initial model configured to perform simulations and generate voyage solutions for the ship on an ocean, the initial model incorporating detailed ship-specific data;

obtaining historical data for a completed voyage of the ship on the ocean, historical data including at least weather and ocean information;

simulating the previously completed voyage for the ship using the initial model to form a simulated voyage;

comparing performance data for the previously completed voyage to performance data for the simulated voyage to identify a correlation coefficient comprising at least a propeller wake factor;

changing the initial model using the correlation coefficient to generate a changed initial model;

generating a baseline voyage solution by a processor for the completed voyage with a software application executing on a processor unit using the changed initial model of the ship and the historical data;

generating an actual voyage solution for the ship;

identifying a first number of parameters generated for the baseline voyage solution;

identifying a second number of parameters generated for the actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage;

comparing on the processor the first number of parameters to the second number of parameters to form a comparison, including comparing each segment in a plurality of segments in the baseline voyage solution for the completed voyage to a corresponding segment in a plurality of segments in the actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage to form the comparison in order to determine the voyage efficiency, the comparing identifying a correlation coefficient between the baseline voyage solution and the actual voyage solution comprising a propeller wake factor, and the comparing including identifying a difference between the first number of parameters the second number of parameters to form the comparison expressed as a percentage;

adjusting the changed initial model with the correlation coefficient to match an actual recorded ship performance, including fuel efficiency, speed, and probability of arriving on time at the destination, to form an adjusted model; and

generating a new voyage solution based on the comparison and the adjusted model.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the ship is a first ship, the historical data is the historical data for the first ship, the completed voyage is a first completed voyage, the baseline voyage solution is a first baseline voyage solution for the first ship, the software application is a first software application, the model is the first model of the first ship, the actual voyage solution is the actual voyage solution for the first ship, and the comparison is a first comparison for the first ship and further comprising:

obtaining the historical data for a number of completed voyages for a number of ships;

generating a number of baseline voyage solutions for the number of completed voyages with a number of software applications using a number of models of the number of ships and the historical data;

comparing the number of baseline voyage solutions to a number of corresponding actual voyage solutions used for the number of completed voyages to form a number of comparisons; and

analyzing the first comparison and the number of comparisons to identify which one of the first software applications and the number of the software applications is more accurate.

3. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

repeating the steps of simulating the previously completed voyage for the ship using the initial model to form a simulated voyage solution;

comparing the performance data for the previously completed voyage to performance data for the simulated voyage to identify the correlation coefficient; and

calibrating the initial model using the correlation coefficient until a desired correlation coefficient is obtained to form the model of the ship.

4. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

changing the model of the ship to form a new model of the ship based on the correlation coefficient;

wherein generating a new voyage solution comprises a new voyage solution for the completed voyage with a software application executing on a processor unit using the new model of the ship and the historical data;

adjusting the correlation coefficient for modifications made to the ship hull design, changes in hull or propeller roughness, fuel quality, or use of different hull coating materials; and

comparing the new voyage solution to the actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage to form a new comparison.

5. The method of claim 4 further comprising:

making a change to the ship based on the change to the model of the ship if the new comparison provides better performance than the comparison.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the performance is selected from at least one of fuel efficiency, speed, and a probability of arriving on time at a destination.

7. The method of claim 5, wherein the change to the ship is selected from at least one of painting a hull of the ship, cleaning the hull of the ship, polishing a number of propellers for the ship, adding a number of new propellers for the ship, and modifying the hull.

8. The method of claim 4 further comprising:

adjusting the correlation coefficient for missing or erroneous data; and

adjusting the correlation coefficient when additional data is collected for the ship performance after maintenance or repair.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the model of the ship includes at least one of a ship hull design, a number of engine power characteristics, a number of propeller curves, ship draft, and a number of safe operating limits.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data comprises at least one of wind, wave height, current, and temperature.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein voyage efficiency is fuel consumption for the baseline voyage solution divided by actual fuel consumption for each individual segment of the completed voyage.

12. The method of claim 1, further comprising generating a second correlation coefficients to adjust for hull roughness.

13. The method of claim 12 further comprising generating a plurality of correlation coefficients to adjust for differences in draft, differences in trim, modifications to ship, engine tune, and fuel quality.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the detailed ship specific data includes ship hull shape, appendages, engine power characteristics, propeller curves, see-keeping models, safe operating limits, ship draft, and trim.

15. A data processing system comprising:

a storage device, wherein the storage device includes program code; and

a processor unit in communication with the storage device, wherein the processor unit is capable of executing the program code to create an initial model of a ship, the initial model configured to perform simulations and generate voyage solutions for the ship on an ocean, the initial model incorporating detailed ship-specific data;

obtain historical data for a completed voyage of the ship, historical data including at least weather and ocean information;

generate a baseline voyage solution for the completed voyage with a software application executing on a processor unit using a model of the ship and the historical data;

generate an actual voyage solution for the ship;

identify a first number of parameters generated for the baseline voyage solution;

identify a second number of parameters generated for the actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage; and

compare the first number of parameters to the second number of parameters to form a comparison, including comparing each segment in a plurality of segments in the baseline voyage solution for the completed voyage to a corresponding segment in a plurality of segments in the actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage to form the comparison in order to determine the voyage efficiency, the comparing identifying a correlation coefficient between the baseline voyage solution and the actual voyage solution comprising a propeller wake factor, and the comparing including identifying a difference between the first number of parameters the second number of parameters to form the comparison expressed as a percentage;

adjust the initial model with the correlation coefficient to match the actual recorded ship performance, including at least one of fuel efficiency, speed, and probability of arriving on time at the destination, to form an adjusted model; and

generate a new voyage solution based on the comparison and the adjusted model.

16. The data processing system of claim 15, wherein the ship is a first ship, historical data is the historical data for the first ship, the completed voyage is a first completed voyage, the baseline voyage solution is a first baseline voyage solution for the first ship, the software application is a first software application, the model is a first model of the first ship, and the comparison is a first comparison for the first ship and wherein the processor unit further executes the program code to obtain historical data for a number of completed voyages for a number of ships;

generate a number of baseline voyage solutions for the number of completed voyages with a number of software applications using a number of models of the number of ships and the historical data;

compare the number of baseline voyage solutions to a number of corresponding actual voyage solutions used for the number of completed voyages to form a number of comparisons; and

analyze the first comparison and the number of comparisons to identify which one of the first software application and the number of software applications is more accurate.

17. A non-transitory computer program product for analyzing voyage efficiency, the computer program product comprising:

a computer recordable storage medium;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for creating an initial model of a ship, the initial model configured to perform simulations and generate voyage solutions for the ship on an ocean, the initial model incorporating detailed ship specific data;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for obtaining historical data for a completed voyage of the ship, historical data including at least weather and ocean information;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for generating a baseline voyage solution for the completed voyage with a software application executing on a processor unit using a model of the ship and the historical data;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for generating an actual voyage solution for the ship;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for identifying a first number of parameters generated for the baseline voyage solution;

identifying a second number of parameters generated for the actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage; and

comparing the first number of parameters to the second number of parameters to form a comparison, including comparing each segment in a plurality of segments in the baseline voyage solution for the completed voyage to a corresponding segment in a plurality of segments in the actual voyage solution used for the completed voyage to form the comparison in order to determine the voyage efficiency, the comparing identifying a correlation coefficient between the baseline voyage solution and the actual voyage solution comprising a propeller wake factor, and the comparing including identifying a difference between the first number of parameters the second number of parameters to form the comparison expressed as a percentage;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for adjusting the initial model with the correlation coefficient to match the actual recorded ship performance, including at least one of fuel efficiency, speed, and probability of arriving on time at the destination, to form an adjusted model; and

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for generating a new voyage solution based on the comparison and the adjusted model.